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In what may be Warren Buffett's final act as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, the Oracle of Omaha — or whichever wise sage now holds the stock-picking brush — continued trimming the garden with purpose. Amazon was cut by a striking 77%, reduced from 10 million shares to a modest 2.28 million, suggesting that six years of wisdom eventually replaced six years of enthusiasm. Apple and Bank of America, long cherished like family heirlooms, were also quietly reduced by 4.3% and 8.9% respectively, continuing a pruning exercise begun in 2024. In their place, modest additions to Chevron and Chubb, and a small, almost philosophical new position in the New York Times — as if to ensure Berkshire remains informed of its own obituaries.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000119312526054580/xslForm13F_X02/50240.xml

As Confucius never quite said but surely meant: 'The superior investor does not cling to yesterday's wisdom, for even the finest tree must shed its leaves to survive the winter'.

As the Middle East prepared its latest geopolitical thriller, the US Treasury quietly attempted to sell $16 billion in 20-year bonds — with results that can only be described as a polite disaster.

The auction cleared at a high yield of 4.664%, down from 4.846% in January and the lowest since October, which sounds encouraging until one notices that it tailed the When Issued by a whopping 2 basis points — the biggest tail since November 2024. In other words, the Treasury set the table, lit the candles, and investors still arrived late and ate less than expected.

The disappointment did not stop there. The Bid-to-Cover tumbled to 2.36 from a near-record 2.86 in January — the lowest since November 2024 — suggesting that the audience for US government paper is shrinking faster than the Treasury would like to admit. The internals were equally sobering: foreign buyers, those reliably polite guests at the US debt banquet, chose to stay home. Indirects took down a mere 55.167%, down sharply from 64.715% in January and the second lowest on record — only the dark days of February 2021 were worse.

Directs took down 27.2%, a modest step back from January's 29.1% but still above the recent average of 26.9% — a small consolation in an otherwise unglamorous affair. The real indignity, however, was reserved for the Dealers, who were left holding 17.6% of the auction — the highest since December 2024. In the world of bond auctions, Dealers are the guests who eat whatever is left on the table after everyone else has gone home.

In summary, this was an unambiguously ugly auction — and perhaps not entirely surprising. In a world of forever bankers’ wars, weaponized reserve currencies, and deficits that show no intention of behaving, an increasing number of investors are arriving at the same uncomfortable conclusion: the asset once marketed as risk-free has quietly become one of the riskiest things to own.

As Confucius might have said, had he managed a bond portfolio: "The man who lends to a government that prints, spends, and sanctions without remorse deserves whatever yield he gets."

In what may be the first tangible evidence that "Make America Industrial Again" is more than a bumper sticker, US industrial production surged 0.7% in January — the biggest monthly gain in nearly a year. Manufacturing, which accounts for three-quarters of total industrial production, led the charge with a 0.6% advance, driven by broad-based gains in business equipment, consumer goods, computers, machinery, and motor vehicles. Even the durable goods order book joined the party, with December bookings surprising to the upside across communications equipment, metals, and electrical machinery. Factory employment rose in January for the first time since late 2024, ISM manufacturing hit its strongest reading since 2022, and capacity utilization climbed to 75.6% — the highest since September. Utilities added 2.1% courtesy of Arctic air masses that apparently forgot the Deep South was not prepared.

In a nutshell, America's factories are waking up — and for once, the data agrees with the slogan.

In the ancient ritual of reading the Federal Reserve's tea leaves, the January FOMC minutes revealed what the wise man already suspected: the committee is in no hurry to do anything. The decision to hold rates was nearly unanimous, with only Governors Miran and Waller — the committee's two impatient disciples — still clamouring for cuts. More striking was the revelation that "several" participants would have welcomed two-sided language, leaving open the possibility of rate hikes should inflation refuse to behave — a subtle reminder that the door to tightening has not been entirely forgotten. The inflation optimists pointed to productivity and deregulation as disinflationary forces, while the cautious majority warned that progress would be slow and uneven, and that tariffs may yet add to the price of things. As for the labour market, the "vast majority" declared it stable, though "most" still worried it could deteriorate — a distinction that would impress even Confucius in its carefully crafted ambiguity.

As the Master might observe: "The committee that speaks in 'several', 'most', and 'a few' has mastered the ancient art of saying everything while committing to nothing."

Having warmed the hearts of millions with their delightful Lunar New Year robot dance show — nothing says "family entertainment" quite like armed autonomous platforms — China's People's Liberation Army has wasted little time revealing what the real agenda was all along. The PLA has unveiled a motion-mimicking combat robot that replicates a soldier's every move in real time, powered by AI and a motion-sensing suit, in what military strategists are calling "intelligent warfare" and what everyone else is calling "a Terminator" The system — affectionately compared to the robots in Real Steel, because nothing reassures foreign dignitaries quite like a Hollywood blockbuster reference — was demonstrated, presumably to ensure that the message was received loud and clear in every time zone. China's "intelligent warfare" strategy is progressing smoothly: first, dazzle the public with dancing robots; then, show the generals the ones that don't dance.

And lest anyone mistake the Lunar New Year performance for mere showmanship, the reality on the ground is rather more sobering. China has already deployed humanoid robots — specifically the Walker S2 by UBTech Robotics — along its border with Vietnam, where they autonomously patrol, conduct surveillance, and helpfully guide travellers who presumably had no say in the matter. Capable of autonomous navigation and self-sufficient enough to replace their own batteries — because even robots cannot rely on human punctuality — these mechanical border guards are part of a 264-million-yuan ($37 million) contract for border monitoring. In other words, while the world was busy debating whether AI would take white-collar jobs, China quietly handed the graveyard shift at the border to a robot that never sleeps, never complains, and never applies for a pay rise.

https://www.eldiario24.com/en/china-deploys-advanced-border-robots/26270/

Based on a report from the Wall Street Journal — an outlet whose credibility varies depending on which administration is in power — Taiwan's $11.1 billion arms package, featuring Patriot missile interceptors and other assorted tools of self-defence, is currently gathering dust in Washington's in-tray. Apparently, Emperor Xi expressed his displeasure and someone in the Donald Copperfield’s administration quietly concluded that a presidential visit to Beijing was worth more than a formal security commitment to an inconvenient ally — and considerably less likely to ignite another banker-approved Forever War in the Pacific. The WSJ helpfully assures readers that ‘The Warmonger In Chief’ "wouldn't be pushed around by China," which is a remarkably creative way of describing an administration carefully timing an arms sale to avoid upsetting the very man it just promised not to upset.

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/u-s-arms-sale-to-taiwan-in-limbo-amid-pressure-campaign-from-china-d228f912?mod=hp_lead_pos2

In exchange for this geopolitical agility, China is generously considering purchasing an additional 8 million metric tons of soybeans — because nothing captures the grandeur of great power diplomacy quite like trading missile defence systems for agricultural commodities.

After a year of breathless tariff announcements, emergency declarations, and policy pivots, the US trade deficit for 2025 clocked in at a record $901.5 billion — virtually unchanged from before the entire circus began. December alone contributed a $70.3 billion shortfall, wider than almost every economist predicted, as imports rose and exports fell. In summary: maximum disruption, minimum results. The tariff strategy designed to resurrect American manufacturing has so far succeeded mainly in making trade data more volatile and economists more employed. The Supreme Court may yet rule on whether any of this was even legal — a detail the administration apparently considered optional.

In what can only be described as the world's most expensive game of trade Whac-A-Mole, the US deficit with China did indeed narrow to $202 billion — the smallest in over two decades — as tariffs successfully redirected Chinese exports through Mexico and Vietnam, where deficits promptly swelled to record highs. Taiwan, meanwhile, nearly doubled its surplus with the US to a record $146.8 billion, cheerfully exempt from tariffs while flooding America with the semiconductors needed to power the AI boom.

In a nutshell, America's tariff revolution delivered maximum chaos and minimum results — the overall deficit hit a record $901.5 billion while the China gap simply relocated to Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan.

As financial history books may one day record, Blue Owl Capital is auditioning for the role that New Century Financial played in the subprime debacle — the canary in the private credit coal mine. Having previously allowed a generous 17% quarterly redemption rate — itself a flashing warning sign — the private credit giant has now done what all gated funds eventually do when the cockroaches multiply: slammed the door entirely. Investors in OBDC II will no longer be able to redeem shares quarterly; instead, they will receive their money back through "periodic distributions" — which is financial industry speak for "whenever we manage to sell something."

https://www.reuters.com/business/blue-owl-sells-14-bln-debt-funds-pension-insurance-investors-2026-02-18/