Like everything in life, U.S. bankruptcy filings follow a cycle—and Q1 is typically peak season. That’s when companies open their year-end books, see the grim reality, and head straight for Chapter 11. While a quieter second half might be expected, the Jubilee year is shaping up to break 2024’s record and may even go toe-to-toe with the post-crisis high watermark of 2010.

Turns out accounting statements can be deadlier than interest rates.

The “Anti-Vax in Chief,” waving the MAHA flag and preaching health and freedom, just unveiled a wellness plan straight out of Orwell’s playbook: mandatory wearables. Under the noble guise of empowerment, it’s really just 24/7 surveillance—because nothing says liberty like the government tracking your heartbeat.

In today’s surveillance-industrial complex, your heartbeat is just another data point on someone else’s balance sheet. Tech giants rake in profits from gadgets and app subscriptions, insurers get to refine their risk models, and bureaucrats enjoy a treasure trove of behavioral intel—all under the comforting banner of “wellness.”

But this isn’t innovation—it’s just the latest chapter in the old book of control. Every so-called breakthrough, from GPS to smart speakers, has arrived gift-wrapped as progress, only to quietly tighten the screws of surveillance. What starts as voluntary soon becomes unavoidable—until you’re no longer wearing a device, the device is wearing you.

And with the system now able to flag “mental health risks” from your stress levels or sleep patterns, we’re one firmware update away from your smartwatch becoming your probation officer. Welcome to the future: optimized, monetized, and sanitized for state approval.

Today, surveillance doesn’t come with sirens—it comes with step counters and heart rate monitors. Don’t worry, it’s “for your health.” Your body is now your ID, your credit score, your job application. Decline to share? You must be a threat.

But hey, who needs autonomy when you’ve got convenience? Just remember: the wellness tracker you bought to optimize your life may soon be used to optimize your compliance.

As anyone with a shred of critical thinking can see, the so-called green energy revolution may well be one of the greatest Ponzi schemes ever unleashed upon humanity.

Far from delivering prosperity, the rise in renewable energy correlates ominously with economic stagnation. The evidence is damning: the higher the share of renewables in electricity production, the more energy consumption growth grinds to a halt—crippled by soaring costs and economic inefficiencies.

Once the renewable share crosses the critical 30% threshold—where it can no longer be masked by idle backup capacity—energy consumption doesn’t just slow. It collapses. This isn’t transition. It’s regression masquerading as progress.

In a move that surprises no one paying attention, the world’s most aggressively greenwashed government—the Dutch—has quietly admitted defeat. Citing spiraling costs and waning industry appetite, they’re scaling back their once-trumpeted offshore wind ambitions. The original 50GW target by 2040? Now deemed “unrealistic.” The new plan: a humbler 30 to 40GW.

Even the climate minister conceded the obvious: “Costs have risen, while industrial electrification lags,” leaving demand for “sustainable” electricity in doubt. Translation? The fantasy has hit a wall of economic reality.

https://www.bairdmaritime.com/offshore/renewables/offshore-wind/rising-costs-lower-demand-prompt-netherlands-to-scale-back-2040-offshore-wind-goals

Prosperity comes from giving people access to abundant, affordable energy—so they can produce, innovate, and raise living standards. Forcing costly, inefficient, and misleadingly labeled "green energy" does the opposite: it spreads poverty and empowers bloated bureaucracies, not people.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/abundant-and-cheap-energy-time-to

US Retail sales bounced back in June with a 0.6% gain (after May’s sorry -0.9% faceplant), thanks mostly to autos getting back in gear.

Strip out cars and gas, and sales still crept up 0.6%, while the control group (fancy speak for “everything else”) nudged up 0.5%, beating their usual snoozy pace. Even food and drink spots perked up, though they’re still not quite living the high life. Overall, June’s spending looks like a modest 0.4% rise—better than May’s dip, but don’t pop the champagne yet; second-quarter growth might still underperform expectations.

Retail sales may look strong on the surface, but that’s just nominal growth ignoring inflation. Adjusted for prices, June barely nudged above last February and still lags behind the April 2022 peak. Historically, real retail sales peaks often align with S&P 500-to-Oil ratio highs, which then fall below their 7-year average—signaling rising recession risks. In other words, trouble’s brewing, even if Wall Street is still in denial.

In a nutshell, US retail sales bounced back in June, but beneath the nominal gains lurks inflation-adjusted weakness signaling rising recession risks—even if Wall Street isn’t ready to admit it.

The University of Michigan’s early-July survey showed a slight uptick in consumer sentiment, largely thanks to a buoyant stock market—not rising wages. But the usual partisan split deepened: Republicans are riding high, while Democrats saw their optimism fade after Trump’s tariffs and his flashy One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Inflation expectations dipped, but the Fed is more interested in Wall Street's calmer signals than what average consumers think. Buying conditions held steady, housing sentiment remains split between hopeful buyers and grumpy sellers.

In a nutshell, consumer sentiment rose on Wall Street gains, but Trump’s tariffs, partisan whiplash, and sticky #inflation fears kept the optimism in check.

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 Tariffs, Sanctions, & Green Myths have turned Germany’s economic miracle into a slow-motion crash, and with debt piling up like red tape files, the sovereign crisis is just waiting for its cue. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/deutschland-unter-allen

You can now also listen to a summary of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/deutschland-unter-allen-podcast

Former BlackRock banker turned German Chancellor Friedrich Merz just handed Russia yet another reason to drag out the war. With a straight face, he blamed Russia for Europe’s energy mess, economic slump, and overloaded welfare systems—because apparently, none of that existed before the war. And in a heroic display of tone-deaf optimism, he insisted that Ukraine’s daily survival is thanks to Europe’s endless aid. Oh, and Russia should cough up €500 billion in reparations—declared at the same summit where von der Leyen proudly unveiled a fantasy €2 trillion fund for Ukraine’s “reconstruction.”

https://kyivindependent.com/russia-must-pay-ukraine-500-billion-euros-in-damages-germanys-merz-says-06-2025/

The G7 has already looted $300 billion in Russian assets, and now Merz, the BlackRock bishop of global finance, demands €500 billion more in blood money. As if Versailles never happened. Back then, they crushed Germany with shame, starvation, and debt so brutal it conjured a demon—Adolf Hitler. Now they’re casting the same curse on Russia, fueling the flames with every arrogant speech and “reconstruction” fund promise.

Putin, for all his faults, has reached for peace—but peace was never part of the plan. The Western priesthood of war wants chaos, not compromise. And behind Putin stand far darker forces, hardliners with no patience for diplomacy, only vengeance.

Keep pushing, and the West won’t just wake the bear—they’ll summon something far worse.

According to Eurostat’s ever-reliable Stalinist-style propaganda, Europe’s renewable electricity prices have now plummeted to just three times the cost of conventional power—what a bargain!

Of course, once you strip out carbon taxes on fossil fuels and factor in the generous subsidies (like the UK’s recent top-up), the true cost of renewables is probably still over five times higher. Meanwhile, the more renewables are added, the worse their capacity factor becomes—dropping 20% since 2015. Funny how that works. Once renewables exceed 16% of the mix, capacity starts falling off a cliff. And when output regularly exceeds demand, as it already does 10% of the time in Germany, each shiny new windmill just makes the whole system less efficient.

Result? Higher unit costs, shrinking energy use, and good old-fashioned deindustrialisation. All in the name of progress.