🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 Natural disasters, a towering wall of debt refinancing, rising tariffs, and the relentless slow burn of reflation are poised to ignite a financial misfire into a full-blown wildfire. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/financial-misfire

‘1,000 friends too few; one enemy too many’—so said the Indonesian president at SPIEF last week, channelling pure diplomatic poetry while standing next to Putin.

The Global South cheered.

Meanwhile, the declining West was too busy handing out war games and pushing its Malthusian bedtime stories to notice. Priorities, right?

Full Speech here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POhJQEO6yrA

The self-proclaimed ‘Peacemaker-in-Chief’—who in reality plays the role of ‘Warmonger-in-Chief’—would be more accurately titled the ‘Schizophrenic-in-Chief’ or better yet, the ‘Egocentric-in-Chief.’ After all, in his narcissistic world, war is just a high-stakes soccer match, and anyone outside his plutocratic circle is merely a disposable spectator.

He may delude himself into thinking it was a tidy 12-day war—but history will remember it as the opening act of a holy war that will rage through the decade and well beyond.

While diplomacy is now apparently conducted via social media posts and hashtags, the US Flash PMI did its own version of humblebragging: Manufacturing was totally flat—but hey, it beat expectations (52.0 vs 51.0), so that’s a win in Fed-speak. Services also edged down a touch but still managed to outshine forecasts (53.1 vs 52.9). So yes, the economy is slowing, but it’s beating expectations while doing it—kind of like bragging about jogging slower than last year but still faster than your neighbour. Meanwhile, service sector prices jumped again—because tariffs, wages, fuel, and financing costs apparently missed the memo about disinflation.

In a nutshell, the US economy’s cooling off but still beating expectations—while service prices keep sprinting thanks to tariffs, wages, and rising costs.

The Kabuki master, forever dazzled by his own delusions and proudly strutting as the ‘Peacemaker-in-Chief,’ still hasn’t grasped that his so-called truce is just an intermission in a much longer, messier holy war. It’s the kind of sequel that costs you the presidency—because America First doesn’t mean Israel Firstest, no matter how many flags you wave or bunker busters you drop.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mCQHeXq1Mg

Because only a truly enlightened fool could believe the war in the Middle East is over, the Brussels-based warmongers of the North Atlantic Terror Organisation (yes, #NATO) are back at it—this time under the proud leadership of their finest #WEF-trained Gouda puppet.

Naturally, they’ve extended the guest list to include other WEF proxies such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand—because what better way to strategize about dominating the Global South than over canapés and collective delusion?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymb_rJxRUYw

While NATO’s finest brainstorm their next creative false flag to finally unlock Article 5 like it’s a bonus level in a war-themed video game, the U.S. Treasury quietly slipped $69 billion in 2-year notes into the market. The yield? A modest 3.786%—the lowest since September 2024—because apparently even global chaos can't keep rates elevated forever. It even stopped through the WI by a whole 0.1bps—marking the fourth "through" in five auctions.

The bid-to-cover came in at 2.576—basically a copy-paste from last month’s 2.567, though still a hair below the six-auction average of 2.61. Under the hood, things looked a bit meh: Indirects dialed back their enthusiasm, grabbing just 60.5% (down from May’s 63.3% and well below the 71.3% average). Directs held steady at 26.3%, leaving Dealers to clean up the leftovers at 13.2%—a bigger plate than last month’s 10.5% and above the recent 11.2% average. Nothing screams confidence like slightly warm leftovers.