Dear Investors,

Please find below the July 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler IG Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-ig-portfolio-july-fb0

A powerful MacroVoices interview with RickRule and Erik Townsend —reminding us that cheap, abundant energy is the true engine of prosperity. Because in the end, everything is energy...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyrbwHbpcis

A chillingly brilliant dispatch from Pepe Escobar, exposing Donald Copperfield’s delusional takes on BRICS—where his provocations toward China and India only tighten the grip of the emerging Triumvirate. Despite the West’s Malthusian fantasies, the new world order is coalescing, and it won’t ask for permission.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NHSIeOP3O0

The rockstar CEO of the Magnificent 7 chip giant has styled himself as the peacemaker-in-chief between the U.S. and China to protect market share—but behind the scenes, his charm offensive likely came at the price of cooperation with U.S. alphabet agencies, quietly embedding backdoors in chips sold to Beijing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/31/china-probes-nvidia-h20-chips-for-tracking-risks.html

In a world tearing at the seams, U.S. multinationals clinging to China as their golden goose are sleepwalking into a geopolitical buzzsaw—and the wake-up call will be anything but gentle.

As always with Donald Copperfield, it's all smoke, mirrors, and TACO-ing when action is needed. Case in point: his grand copper tariff announcement sounded tough—until he quietly exempted copper cathodes, the main form of refined copper the U.S. actually imports. Cue the brutal unwinding of bullish bets that had banked on a full-spectrum tariff. Classic Copperfield—headline first, substance optional.

In true Orwellian fashion, Donald Copperfield invoked the Defence Production Act to decree that copper—once just a metal—is now a matter of national security. By 2027, 25% of high-grade scrap and raw copper must be produced and consumed within U.S. borders, rising to 40% by decade’s end. The rationale?

An overreliance on foreign powers, a gutted industrial base, and the quiet admission that one unnamed nation—clearly China—has monopolized the global smelting game. In this new era, even atoms answer to the state.

While the Manipulator-in-Chief brags online about the “booming” U.S. economy, July’s nonfarm payrolls print tells a different story. Seasonally adjusted jobs rose just 73k — well below consensus. Even worse, May and June were quietly revised down by a whopping 258k. June’s once-confident 147k gain? Now basically flat at 14k.

The government — once the heroic job engine — added only 11k jobs in June, down from the original 70k fantasy. Local governments even lost jobs in July. Private payrolls added just 83k, with healthcare the only bright spot. Meanwhile, sectors like manufacturing and professional services dragged heavily. The three-month average? A pathetic 35k, well below the 80k–100k needed to keep up with population growth — and that’s before correcting for the BLS’s birth-death model, which may be overstating gains by 80k a month. Take that out, and we’re in negative territory since Trump's so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs.

Unemployment rate jumped to 4.25%, even as the labor force shrank. The participation rate dropped again to 62.22%. In other words, fewer people are working or even trying to.

Sure, workers clocked a few more hours and earned a touch more pay, but the big picture is clear: this labour market isn’t just cooling — it’s quietly cracking. Despite upbeat headlines, the unemployment rate has remained above its two-year average since September 2023—an historically reliable precursor to economic downturns over the next 12 to 24 months.

In a nutshell, the jobs market just tripped over a massive downward revision, shrinking participation, and payroll gains that are vanishing on arrival.

As the self-anointed Peacemaker-in-Chief flirts with nuclear escalation, the economic battlefield at home continues to bleed. The ISM Manufacturing Index dropped another point to 48 in July, marking five consecutive months in contraction territory—an unmistakable signal of industrial retreat. Factory employment, now at its weakest in over five years, is being strategically downsized as manufacturers brace for prolonged economic warfare triggered by tariffs and waning demand. According to ISM, companies are entrenched in defensive cost control, holding fire on new hires even as production marginally ticks up. Of the five components of the index, only production remained in expansion, while orders, employment, and export demand all stayed in the red.

A tactical reprieve came from falling input costs, with the “prices paid” measure registering its sharpest drop since September. But make no mistake—beneath the surface, the industrial complex is under siege, and the latest salvo of tariffs may only deepen the contraction.

In a nutshell, as a fresh tariff offensive was just launched, America’s manufacturing front retreats deeper into contraction, with factories cutting troops and bracing for economic crossfire.

U.S. consumer sentiment ticked up to a five-month high in July—because apparently a stock market rally is all it takes to convince people things are fine. Inflation expectations dropped, with consumers now hoping prices will only rise 3.4% over the next decade, the lowest dose of inflation since January. Yet, in classic whiplash fashion, those same consumers also expect business conditions to stay lousy and unemployment to climb.

In short: “We feel good... but not really.”

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 As ‘In Stablecoins We Patch,’ the tokenized IOUs disguised as digital convenience are quietly patching the lower demand for US debt while paving the road to financial censorship. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/in-stablecoins-we-patch

In the theatre of recurring cycles, while the foot soldiers of Keynesian delusion and the loyal rank of state-sponsored propaganda cling to their false idols—propped up by the plutocracy that installed them—those who understand the cadence of history won’t be surprised. The Self Appointed ‘Peace Maker in Chief’, formerly dubbed the ‘Bully in Chief’, has now completed his transformation into the ‘Warmonger in Chief’. Right on cue, August 1st, 2025, was chosen as the launch date for escalating tensions to nuclear brinkmanship with the ever-reliable Russian bogeyman. This wasn’t diplomacy—it was a declaration.

The Manipulator-in-Chief, blinded by imperial arrogance, continues to wield the U.S. dollar like a blunt weapon, failing to grasp that his economic terrorism fuels the rise of BRICS and the de-dollarization of the Global South. In true ‘Trumperialist’ fashion, he threatens 100% tariffs on nations purchasing Russian oil—an empty gesture of economic warfare targeting China, India, and Türkiye. These nations, driven by energy security and sovereign interest, will keep ignoring his ultimatums, as Moscow’s exports remain resilient. Despite sanctions, Russia has rerouted fossil fuel flows toward loyal partners: China, India, and Türkiye. Meanwhile, the fragmented Western bloc—rattled by inflation and energy shortages of its own making—continues to import Russian energy through loopholes and hypocrisy. Senator Graham’s crude threat—"We’re going to crush your economy"—only echoes the desperation of a fading empire. Stalin would have called it what it is: bluff without backbone.

As a matter of fact, the 'Regime Changer In Chief' s crude threat—"We’re going to crush your economy"—only echoes the desperation of a fading empire. Stalin would have called it what it is: bluff without backbone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSzOQ9g2fhM

Anyone with battle scars from investing in so-called “Emerging Markets” knows the drill: puffed-up strongmen running the show, convinced they’re economic visionaries while barely grasping Econ 101—or history beyond last week’s speech. Ironically, as the U.S. slides from a crumbling plutocracy into a fully ripened banana republic, it seems determined to outshine its emerging cousins. The man in the Oval Office, true to form, now claims omniscience and declares any inconvenient data as fake news—because, naturally, reality must align with the sacred scrolls of his economic gospel.