The Macro Butler
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The Macro Butler aims to deliver concise yet comprehensive macroeconomic insights that impact global and regional markets. We analyze key indicators, trends to provide actionable & timely investment recommendations to all kind of investors.
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As the master might say: "He who controls the chokepoint controls the price; he who bombs the chokepoint starves his own people."
In a heartwarming display of commitment to free speech and democratic values, America's favourite Gulf Arab allies—those sterling defenders of liberty—are arresting roughly 20 people, including a British tourist, for the heinous crime of filming Iranian missile attacks on Dubai. The 60-year-old faces up to two years in prison under UAE cybercrime laws that prohibit "endangering public security," a delightfully vague charge that apparently covers everything from posting original videos to merely resharing content already circulating online. After the US-Israeli war with Iran kicked off February 28th, videos of counterattacks flooded social media—until the freedom-loving petro-monarchies started their crackdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/12/british-tourist-among-20-charged-in-dubai-over-videos-of-iranian-missile-strikes
Bahrain, where a Sunni monarch rules a Shia majority, began arresting citizens for "misusing" social media and pursuing anyone who dared appear celebratory. Israel, naturally, has imposed equally tight information controls, because transparency is overrated when you're bombing things.

Remember: you're free to speak—just not about anything happening in reality.
‘In times of conflict, truth becomes like precious jade—so valuable that those who possess it feel compelled to bury it beneath layers of deception for safekeeping.’ The master understood that when nations draw swords, honesty becomes the first casualty, carefully hidden behind bodyguards of convenient falsehoods. The ruler who speaks plainly in war is rare; the ruler who survives while doing so, rarer still. Thus, the wise student watches not what is proclaimed from the palace, but what is forbidden to be filmed in the streets.
The Macro Butler
In what is supposed to be a measured escalation of the Epic Fury peace initiative, the Warmonger-in-Chief announced Friday evening—thoughtfully timed aftermarket hours to preserve stability—that US Central Command had delivered Freedom to Kharg Island, which…
‘While the loud general brags of obliterating the enemy's front door, the wise neighbour quietly builds a back exit. ’The Warmonger-in-Chief celebrates the ‘total obliteration’ of Kharg Island as yet another glorious victory in the Forever Winning Epic Fury campaign, apparently unaware that Iran—with China's patient assistance—has been developing the Jask Oil Terminal on the Gulf of Oman for precisely this contingency. The facility, designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely, now allows Iranian oil to flow through routes immune to American bombing theatrics.

https://thearabweekly.com/iran-works-reroute-oil-exports-away-strait-hormuz
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For years, Iran's been building a rather impressive back entrance: the Jask Oil Terminal features 20 massive storage tanks (10 million barrels, expandable to 30+ million—because go big or go home), three loading systems for supertaskers, and a 1,100 km pipeline stretching from Goureh that can theoretically handle 1 million barrels per day. After sitting mostly dormant since its 2021 ribbon-cutting—presumably waiting for exactly this moment—the terminal roared back to life in October 2024 when a VLCC loaded 2 million barrels. These storage tanks have been filling like a strategic middle finger to the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. Turns out Iran wasn't putting all its eggs in one easily bombable basket after all.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-To-Bypass-Key-Oil-Chokepoint-By-Exporting-From-Jask-Terminal.html
The student of geopolitics learns: ‘He who prepares in silence defeats he who celebrates prematurely.’ One side bombs what it can see; the other builds what cannot be reached. The student of strategy notes which approach survives longer.
The Warmonger-in-Chief, fresh off obliterating another Middle Eastern facility alongside his allies in what's been tastefully rebranded as Operation "Epstein Fury," has taken to his favorite medium—schizophrenic tweet storms—to inform the world that he's actually been delivering "Harmony & Everlasting Peace" this whole time. Because nothing says "harmony" quite like bombing campaigns, and "everlasting peace" is apparently what you call it when the debris is still settling. It's a bold messaging strategy: conduct the war, declare victory, and avoid answering questions about a Mossad agent turned convicted sex trafficker and finally announce you've solved global conflict—all before lunch. Orwell would be taking notes. The Ministry of Peace approves this message.
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While bombs have become Donald Copperfield's preferred diplomatic instrument since he cannot use tariffs anymore—he's struck enough countries in his second term to fill a World Cup bracket—it's worth noting that monopolization, financialization, globalization, and America's hollowed-out industrial capacity are somewhat undermining this strategy. The same forces that destroyed domestic self-sufficiency have created charming dependencies on foreign nations, meaning any genuine national security threat will reveal the US outsourced its ability to respond to it. This wasn't an accident—it was a deliberate choice by our lords of capital, who found offshoring production more profitable than maintaining tedious things like "strategic independence."


https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/countries-trump-bombed-second-term-sa-030426
Reversing this would require dislodging the plutocrats profiting from the arrangement, so the Empire will probably just keep bombing with increasingly expensive munitions it can barely manufacture while wondering why it feels so exhausting.
While Donald Copperfield is busy blaming the Chinese mandarins—and roughly the rest of the planet—for the turbulence he created in the Strait of Hormuz, China quietly opened the year with stronger-than-expected economic data. Industrial production rose 6.3% year-on-year in January–February, retail sales accelerated to 2.8%, and fixed-asset investment unexpectedly grew 1.8%, suggesting the world’s second-largest economy entered 2026 with more momentum than feared. Unfortunately for global forecasters, those numbers were compiled before the latest geopolitical fireworks involving Iran rearranged the outlook for global growth, trade, and energy markets—meaning the data is already about as current as last week’s weather forecast. The real risk for China is not inflation but the possibility that a prolonged conflict could weaken global demand for its exports, turning a promising start to the year into yet another lesson in geopolitical timing.
In a nutshell, China quietly posted stronger-than-expected economic data—numbers that looked reassuring until the war in the Middle East reminded markets how quickly geopolitics can rewrite the growth outlook.
The Strategic Planners of Operation Epic ‘F..k up’ demonstrated Exceptional Foresight, correctly predicting Iran would deploy traditional mine-laying operations—our forces pre-emptively destroyed several mine-laying vessels in a Decisive Action. The current Temporary Navigation Challenges stem from Iran's Unlawful Deviation from expected doctrine: employing threats instead of honourably using mines as anticipated. This Asymmetric strategy has created Selective Passage Conditions—ships bound for China and regional partners proceed freely while others experience Voluntary Delays. The Coalition exercises Strategic Restraint, wisely avoiding actions that might (1) complicate relations with the US Valued Trading Supplier of Rare Earth, alias China, or (2) create Further Energy Price Stability Challenges. Iran has achieved effective closure without deploying a single naval asset—a fact that proves the Epic Strategic Success.

https://x.com/MarineTraffic/status/2033490585298915497?t=m4dydoKEehdYb2Gxffl-zQ&s=35
Donald Copperfield and 'Sata-nyahu' have brilliantly declined to specify what this war is actually for—regime change? End nuclear weapons? Degrade military capabilities? —which conveniently allows them to declare victory and exit whenever poll numbers require it. The Ayatollah assassination suggested regime change, Iran claims its uranium is now rubble (nuclear threat: solved!), but either objective would require boots on the ground, which enjoys roughly zero American support. No matter—the perception remains that this is Israel's war and America just helped decapitate Iran's leadership as a favour. Meanwhile, apocalypse beliefs have gone mainstream across North America, fuelled by climate chaos, geopolitical instability, and AI panic. What was once fringe doomsday talk is now dinner table conversation, with many Americans convinced the Middle East war is the opening act of Armageddon or is it only ‘Jeffrey’s War’…🍿Another inspiring episode of geopolitics where other people fight, taxpayers pay...

https://t.me/TheMacroButlerSubstack/1713
As Confucius observed: "He who closes the door and then asks his rival to help open it reveals more about himself than the door."

The Warmonger-in-Chief, having effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz through his own bombing campaign, now implores China to help him establish "American Rule of Law" over the very chokepoint he blockaded. Meanwhile, Iran's foreign minister has openly declared what was once discreet: Russia and China are providing military cooperation—intelligence sharing, battlefield data, logistical support, and diplomatic cover. Chinese naval assets have conveniently appeared near the Strait while both powers protect energy flows to their own markets, because why let American bombs interrupt profitable commerce?

https://united24media.com/latest-news/iran-officially-confirms-military-support-from-russia-and-china-in-war-against-the-us-16882
The Macro Butler
The Strategic Planners of Operation Epic ‘F..k up’ demonstrated Exceptional Foresight, correctly predicting Iran would deploy traditional mine-laying operations—our forces pre-emptively destroyed several mine-laying vessels in a Decisive Action. The current…
Because maps tell more truth than property developers turned Warmonger-in-Chief, Iran is now graciously informing ships they won't be attacked if they use Iranian waterways—a delightful development showing how Operation 'Epstein Fury' has completely neutralized Tehran's regional influence in the mind of the Washington theocrats. The sponsors of this brilliant campaign have inadvertently created the perfect conditions for Iran to exploit control over the world's most critical oil chokepoint and dictate terms on global energy transit. Mission accomplished!

https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/2033555429406458120
Yet if you listen to official White House statements, Iran has been utterly defeated with no meaningful presence or capability remaining in the region. Just ignore the part where they're now acting as traffic controllers for the global oil supply. Meanwhile, astute observers are asking whether the Gulf Arab countries were the actual targets all along—because nothing says "protecting our allies" quite like stalling the economies of the GCC and crippling the entire Arab world in the process.
Who could have predicted that destroying infrastructure and destabilizing the region would somehow increase Tehran's leverage? Certainly not the geniuses running this operation while tweeting about "total obliteration" and "everlasting peace."
As a Confucian and Buddhist perspective might suggest, when commerce flows freely, societies flourish; when it is disrupted by war, both victor and vanquished suffer.

The Global South, unattached to the imperial ambitions consuming the West, simply asks: "Why bomb when we can barter? Why destroy when we can exchange?"

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/3218603/thailand-offers-iran-food-for-plastic-pellets-fertiliser
The Washington swamp pursues depopulation through weapons; the wise from the Global South pursue prosperity through partnership. As the sutras remind us: attachment to dominance brings suffering, while the path of mutual benefit brings peace.

The student of both traditions sees clearly—he who trades in fertilizer feeds the world; he who trades in bombs merely fertilizes graveyards.
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