While elites popped champagne in Davos and markets popped Japanese government bond yields, the U.S. Treasury quietly sold $13bn of 20-year paper at a 4.846% high yield—up from 4.798% a month ago and the highest since August—yet still stopping through the 4.856% when-issued rate by 1bp, marking the sixth stop-through in seven auctions.

Demand was so strong it bordered on indecent: the bid-to-cover jumped to 2.86 from 2.67 in December, the second-highest on record, beaten only once in June 2023 when buyers clearly skipped lunch. Internals were slightly less heroic—Indirects took 64.72%, a touch below last time but still comfortably above average—while Directs showed up like it was a clearance sale, grabbing a record-tied 29.1%. Dealers, meanwhile, were left holding just 6.2%, effectively reduced to spectators wondering how the buffet emptied so fast.

Overall, this was a stellar 20-year auction—proof that many investors still haven’t quite grasped that under the rule of the Educated Yet Idiots, who squeeze trust in public institutions like lemons at a street stall, the asset once known as “risk-free” has quietly evolved into one of the riskiest things you can own. In other words, the bond market is applauding loudly, while the irony does all the heavy lifting.

While the Interventionist-in-Chief tours the globalist cocktail circuit, U.S. housing has quietly flipped into a buyer’s market: Redfin counts 37.2% more sellers than buyers in November, the widest gap since 2013 (pandemic summers aside). It’s not 2008 redux, but it is a clear signal that confidence—not bricks—is what’s really cracking.

https://www.redfin.com/news/buyers-vs-sellers-november-2025/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

When the seller–buyer gap widens, the fake news declares demand dead and prices doomed. What they miss is that housing is frozen by interest rates, not collapsing. Sellers are mentally anchored to 2021 prices, while buyers are stuck with 2026 financing: millions refinanced at 2.5–3% and won’t voluntarily trade that for 6%+ unless life forces their hand. Buyers are scarce because affordability is brutal; sellers still appear because life events don’t wait. Add to that the inconvenient truth that there is no single U.S. housing market— shaped by local taxes, jobs, migration, and politics, right down to the neighborhood and school district down to the neighborhood and school district.

As Confucius might sigh: when homes are priced like palaces, rates bite like tigers, and rice grows costly, the people choose patience over purchase. When confidence leaves the household, the housing market follows—because no one buys a roof while the ground beneath their feet feels unsure.

The Macro Butler grabbed a front-row seat with Geopolitics & Empire pire to crack open the Don-Roe Doctrine’s Pandora’s box—tracing how “Fortress America” fuels geopolitical mayhem, financial whiplash, and the classic fate of plutocratic republics that rot from within.

👉 Tune in, and decide whether history is repeating—or speeding up.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-geopolitics-and-empire-7a0

Like a Swiss watch that refuses to be late—or exciting—headline PCE inflation ticked along at a tidy 0.2% in both October and November. Core PCE, the Fed’s favourite toy, behaved nicely too, easing from 0.21% to 0.16% month-on-month and sitting stubbornly at 2.8% year-on-year. Short-term annualized measures cooled further, but don’t pop the champagne yet: “supercore” services inflation is still stretching its legs, while market-based prices stayed well-behaved, reminding us that inflation is calm… but not quite asleep.

Consumers kept spending like nothing’s wrong, with real outlays up a solid 0.3% in both October and November, led by a comeback in goods after September’s slump. Income, however, shuffled along more cautiously—just 0.1% in October and 0.3% in November—carried mostly by wages, with a cameo from government transfers and a few missing lines from dividends and business income.

The punchline writes itself: savings slid to 3.5%, as Americans continue to shop now and worry about the balance later. Income growth has been a rollercoaster through 2025, whipsawed by policy-driven swings in transfers and a midyear labour-market cooldown, before wages and hiring reclaimed centre stage in the fall. Looking ahead, a steadier labour market should keep unemployment stable—but without faster income growth, consumers may be forced to trade impulse buys for selectivity. With savings at a three-year low, spending can limp on for a while, but from here on out, credit conditions—not confidence—hold the remote.

In a nutshell, inflation is calm but wide awake, consumers are spending like it’s fine, incomes are limping, and with savings at a three-year low, the U.S. economy is increasingly running on credit rather than confidence.

On his flight back from the globalist mothership, Donald Copperfield apparently had time to sue JPMorgan, accusing it—via a Miami court filing—of failing to live up to its own lofty “we always do the right thing” code of conduct. According to his lawyer, the bank showed its zero tolerance for unethical behaviour by abruptly shutting down Trump-related accounts in 2021, with no warning, no appeal, and no exit ramp, despite having happily processed hundreds of millions before. The message, it seems, was simple: principles are sacred… until they’re inconvenient.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/22/trump-sues-jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-chase.html

JPMorgan responded to the lawsuit with a straight face and a regulator-shaped shield, explaining that it didn’t want to close the accounts—it was simply compelled by the mysterious forces of “rules and regulatory expectations,” which apparently make banks do regrettable things they totally disagree with. In the same breath, the bank lamented that regulations have become so awkward they’re now begging Washington to stop the “weaponization of banking,” ideally without changing anything about how banks behave.

The Macro Butler returned to the Piggo’s Trading Desk to decode the latest wisdom from the ‘World Entertainment Forum’ (WEF)’s finest globalists—confirming, once again, that wars and grand agendas aren’t just talking points, they hit everyone’s wallet.

The takeaway? If you don’t want your portfolio to be the next casualty of geopolitical chaos, it’s time to stop applauding the speeches and start positioning in energy and commodity producers.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-piggos-trading-desk-129

While two members of the self-styled “Board of Peace” pretended to court a ceasefire they don’t actually want, President “Macro-Leon” borrowed straight from the Don-Roe playbook and went full maritime sheriff. A Russia-linked tanker from the infamous “shadow fleet” was politely but firmly hijacked—sorry, diverted—in the Mediterranean, proving Europe will now enforce virtue anywhere there’s salt water. ‘Le Petit Napoleon’ thundered “we will let nothing pass,” just as European leaders briefly looked away from the Greenland drama, reminding us that piracy is unacceptable unless it’s done for the right values. The tanker—conveniently named Grinch, flying a fake Comoros flag with an Indian crew—was nabbed near Spain with UK intel, confirming that in today’s geopolitics, even the high seas aren’t neutral, just selectively moral.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-navy-intercepts-sanctioned-russian-tanker-mediterranean-macron-says-2026-01-22/

While Japan’s bond market quietly catches fire, the Bank of Japan struck its best this-is-fine pose—holding rates at 0.75% (a 30-year high) while upgrading inflation forecasts and hinting that the next hike may arrive sooner than summer. One lone hawk dissented, everyone else waited on elections and politics. Add a tax-cut pledge from Tokyo’s political class and you get the full BOJ routine: do nothing today, talk tough about tomorrow, and hope the bond market behaves in the meantime.

The BOJ added a few more hawkish winks to ‘its nothing-to-see-here act’, softening its risk assessment, trimming cautionary language, and quietly floating the idea that an April rate hike is very much on the table. Governor Ueda promised to be “nimble” in smoothing bond-market volatility—right after a long-bond meltdown sent yields to multi-decade highs—while reminding everyone that April price hikes by Japanese firms will be carefully watched.

In short, in the country of the rising sun, inflation forecasts are up, confidence is rising, the yen is sinking—and the BOJ is still hoping words will do the heavy lifting.

Welcome to the great U.S. “buyer’s market,” where investors quietly snapped up about one in three single-family homes in Q2 2025 and Washington is now arguing over the dictionary definition of “institutional investor.” The Interventionist-in-Chief wants to ban them to appease an angry electorate priced out of the American Dream—but blaming Wall Street for housing unaffordability is easier than admitting policy vaporized purchasing power, jacked up living costs, and now offers… more regulation as the cure. In short, when government breaks affordability, it sues the mirror.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/01/stopping-wall-street-from-competing-with-main-street-homebuyers/

Institutional investors didn’t wake up one morning twirling their mustaches and plotting the death of homeownership—they simply followed the incentives policymakers left lying around. The real villains are supply bottlenecks, soaring building and ownership costs, and mortgage rates that have turned homeowners into hostages, leaving a market with 37% more sellers than buyers.

Slapping a fuzzy ban on “institutional investors” won’t fix affordability—it’ll just kneecap small landlords and builders, solve nothing, and let policymakers declare victory before lunch.

https://t.me/TheMacroButlerSubstack/1286