The Macro Butler
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The Macro Butler aims to deliver concise yet comprehensive macroeconomic insights that impact global and regional markets. We analyze key indicators, trends to provide actionable & timely investment recommendations to all kind of investors.
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Having generously obliterated Iran for four weeks on ‘Satanyahu's tab’, the Warmonger-in-Chief has now presented his Gulf puppet monarchies with the most audacious protection racket in diplomatic history: $5 trillion to keep the war going, or a bargain $2.5 trillion to make it stop — call it the "Epstein Fury" loyalty surcharge. The same Gulf states whose oil nobody will insure, sold in the currency of the empire that started the war they never asked for, must now pay for the privilege of either continuing or ending it. Meanwhile, America hasn't lost soldiers or territory — merely something more expensive and harder to rebuild: the last remnants of Middle Eastern credibility.

‘Satanyahu’, naturally, wants to escalate further, gambling that a president haemorrhaging domestic support will double down rather than fold.

History suggests the Hill is already counting midterm seats.

https://mmnews.tv/2-5-trillion-to-stop-or-5-trillion-to-continue-trump-reportedly-demands-war-ransom-from-arabs/
In a remarkable feat for a country that has allegedly been obliterated fresh every morning for four consecutive weeks, Iran has somehow found the energy — between annihilations — to hit Diego Garcia and now Dimona, Israel's crown jewel of nuclear ambiguity. Apparently, being bombed into oblivion is no obstacle to precision targeting when you're running on pure spite. The "Epic F..k Up" operation's propaganda department is presumably working overtime to explain how a fully obliterated nation keeps returning fire with such inconvenient accuracy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/21/iran-hits-israeli-town-housing-nuclear-facility-in-retaliation-for-natanz-strike
The Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center — Israel's worst-kept nuclear secret — is a heavily fortified facility in the Negev Desert, officially designated for "research" in the same way Al Capone was in "hospitality." Built in 1958 with French assistance, its heavy-water reactor produces roughly 9 kilograms of plutonium annually, with stockpiles reportedly sufficient for up to 200 warheads. Recent satellite imagery confirms ongoing expansion, suggesting Israel is either researching very ambitiously or preparing for contingencies it would rather not discuss.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/explainer-dimona-what-to-know-about-israel-s-nuclear-site/3852733
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https://themacrobutler.com/financial-academy/
The Macro Butler pinned «The world isn’t built on ideas — it’s built on rocks. Everything starts with mining. Yet most investors have no clue how a discovery becomes cash flow — or why most companies fail along the way. In our latest Macro Butler Financial Academy lesson, you’ll…»
The Macro Butler
Week four of Operation Epstein Fury, and the Warmonger-in-Chief — having apparently obliterated Iran fresh every morning like a geopolitical Groundhog Day — now threatens an even newer, more obliterating stage of bombing unless Iran kindly reopens the strait…
Hell, it turns out, is perfectly symmetrical — within hours, the other side dutifully answered the Warmonger-in-Chief with equal theological fury, confirming what the Devil himself has always known: when two Malthusian death cults square off in the name of their respective deities, the only true believers are the weapons manufacturers. Both altars demand the same sacrifice; only the prayers differ.
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After a steady drumbeat of redemptions, valuation concerns, and public criticism from credit heavyweights and even Epic Fury spread its toxic effect on financial market, Blackstone has gently acknowledged that its flagship private credit fund, BCRED, may not have been priced with absolute precision. The $83 billion vehicle posted its first monthly loss in over three years, a modest reminder that even “stable” $1.8 trillion markets occasionally rediscover volatility.

https://www.bcred.com/performance/
Naturally, the firm reassured investors that everything remains under control—highlighting relative outperformance, solid long-term returns, and the timeless argument that even in a worst-case scenario, losses would be… manageable.

https://x.com/blackstone/status/2035088934753935648
In private credit, it seems, marks are flexible, redemptions are negotiable, and reality is always just a few basis points away from reassurance.
The Macro Butler
Hell, it turns out, is perfectly symmetrical — within hours, the other side dutifully answered the Warmonger-in-Chief with equal theological fury, confirming what the Devil himself has always known: when two Malthusian death cults square off in the name of…
Barely 36 hours after unveiling an “end-of-the-world, take-it-or-leave-it” ultimatum—clearly crafted to impress the most apocalyptic voices in the room—the self-declared commander pivoted on cue, generously extending the deadline by five days. Apparently, Armageddon now comes with a flexible schedule and optional reminders.
The problem is that in a “holy war,” where both sides appear willing to pursue economic self-damage in service of ideological objectives, diplomacy rarely survives beyond the press release. No sooner are negotiations mentioned than they are dismissed, reflecting deeper, unresolved divisions that make durable resolution unlikely. In this environment, it is not if but when the next social media escalation will be carrying increasingly destabilizing implications.
After Blue Owl Capital perched uneasily and Blackstone hit its first speed bump, it was Apollo Global Management’s turn to introduce investors to the fine print—gating. Following years of “stable” levered growth and an enthusiastic expansion from institutions to HNW and retail capital, the private credit boom has encountered a rather inconvenient reality check. Amid rising redemptions—fuelled in part by a SaaS-driven reassessment of credit risk—major players including BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Monroe Capital have collectively decided that liquidity is, in fact, optional, honouring only a portion of withdrawal requests. It turns out that in private credit, returns may be marketed as smooth—but exits, less so.
As redemptions and gating accelerate across the private credit space, firms such as Apollo Global Management, Ares Management, Blue Owl Capital, Oaktree Capital Management, and Goldman Sachs are increasingly managing liquidity rather than returns. Apollo’s $25 billion retail-focused vehicle, Apollo Debt Solutions (APODS), capped withdrawals at 5% after receiving redemption requests of 11.2%, effectively gating more than half of investor exits. While the firm reassured investors that “uncertainty creates opportunity,” it simultaneously expanded liquidity buffers, increasing credit lines to manage outflows. Notably, Apollo has already signalled it will maintain similar redemption limits next quarter, pre-emptively managing liquidity expectations. With investors receiving roughly 45% of requested capital—broadly in line with peers —the episode underscores a broader shift: in private credit, liquidity is conditional, and access to capital is increasingly subject to timing rather than entitlement.
Meanwhile, in a rare “nothing to see here” moment for the $1.8 trillion private credit universe, a fund managed by KKR and FS Investments officially crossed the line from investment-grade respectability into junk status. Moody’s Ratings downgraded FS KKR Capital Corp. to Ba1, citing deteriorating asset quality, rising non-accruals (now a stylish 5.5%), and a growing reliance on payment-in-kind income—because nothing says “healthy cash flow” like getting paid in more debt. Naturally, the fund reassured everyone that liquidity remains “strong” and the structure “well-positioned,” which is comforting, given that the rating now politely disagrees. In private credit, it seems, fundamentals are always solid—right up until they’re officially junk.
The Macro Butler
Having generously obliterated Iran for four weeks on ‘Satanyahu's tab’, the Warmonger-in-Chief has now presented his Gulf puppet monarchies with the most audacious protection racket in diplomatic history: $5 trillion to keep the war going, or a bargain $2.5…
The "blockaded" Strait of Hormuz is rapidly revealing itself as history's most profitable toll road, with Chinese, Indian, Japanese, Iraqi, and UAE vessels transiting peacefully — transponders conveniently switched off to spare everyone the awkwardness — while the Epic Fury coalition watches from the sidelines it created. The IEA calls it the biggest supply disruption in oil market history; Iran calls it an additional revenue stream. As the Warmonger-in-Chief attempts to ransom his Gulf puppets for $2.5-5 trillion to fund the war that was supposed to close the strait, Tehran is busy collecting passage fees and personally escorting LPG tankers through — running the most lucrative chokepoint in maritime history exclusively at the expense of the allies who started the war to shut it down.

https://x.com/LloydsList/status/2036105743573610701
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While celebrating yet another 5-day truce — the geopolitical equivalent of hitting snooze before the next Armageddon — the Warmonger-in-Chief and his partner in war ‘Satanyahu’ are apparently still dreaming of replacing Iran as Hormuz toll collectors, blissfully unaware that the strait is already cheerfully open for business to every mercantilist nation that declined their invitation to the Epic Fury coalition. As Washington polishes its landing craft for the inevitable Friday-after-market-close ground operation — because nothing says strategic surprise like a predictable weekend news dump — the multipolar world has quietly concluded that trade beats war, and is transiting accordingly.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/eExy-DOczo0
In a shocking surprise to absolutely nobody, the US economy is now delivering a textbook stagflation appetizer — growth slowing to a near one-year low, input prices surging to multi-year highs, headcounts shrinking, and selling prices jumping at the steepest pace in three and a half years — all generously gift-wrapped by the Epic Fury coalition's holy war. The Fed, that other temple of Keynesian impotence, must now somehow raise rates to fight inflation without strangling a weakening economy — a task roughly equivalent to performing surgery on a patient you are actively shooting.
This helpfully confirmed the obvious: it's stagflation. The Warmonger-in-Chief's greatest domestic achievement, delivered right on schedule.
While the Empire's finest boots were busy lacing up for the next glorious stage of Epic F..ck Up, Wall Street quietly noticed that nobody is particularly enthusiastic about lending Washington money anymore — the $69 billion 2-year auction pricing at 3.936%, the highest since May 2025, with a jaw-dropping 1.8 basis point tail, the worst since March 2023. Apparently, global investors watching the Warmonger-in-Chief simultaneously bomb Iran, ransom Gulf monarchies, and sleepwalk into stagflation have concluded that US Treasuries deserve a higher risk premium. Who could possibly have seen that coming.