China built its factories when confidence was high and globalization smiled. Now that confidence frowns at home, those same factories bow deeply and ship goods abroad at almost any price. Exports rise, margins shrink, and tensions grow—such is balance. Shipments to the U.S. fell 20%, yet China simply sells to the rest of the village, for a wise merchant does not rely on one customer. Weak consumption and a troubled property sector mean exports now carry the economy on their back, producing a $1.2 trillion surplus that looks impressive but walks with a limp. As Confucius might say: when capital flees, controls tighten, and exports do all the work, stability is spoken of—but contraction is already clearing its throat while the rise of China is unstoppable as the Middle Kingdom is shaping itself to dominate the world by the next decade as its time is coming.

In a nutshell, as trade-war noise peaked, China quietly rerouted its factories, logged a $1.2 trillion surplus, and proved that when one gate closes the Middle Kingdom simply builds ten more—though exporting strength today may be masking the strains of tomorrow.

The Macro Butler joined Umar Tasleem on Türkiye’s Diplomacy (A-News) for a cordial autopsy of the “Don-Roe Doctrine,” exploring its financial consequences in a world where the rule of law has quietly stepped aside and the rule of the game now seems to be written in social media tweets.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-turkiyes-diplomacy-ec3

The Macro Butler sat down with The Contrarian Capitalist (Robert Smallbone) to calmly dissect a world where the rule of law is no longer the rule of the game—and, with a straight face, discuss how investors might profit from the rising tide of geopolitical chaos heading into 2026.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-the-contrarian-capitalist-2bd

The Macro Butler sat down with Cris Sheridan from Financial Sense to explain why the “Magnificent Seven” already lost their capes to the “Shiny Seven,” as geopolitically induced supply-chain chaos and strategic shortages send investors back to the original superpower: commodities—needed to fuel AI, electrify everything, and help build Fortress America.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-financial-sense-15012026

As the drums of war grow louder and regime-change risk moves from theory to timeline, capital flight has begun in Iran. More than $1.5 billion reportedly flowed to Dubai within 48 hours, much of it via cryptocurrency—a familiar exit route when confidence collapses. According to regional sources, figures close to the regime, including members of the Supreme Leader’s inner circle, are believed to be securing their escape before the door closes.


https://www.iranintl.com/en/202601156396

Moving money offshore may feel clever, but governments have a long memory and even longer reach. The UAE enforces UN sanctions, MLATs turn tax treaties into asset-freezing boomerangs, and crypto—despite the marketing—is about as “off-grid” as a loyalty card.

The moment funds hit Dubai, the blockchain lit up like a Christmas tree, with Washington happily following the trail using tools designed precisely for this purpose.
Governments tolerate crypto the way they tolerate house cats: only if they stay indoors, declawed, and obedient. Tehran’s theatrics and Washington’s dragnet simply confirm the same endgame—sovereignty gone, trust gone, credibility exhausted. When a regime runs out of belief, history shows the countdown doesn’t need a press release.

While Kyiv’s leader rehearses Davos-approved slogans about sacrifice and destiny, reality files for desertion: 200,000 soldiers have gone AWOL—more than the entire UK military. The new defense minister now calmly announces a nationwide manhunt for two million citizens guilty of the ultimate crime in managed democracies: refusing to be mobilized. In this brave new order, slogans march forward, bodies disappear, and arithmetic—not ideology—quietly exposes the lie.



https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/14/world/ukraines-new-defense-chief-reveals-200-000-soldiers-have-gone-awol-and-2-million-are-draft-dodging

In April 2024, the acceptable age for sacrifice was quietly lowered from 27 to 25, with mobilization now stretching from 25 to 60—because in a nation of 40 million, bodies are just another resource to be reclassified. Two million men are officially labeled “evaders,” down from six million only months ago, proof not of compliance but of statistical housekeeping. Exit, like everything else, has a price: $7,000 for organized desertion, $3,500 to vanish from the registry. Borders close, lists grow, Romania detains the runners, and compliance is rebranded as patriotism. In this system, freedom is optional, obedience is mandatory, and survival is increasingly off-budget.

https://x.com/FelisRevolt/status/2008065780777365816?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2008065780777365816%7Ctwgr%5Ef764ba310cdac319bd3c584b675151ea50315245%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.armstrongeconomics.com%2Fworld-news%2Fwar%2F2-million-draft-evaders-wanted-by-ukraine%2F

Going AWOL earns five to twelve years—unless the state needs bodies more than prisoners. Ukraine is burning through a generation while Europe watches, knowing the script will soon be reused. Training lasts two weeks, compliance is enforced by “busification,” and rotation is a luxury no longer available. With belief gone and manpower exhausted, soldiers are fed into the front line as expendable inputs.
Four years on, peace is absent, escalation is policy, and destruction is demanded by elites safely observing from glass towers while fear does the fighting below.

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

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https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/broken-currency-the-mechanics-of-5ba

Channelling the European chapter of the Don-Roe Doctrine, Tariff Man has announced that, starting February 1, a 10% tariff will be slapped on some European countries still insisting that Greenland belongs to “Eurostan.” Failure to negotiate its transformation into America’s 51st state will trigger an upgrade to a deluxe 25% tariff—because nothing says diplomacy like a price hike and a real-estate fantasy.

Still auditioning for a Central Banker-in-Chief, Donald Copperfield turned instead to his favourite stage: Truth Social—this time picking a public fight with JPMorgan and ‘Dimon CEO’. He threatened to sue the bank, claiming it “debanked” him after January 6, while also denying a Wall Street Journal report that he once floated Dimon for Fed chair (which Dimon apparently heard as a joke—accurately).

Dimon, for his part, made things crystal clear: Fed Chair? Absolutely not. No way. No how. Treasury? “I’d take the call.” JPMorgan responded with the usual corporate calm, insisting accounts shouldn’t be closed over politics and applauding efforts to curb “political debanking.”

Meanwhile, Donald Copperfield still won’t name who replaces ‘Subpoenaed Powell’ in May, Dimon keeps defending Fed independence, and the whole saga confirms one thing: the magician hasn’t picked his next puppet yet—but the smoke machines are already on full blast.

In Orwellian fashion, yesterday’s enemy has become today’s indispensable friend—and citizens are reminded that this has always been the plan.

‘Marx Carney,’ Canada’s Prime Minister, did not campaign on fixing Canada so much as warning Canadians about the existential menace of Donald Copperfield and, conveniently, the rest of the planet.

Like all well-trained Davos marionettes, convictions are swapped as easily as a bartender flips cocktails.
In 2025, just before the election, China was the paramount security threat; today, a “strategic partnership” with Beijing is suddenly perfectly aligned with the New World Order.

https://x.com/i/status/2012196685481476445

The Macro Butler made a quick pit stop on Asharq Bloomberg TV on a Sunday evening to explain how the world’s ongoing geopolitical chaos is likely to trip over oil supply just as demand refuses to cooperate with the bears—shaking up a perfectly explosive cocktail for prices.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-asharq-bloomberg-tv-e1c

🚨 Important Announcement for The Macro Butler Community 🚨

Starting January 24th, The Macro Butler Substack enters a new chapter: it will become member-only

Look for the details here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/important-announcement-for-the-macro

In the latest episode of the slow-motion unmaking of the United States, Minnesota’s governor 'Tampon Tim' —once an aspirant to higher office in the imagined United Socialist Republic—floated the idea of deploying the state’s National Guard against federal agents, solemnly insisting this was all in the name of “community.” Declaring Minnesota done with Washington’s help, he framed a warning order as peacekeeping while carefully reminding everyone the troops were trained and ready.



https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2009006244493681131?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2009006244493681131%7Ctwgr%5E026cc325b8282e50ecdc6a3c3324a48e96265732%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.armstrongeconomics.com%2Finternational-news%2Fpolitics%2Ftim-walz-calls-for-an-insurrection%2F