In what may be the first tangible evidence that "Make America Industrial Again" is more than a bumper sticker, US industrial production surged 0.7% in January — the biggest monthly gain in nearly a year. Manufacturing, which accounts for three-quarters of total industrial production, led the charge with a 0.6% advance, driven by broad-based gains in business equipment, consumer goods, computers, machinery, and motor vehicles. Even the durable goods order book joined the party, with December bookings surprising to the upside across communications equipment, metals, and electrical machinery. Factory employment rose in January for the first time since late 2024, ISM manufacturing hit its strongest reading since 2022, and capacity utilization climbed to 75.6% — the highest since September. Utilities added 2.1% courtesy of Arctic air masses that apparently forgot the Deep South was not prepared.

In a nutshell, America's factories are waking up — and for once, the data agrees with the slogan.

In the ancient ritual of reading the Federal Reserve's tea leaves, the January FOMC minutes revealed what the wise man already suspected: the committee is in no hurry to do anything. The decision to hold rates was nearly unanimous, with only Governors Miran and Waller — the committee's two impatient disciples — still clamouring for cuts. More striking was the revelation that "several" participants would have welcomed two-sided language, leaving open the possibility of rate hikes should inflation refuse to behave — a subtle reminder that the door to tightening has not been entirely forgotten. The inflation optimists pointed to productivity and deregulation as disinflationary forces, while the cautious majority warned that progress would be slow and uneven, and that tariffs may yet add to the price of things. As for the labour market, the "vast majority" declared it stable, though "most" still worried it could deteriorate — a distinction that would impress even Confucius in its carefully crafted ambiguity.

As the Master might observe: "The committee that speaks in 'several', 'most', and 'a few' has mastered the ancient art of saying everything while committing to nothing."

Having warmed the hearts of millions with their delightful Lunar New Year robot dance show — nothing says "family entertainment" quite like armed autonomous platforms — China's People's Liberation Army has wasted little time revealing what the real agenda was all along. The PLA has unveiled a motion-mimicking combat robot that replicates a soldier's every move in real time, powered by AI and a motion-sensing suit, in what military strategists are calling "intelligent warfare" and what everyone else is calling "a Terminator" The system — affectionately compared to the robots in Real Steel, because nothing reassures foreign dignitaries quite like a Hollywood blockbuster reference — was demonstrated, presumably to ensure that the message was received loud and clear in every time zone. China's "intelligent warfare" strategy is progressing smoothly: first, dazzle the public with dancing robots; then, show the generals the ones that don't dance.

And lest anyone mistake the Lunar New Year performance for mere showmanship, the reality on the ground is rather more sobering. China has already deployed humanoid robots — specifically the Walker S2 by UBTech Robotics — along its border with Vietnam, where they autonomously patrol, conduct surveillance, and helpfully guide travellers who presumably had no say in the matter. Capable of autonomous navigation and self-sufficient enough to replace their own batteries — because even robots cannot rely on human punctuality — these mechanical border guards are part of a 264-million-yuan ($37 million) contract for border monitoring. In other words, while the world was busy debating whether AI would take white-collar jobs, China quietly handed the graveyard shift at the border to a robot that never sleeps, never complains, and never applies for a pay rise.

https://www.eldiario24.com/en/china-deploys-advanced-border-robots/26270/

Based on a report from the Wall Street Journal — an outlet whose credibility varies depending on which administration is in power — Taiwan's $11.1 billion arms package, featuring Patriot missile interceptors and other assorted tools of self-defence, is currently gathering dust in Washington's in-tray. Apparently, Emperor Xi expressed his displeasure and someone in the Donald Copperfield’s administration quietly concluded that a presidential visit to Beijing was worth more than a formal security commitment to an inconvenient ally — and considerably less likely to ignite another banker-approved Forever War in the Pacific. The WSJ helpfully assures readers that ‘The Warmonger In Chief’ "wouldn't be pushed around by China," which is a remarkably creative way of describing an administration carefully timing an arms sale to avoid upsetting the very man it just promised not to upset.

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/u-s-arms-sale-to-taiwan-in-limbo-amid-pressure-campaign-from-china-d228f912?mod=hp_lead_pos2

In exchange for this geopolitical agility, China is generously considering purchasing an additional 8 million metric tons of soybeans — because nothing captures the grandeur of great power diplomacy quite like trading missile defence systems for agricultural commodities.

After a year of breathless tariff announcements, emergency declarations, and policy pivots, the US trade deficit for 2025 clocked in at a record $901.5 billion — virtually unchanged from before the entire circus began. December alone contributed a $70.3 billion shortfall, wider than almost every economist predicted, as imports rose and exports fell. In summary: maximum disruption, minimum results. The tariff strategy designed to resurrect American manufacturing has so far succeeded mainly in making trade data more volatile and economists more employed. The Supreme Court may yet rule on whether any of this was even legal — a detail the administration apparently considered optional.

In what can only be described as the world's most expensive game of trade Whac-A-Mole, the US deficit with China did indeed narrow to $202 billion — the smallest in over two decades — as tariffs successfully redirected Chinese exports through Mexico and Vietnam, where deficits promptly swelled to record highs. Taiwan, meanwhile, nearly doubled its surplus with the US to a record $146.8 billion, cheerfully exempt from tariffs while flooding America with the semiconductors needed to power the AI boom.

In a nutshell, America's tariff revolution delivered maximum chaos and minimum results — the overall deficit hit a record $901.5 billion while the China gap simply relocated to Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan.

As financial history books may one day record, Blue Owl Capital is auditioning for the role that New Century Financial played in the subprime debacle — the canary in the private credit coal mine. Having previously allowed a generous 17% quarterly redemption rate — itself a flashing warning sign — the private credit giant has now done what all gated funds eventually do when the cockroaches multiply: slammed the door entirely. Investors in OBDC II will no longer be able to redeem shares quarterly; instead, they will receive their money back through "periodic distributions" — which is financial industry speak for "whenever we manage to sell something."

https://www.reuters.com/business/blue-owl-sells-14-bln-debt-funds-pension-insurance-investors-2026-02-18/

To demonstrate its portfolio's magnificent quality, Blue Owl sold $1.4 billion in loans at 99.7 cents on the dollar — a transaction co-founder Craig Packer heroically described as "putting our money where our mouth is," apparently unaware that selling assets under duress at a haircut is traditionally not considered a flex. The buyers, reassuringly, included North American pension funds and insurance companies — meaning that retail investors fleeing a sinking ship have successfully passed the lifejacket to retirees. The canary, it appears, is not singing.

When the macro storm clouds gather, BFM 89.9 knows who to call.

Summoned for emergency interview duty, The Macro Butler went on air to deliver an inconvenient macro cocktail: higher oil prices and rising unemployment are quietly forming the tag team most likely to derail the Fed’s rate-cutting ambitions in 2026, reignite USD strength, and leave US retailers — caught between a consumer paying more and spending less — looking decidedly icy investments.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-bfm-899-malaysia-20022026

Fresh from his signing ceremony in Davos — where the world's most dedicated globalists gather annually to discuss the common people's problems from the comfort of a Swiss ski resort — ‘The Manipulator In Chief’ convened the Board of Peace for its first board meeting in Washington, an institution whose relationship with actual peace is best described as complicated. As in Munich, the agenda conspicuously avoided the word "peace" in any operational sense, focusing instead on the more pressing question of precisely how many days remain before the Middle East is once again democratized at gunpoint. The answer, delivered with the casual confidence of a man who has done this before: 10 to 15 days.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Cz6_aCaJDoM

Because nothing says "spreading democracy" quite like another carefully orchestrated regime change, brought to you by the same Washington establishment that has been spreading democracy across the Middle East for the past three decades only to promote the Zionist American Imperialistic agenda.

In the paradise islands of Hawaii — still smouldering from the deadliest American wildfire in a century — the Ministry of Emergency Preparedness has concluded that what residents truly need is not better disaster management, but a more efficient legal framework for quarantining them without consent and entering their homes without permission.

HB2236 and SB2151, advancing cheerfully through both chambers, would grant the governor sole authority to declare emergencies based on perceived threats, quarantine individuals merely "believed to have been exposed," enter private property without consent, suspend inconvenient laws beyond the emergency period, seize private infrastructure, and confiscate firearms — all justified, naturally, by another 'Plandemic'.



https://legiscan.com/HI/bill/HB2236/2026

The Senate version helpfully expands the definition of "disaster" to include disease outbreaks and bioterrorism — a timely addition given that Washington is simultaneously pumping $5.5 billion into pandemic preparedness while the FBI, CIA, and German intelligence have confirmed the last pandemic was likely laboratory-engineered. Lawmakers call this a "clarification" of emergency authority — which is precisely what a government pre-assembling a control apparatus would say.

https://legiscan.com/HI/bill/SB2151/2026

In summary: Hawaii is not improvising authoritarianism — it is legislating it in advance, with the careful foresight of a government that prefers its emergency powers pre-assembled and ready for immediate deployment. The bills would permanently codify the authority to quarantine residents on suspicion alone, confiscate firearms, suspend inconvenient laws, and seize private infrastructure — all activated at the sole discretion of a governor judging threats that need not yet exist.
This arrives, entirely coincidentally, as the federal government pumps billions into pandemic preparedness, conducts gain-of-function experiments on influenza viruses, and builds rapid vaccine deployment infrastructure — while Congress, the FBI, the CIA, and German intelligence have quietly confirmed that the last pandemic was likely engineered in a laboratory.
The overlap is, we are assured, merely administrative. The same institutional establishment that may have created the pathogen is now codifying the legal architecture to govern the population when the next one arrives.

https://jonfleetwood.substack.com/p/trump-finances-the-next-pandemic?utm_source=publication-search

Like a Swiss clock that has quietly lost its mind, the Fed's favourite inflation gauge refused to cooperate in December. Core PCE rose 0.4% MoM — hotter than the expected 0.3% — pushing the YoY reading to 3.0%, the highest since April 2025 and comfortably above the Fed's 2% target, which at this point is less a policy objective and more a fond memory. Headline PCE matched the heat at 0.4% MoM, lifting the annual reading to 2.9% — the highest since March 2024. SuperCore PCE, that most stubborn of inflation measures, printed +3.3% YoY, having barely moved in a year, suggesting that services inflation has no intention of going anywhere.