Overall, it was a “solid” auction—proof that plenty of investors still believe the Wall Street fairy tale that government IOUs are risk-free, even as they quietly morph into the riskiest asset to hold heading into inevitable ‘Trump Stagflation’ and the oncoming Year of the Fire Horse.

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In Eurostan, the Educated Yet Idiots are preparing to “recycle” frozen Russian assets to fund their forever agenda, only to be reminded by Fitch that confiscation dressed up as virtue tends to carry consequences.

The ratings agency promptly put Euroclear on negative watch, warning that the EU’s €210bn “Reparations Loan” could unleash legal warfare, capital flight, and a gentle undermining of the euro itself.

Eurostan’s Malthusian-in-Chief, Kaja Kallas, helpfully explained that the EU’s paralysis is due to having “only” 27 member states—several of which now refuse to bless outright asset seizure. Belgium, home of Euroclear and first in line to hold the liability bag, is under pressure, while Hungary, Slovakia, Italy, Bulgaria, Malta, and the Czech Republic quietly rebel.
Even the IMF and ECB have waved red flags, warning that confiscation masquerading as policy may frighten investors away. Germany pegs the odds of agreement at a neat 50%, Russia promises lawsuits, and the message is clear: in the EU, property rights are negotiable, unity is optional, and financial stability is a shared illusion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYE_5IU_v-o

In a nutshell, Eurostan’s plan to “recycle” frozen assets has Fitch, investors, and half the EU whispering the same punchline: when property rights become optional, lawsuits are guaranteed and stability is just another policy slogan.

🤵 The Macro Butler Special Service 🤵

🌐 As America stumbles into another round of inflation, the real danger isn’t the chaos—it’s the delusion driving it. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/inflation-delusion-and-the-architects

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https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/inflation-delusion-and-the-architects-cbb

With immaculate political correctness, the ECB left rates exactly where they were and declared—very flexibly—that the cutting cycle is probably over, unless it isn’t. After eight cuts from 4% to 2%, rates are expected to stay put indefinitely, with hikes “premature,” cuts still “optional,” and inflation conveniently projected back to 2%… by 2028. In short: nothing was decided, every option remains open, and the data will speak—once it agrees with the script.

In a nutshell, the ECB froze rates, declared victory over inflation sometime around 2028, and reassured markets that nothing is decided, everything is possible, and confusion remains fully data-dependent.

Right on cue—and after years of monetizing credibility to keep zombie politicians comfortable—the Bank of Japan finally lifted rates to a 30-year high, an entirely predictable move dressed up as newfound “conviction.” After exhausting yield-curve control as a political favor disguised as policy, the BOJ now insists inflation is finally behaving and that more hikes are coming, provided reality continues to cooperate. Markets, unsurprisingly, were not impressed: the move was fully priced, unanimously expected, and does little to repair the damage done to one of the world’s most politicized central banks. The result is straightforward—rising JGB yields, a structurally weaker yen, and a slow realization that a quarter-point hike does not magically restore decades of lost monetary credibility.

In a nutshell, after torching its credibility with years of yield-curve control, the BOJ’s long-overdue rate hike is less a policy pivot than a cosmetic fix—fully priced, and unlikely to stop higher JGB yields or a weaker yen.

The Macro Butler just snagged an extra seat at Piggo’s Trading Desk to unpack the “inflation is over” fairy tale and serve up some spicy predictions for the Year of the Fire Horse.

Grab your coffee—this one’s going to be a wild ride!

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-piggos-trading-desk-ba9

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In a masterclass of Orwellian courage, EU leaders bravely decided not to “steal” Russian assets but instead heroically loan €90 billion of EU taxpayers’ money to Ukraine—money that will, of course, never be repaid—funded by fresh joint debt, while frozen Russian assets sit untouched, leaders declare victory, and Europe reassures itself that shifting the bill from Moscow to its own citizens is somehow a triumph of principle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJZEAxnk-iQ

Despite holiday cheer and year-end discounts doing their best sales pitch, US consumers remained unimpressed: December sentiment rose, but only just, staying stuck in the “everything is still too expensive” zone. The Michigan index crept up to 52.9—below expectations—with current conditions hitting a fresh low as shoppers decided big-ticket items are a hard “no.” Inflation expectations eased a bit, but between pricey groceries, shaky job confidence, and wallets still on strike, consumers aren’t feeling festive—they’re feeling frugal.

In a nutshell, holiday discounts tried their charm, but US consumers shrugged—sentiment barely budged as high prices, job anxiety, and wallet fatigue kept the festive mood firmly off the shopping list.

This is 1 of 10 bold financial forecasts from The Macro Butler—and it’s just the appetizer.

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🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 Once sold as safe, bonds have quietly become the riskiest asset to own—until the Educated Yet Idiots run the world. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/bonds-from-risk-free-to-riskiest

When trust in public institutions is run by Educated Yet Idiots, even “risk-free” bonds start playing with matches 🔥—and in Japan, that means 10-year JGB yields heading north of 4% in the Year of the Fire Horse.

🎥 Catch the short: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/vfwQeVVaRrU

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