Dear Investors,

Please find below the November 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Strategic Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-strategic-portfolio-6b6

The Macro Butler made his final November pit stop in Dubai on Asharq Bloomberg TV—where he unpacked why oil prices may soon wake up again, thanks to fresh drama stretching from the Black Sea to Venezuela, all while China stockpiles crude like it’s preparing for an oil-themed Black Friday.

The interview has been translated into Arabic.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-asharq-bloomberg-tv-af9

🤵 The Macro Butler’s Monthly Meditation 🤵

🌐 As AI sparks a voracious appetite for electricity, plug in and power up to learn how to ride the surge and profit from the looming energy demand crunch. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butlers-monthly-meditation-be9

Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler Monthly Meditation via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/mind-the-grid-podcast

As America’s inflationary boom drifts gracefully toward an inflationary bust—like a hot-air balloon leaking air while everyone insists it’s “fine”—the ISM Manufacturing PMI slid to 48.2, with employment sinking, demand softening, and prices doing the one thing the Fed wishes they wouldn’t: rising. Policymakers will pretend to focus on weak orders and sagging jobs while politely ignoring the awkward fact that tariffs are inflating steel and aluminium costs across the value chain. Production somehow perked up even as new orders fell, inventories thinned, and supplier deliveries sped up—normally a sign of efficiency, but in today’s tariff-war economy, it mostly signals chaos wearing a nice suit.

In a nutshell, America’s inflationary boom is wobbling into an inflationary bust, with manufacturing weakening, prices rising, and tariffs turning the economy into a sitcom where every punchline is a policy failure.

The world’s paragon of clean governance has unveiled Diia.AI — proudly billed as the first national AI assistant that can deliver real government services through a chat box. Powered by Google’s Gemini 2.0 Flash and running on a hybrid on-prem/cloud setup, it promises “secure” digital governance by keeping state-registry data off the cloud… because nothing says trust like a cutting-edge AI layered on top of a famously airtight bureaucracy.

https://digitalstate.gov.ua/news/tech/diiaai-pratsiuye-na-tekhnolohiyi-gemini-35-tysiach-ukrayintsiv-vze-skorystalysia-novym-derzavnym-ai-servisom

Kyivstar, now proudly trading in the U.S., has rolled out 3,500 generators to keep the country’s shiny new AI infrastructure humming through missile strikes — because nothing says “stable investment climate” like blackout-proof chatbots. Europe’s tech firms and Microsoft are busy helping build Ukraine’s AI machine, pouring in cash as if war were just a minor inconvenience.

“Sovereign AI” here simply means a state-run data vacuum with real-time surveillance — the kind of system Brussels wishes it could launch if voters didn’t keep getting in the way. And while Western governments keep signing long-term checks, the whole project raises the obvious question: who exactly is Ukraine’s digital future designed to empower?

https://www.stocktitan.net/news/KYIV/kyivstar-ministry-of-digital-transformation-of-ukraine-select-google-2jdeb0xacxhi.html

Ukraine will parade this program as proof it has transcended corruption and deserves a fast-track into the EU — maybe even NATO if the marketing is good enough. But “Sovereign AI” won’t rebuild the economy, clean up institutions, or end the war. What it will do is hand politicians a surveillance toolkit worthy of a dystopian sequel: monitoring dissent, enforcing obedience, and reshaping society to match their politics. That’s not a bug — it’s the well-worn path of every government in decline, and history has yet to offer a single exception.

While The Manipulator-in-Chief keeps insisting the U.S. economy is flexing like Hercules, the latest ADP report shows more of a limp than a lunge: private-sector payrolls fell 32,000 in November, the fourth drop in six months, with small businesses dumping 120,000 jobs — the worst since May 2020. Hiring is now so “choppy” that even economists are reaching for seasickness pills, big firms like Apple and Verizon are trimming headcount, and wage growth is cooling faster than Thanksgiving leftovers. But sure, keep telling us the labor market is “strong,” because nothing says economic might like shrinking payrolls, falling wages, and a jobs report delayed by a government shutdown.

In a nutshell, the “Hercules economy” is looking more like a sprained ankle, with payrolls shrinking, small businesses bleeding jobs, and wage growth cooling despite all the political bragging.

US Services activity picked up in November, largely because the government finally reopened and everyone scrambled to finish year-end projects like students cramming the night before exams. The ISM index ticked up, orders slowed but stayed positive, and companies are still begging people to return to the office — with limited success. Prices eased a bit, though suppliers are still playing “tariff bingo,” unsure what anything should cost. In short: activity is moving, nerves are frayed, and everyone’s pretending this is normal while hoping the Fed comes in with a year-end rate-cut miracle.

In a nutshell, Services bounced back in November, powered by post-shutdown catch-up work and chaotic tariff-driven pricing — all while everyone prays the Fed shows up with a holiday rate-cut gift.

In an era where geoeconomics governs reality and liquidity remains the leash of nations, South Korea and China have quietly extended their 400-billion-yuan swap line — a five-year renewal that doubles as a non-dollar lifeline should the global monetary order wobble or Washington decide who may trade and who may vanish from SWIFT. Framed as “cooperation,” the deal grants Seoul access to yuan liquidity for trade settlement while subtly reminding the world that dependence on the dollar comes with consequences. Wrapped in diplomatic ceremony and backed by China’s vast web of swap lines, the agreement offers South Korea not liberation, but another layer of insurance in a system where every hedge — even gold — signals growing distrust of the architects of the global financial machine.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/bilateral-swaps-role-in-chinas-rising-global-footprint/article33330279.ece

In a nutshell, South Korea’s renewal of its 400-billion-yuan swap line with China is a quiet, strategic hedge against dollar-dependence in an increasingly unstable, geopolitically policed financial order.

The Macro Butler grabbed an extra armchair and joined Piggo’s Trading Desk to chat about America’s newest coworkers—Ai & robots—how they’re vacuuming up jobs, why everything feels unaffordable, and the economic storm brewing on the road to 2026.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-piggos-trading-desk-2b0

While Donald Copperfield is still waving his wand and bragging about economic “strength,” reality is busy filing paperwork: Subchapter V bankruptcies for small businesses have climbed 8% to 2,221 as of November 2025.

And no, this surge isn’t because of the tariffs or whatever new trick the Magician-in-Chief is rehearsing—it’s the long shadow of rising interest rates since 2022 choking off the era of cheap, reckless credit. Big and small firms alike gorged on easy money, not to mention the PPP buffet. Now, with inflation refusing to leave the party, everything costs more—especially borrowing. Small businesses are being squeezed to death, consumers are buying less for more, and the essentials are increasingly going on plastic.

The illusion is impressive; the reality, not so much.

The problem isn’t some tariff-induced hiccup—it’s a full-blown structural unraveling, the inevitable slide from boom to bust as the economy’s foundation cracks beneath the political theatre, threatening to wobble the entire financial system no matter how many magic tricks are performed on stage.

The Macro Butler was dragged out of bed at dawn for another BFM 89.9 interview, this time to diagnose the latest aches and pains of the U.S. job market and decipher how the Fed’s soon-to-be new Governor will juggle rising unemployment with stubborn prices in 2026 — and, of course, what that circus means for your portfolio from New York to Hong Kong.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-bfm-899-malaysia-05122025

As predictably as Monday follows Sunday, September’s headline PCE — as fresh as an avocado toast forgotten in a hipster café — clocked in at 0.3%. Core PCE inched down, supercore eased, and spending basically flatlined, with Americans buying less stuff but still paying more for the privilege. Incomes rose just enough to pretend everything’s fine, while the savings rate stayed stuck at its annual low. Bottom line: inflation is still too spicy for the Fed, but the real economy looks more like lukewarm soup — hardly the reacceleration story anyone wants to sell heading into the holidays.