It took precisely one day for BlackRock to follow Blue Owl's lead and join the private credit gating parade, announcing that its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund — one of the largest non-traded BDCs in existence — would cap redemptions at 5% after investors requested 9.3% of their shares back. In other words, clients asked for $1.2 billion and will receive approximately $620 million, with the remainder politely retained in the name of "foundational liquidity management" — which is what sophisticated asset managers call a gate when they would prefer not to use the word gate. BlackRock helpfully explained that without this feature, there would be a "structural mismatch between investor capital and the expected duration of private credit loans" — a structural mismatch that was, one assumes, fully disclosed in the marketing materials that attracted $26 billion in the first place.

As the private credit cockroaches continue to emerge one quarterly filing at a time, the $1.8 trillion industry's foundational promise — that illiquid assets packaged in semi-liquid vehicles are perfectly fine during times of stress — is being tested with the thoroughness that only a redemption wave can provide.

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 When holy wars lead empires to the economic altar, prosperity favours the calm mind over the loud narrative. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/when-holy-wars-lead-empires-to-the

In a diplomatic masterstroke worthy of the Ministry of Peace's finest traditions, the Chairman of the Board of Peace — that tireless champion of bombing for democracy — has followed the well-worn imperial playbook to its logical conclusion, demanding total surrender from Iran. The timing is, as always, impeccable: delivered precisely as reports emerge that the Empire and its ally are burning through ammunition at a pace that suggests Operation Epic Fury was planned with the same logistical foresight as the six-week Iraq campaign of 2003. Demanding unconditional surrender from a mountain fortress of 90 million people, whose security forces remain intact, whose IRGC controls the hard power, and whose geography has repelled every empire that has attempted the same manoeuvre for the past two millennia, is not a negotiating position — it is a presidential tweet.

As Confucius might observe: "The empire that demands unconditional surrender has studied history long enough to repeat it." Roosevelt demanded Germany's unconditional surrender on January 24, 1943 — and the actual surrender came on May 8, 1945, two years and more than two million soldiers later. The script, it appears, has not been updated in eighty years: demand total capitulation, underestimate the resolve of the adversary, absorb the casualties, and eventually arrive at the outcome that a negotiated settlement might have delivered at a fraction of the cost in blood and treasure. It never fails — Democrat or Republican in the Situation Room of the White House — when faced with a determined adversary, the American imperial reflex defaults to the same playbook, the same rhetoric, and ultimately the same arithmetic. The only variable that changes is the body count.

https://fdr.blogs.archives.gov/2017/01/10/the-casablanca-conference-unconditional-surrender/

As the Ministry of Democratic Liberation would remind us: this is not an ultimatum issued from a position of diminishing ammunition — it is simply the natural conclusion of a peace process conducted entirely through airstrikes.

Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/when-holy-wars-lead-empires-to-the-f7e

In a historic gathering at Trump National Doral Club — because nothing says multilateral diplomacy quite like hosting a military coalition announcement at your own golf resort — the Chairman of the Board of Peace welcomed his carefully curated collection of right-wing Latin American allies to launch the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition, a brand new military partnership that will leverage missiles against drug cartels in the Western Hemisphere. The summit, grandly titled the Shield of the Americas, notably excluded Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico — the three largest Latin American economies and, coincidentally, the three most relevant to any serious counter-narcotics effort — because "like-minded allies" is diplomatic language for "governments that agree with us."

https://x.com/POTUS/status/2030308939707883682

The Warmonger in Chief, reflecting on previous administrations' foreign policy failures, observed that "they went to these faraway places where they weren't even wanted" — a comment delivered with magnificent self-awareness by a man currently bombing Iran while hosting a cartel summit at his Miami golf club.

Wonder woman Kristi, freshly fired from the Department of Homeland Security where she discovered secret spy rooms and financed a ‘Cowgirl Hollywood campaign to Make Homeland Sexy Again’ , has been appointed Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas — because if anyone understands hidden threats operating beneath the surface of official institutions, it is her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEA3sk2HXnM

As the Ministry of Hemispheric Peace would remind us: this is not the militarisation of Latin America — it is simply incredible things being done together

As Warmonger Cheeney once promised Iraq would be over in weeks, today The Warmonger In Chief deploys identical confidence about Operation Epic Fury in Persia as ‘a minor excursion’— apparently unaware that the imperial playbook's most reliable chapter is the one where every such assurance ages catastrophically. For the record ‘Warmonger Bush’ stood beneath his "Mission Accomplished" banner on May 1, 2003, declared major combat operations over, and American soldiers were still dying eight years later in service of the plutocrats who ordered the invasion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVxqUe9SEgw

In a display of presidential empathy that will surely resonate with every American filling their tank at $3.5 a gallon, Donald Copperfield — fresh from describing the bombing of a nation of 90 million people as a "minor excursion" — has now reassured the public that surging oil prices are merely "a very small price to pay." A very small price, naturally, paid exclusively by the American consumer, the trucking industry, the airline sector, and anyone who heats their home with oil, while the architects of Operation Epic Fury pay nothing whatsoever. The magic trick, executed with characteristic “The Manipulator In Chief’ flair, involves making the distinction between who orders the excursion and who pays for it disappear entirely from public consciousness.

MIGA — Make Israel Great Always — marches forward, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, gasoline prices climb toward levels last seen during peak pandemic chaos, and the American public is invited to consider this a patriotic contribution rather than an involuntary tax.

As Confucius might observe: "The leader who calls someone else's sacrifice a very small price has never paid it himself."

Even before the price of energy stirs, even the Middle Kingdom feels the ripple. In China, consumer inflation quietly accelerated to 1.3% in February, the fastest pace in more than three years, helped by a lively Lunar New Year spending spree. Factory deflation also softened, with producer prices falling less sharply, while core inflation rose to 1.8%, the highest since 2019. The lesson is simple: when households celebrate, prices tend to follow. Yet the People’s Bank of China remains cautious, aware that rising oil prices may bring further inflation while external turbulence threatens to spill into domestic markets. Still, after several years of stubborn deflation, one month of festive spending does not change the deeper story—much like a grand banquet during the New Year does not mean the granaries are suddenly overflowing.

As Master Kong might gently remind the impatient merchant: profits grow not merely from rising costs, but from the noble art of persuading customers to pay them. In China, despite fierce competition and lingering deflation, companies seem to practice this art rather well. The spread between Core CPI and Core PPI has remained positive since August 2022, and in February it reached its widest level since January of the last Jubilee year. In plain terms, consumer prices are proving more resilient than producers’ costs—an encouraging omen for corporate margins. Thus, the wise investor, sipping tea and observing calmly, may conclude that valuations in the Middle Kingdom still have room to stretch their legs.

In a nutshell, in China, a festive Lunar New Year lifted inflation and softened factory deflation, while the widening gap between Core CPI and Core PPI suggests companies are still passing costs to consumers—an encouraging sign that corporate margins, and perhaps valuations, still have room to rise.

In a development that suggests even the architects of Operation Epic Fury are beginning to question the optics of victory laps, the founders of the Board of Peace — those tireless champions of bombing for democracy who assured the world that higher oil prices are a very small price to pay for a minor excursion into Persia — are reportedly skipping a visit to their most cherished ally in the Middle East.

https://t.me/rtnews/139294

Having spent the better part of the past week declaring Epic Fury an unqualified triumph while ammunition stocks quietly depleted, tanker traffic through Hormuz collapsed 90%, gasoline prices climbed toward levels last seen during peak chaos, the Board of Peace has apparently concluded that a victory tour of the region might raise questions they are not yet prepared to answer. As the Ministry of Winning would remind us: this is not an absence of confidence — it is simply strategic scheduling.