🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 As BRICS challenge the Petrodollar, is the dollar dominance really ending? 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/currency-regime-change-is-dollar

Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/currency-regime-change-is-dollar-b91

As the Jubilee winds down, China’s November PMI shows the economy wobbling like a teacup on a rickety table: services tumbled into contraction, manufacturing and construction remain stuck in the doldrums, and consumption hints at a further nap. The official manufacturing PMI barely nudged to 49.2—still shy of the magical 50 that separates expansion from contraction—while the non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5, marking the first post-reopening contraction. In short, growth may hit the 5% target for the year, but meaningful government support will likely arrive in early 2026, leaving the final weeks of 2025 to the patience of sages… or the stomachs of mandarins.

The Chinese economy looks set to cruise in the slow lane through year-end, with private demand stuck in neutral and no fresh stimulus on the horizon—after all, the 5% annual growth target is almost in the bag. Meanwhile, the mandarins are quietly prepping 2026, fast-tracking projects and lining up funding. For commodity investors, a softer China PMI signals gold may keep outshining copper in the coming months.

In a nutshell, China’s economy teeters in neutral as year-end approaches, with PMI contraction signaling a slow ride for growth while gold quietly outshines copper.

Dear Investors,

Please find below the November 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Long/Short Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-longshort-portfolio-935

Dear Investors,

Please find below the November 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler IG Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-ig-portfolio-november-82f

Dear Investors,

Please find below the November 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Strategic Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-strategic-portfolio-6b6

The Macro Butler made his final November pit stop in Dubai on Asharq Bloomberg TV—where he unpacked why oil prices may soon wake up again, thanks to fresh drama stretching from the Black Sea to Venezuela, all while China stockpiles crude like it’s preparing for an oil-themed Black Friday.

The interview has been translated into Arabic.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-asharq-bloomberg-tv-af9

🤵 The Macro Butler’s Monthly Meditation 🤵

🌐 As AI sparks a voracious appetite for electricity, plug in and power up to learn how to ride the surge and profit from the looming energy demand crunch. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butlers-monthly-meditation-be9

Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler Monthly Meditation via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/mind-the-grid-podcast

As America’s inflationary boom drifts gracefully toward an inflationary bust—like a hot-air balloon leaking air while everyone insists it’s “fine”—the ISM Manufacturing PMI slid to 48.2, with employment sinking, demand softening, and prices doing the one thing the Fed wishes they wouldn’t: rising. Policymakers will pretend to focus on weak orders and sagging jobs while politely ignoring the awkward fact that tariffs are inflating steel and aluminium costs across the value chain. Production somehow perked up even as new orders fell, inventories thinned, and supplier deliveries sped up—normally a sign of efficiency, but in today’s tariff-war economy, it mostly signals chaos wearing a nice suit.

In a nutshell, America’s inflationary boom is wobbling into an inflationary bust, with manufacturing weakening, prices rising, and tariffs turning the economy into a sitcom where every punchline is a policy failure.

The world’s paragon of clean governance has unveiled Diia.AI — proudly billed as the first national AI assistant that can deliver real government services through a chat box. Powered by Google’s Gemini 2.0 Flash and running on a hybrid on-prem/cloud setup, it promises “secure” digital governance by keeping state-registry data off the cloud… because nothing says trust like a cutting-edge AI layered on top of a famously airtight bureaucracy.

https://digitalstate.gov.ua/news/tech/diiaai-pratsiuye-na-tekhnolohiyi-gemini-35-tysiach-ukrayintsiv-vze-skorystalysia-novym-derzavnym-ai-servisom

Kyivstar, now proudly trading in the U.S., has rolled out 3,500 generators to keep the country’s shiny new AI infrastructure humming through missile strikes — because nothing says “stable investment climate” like blackout-proof chatbots. Europe’s tech firms and Microsoft are busy helping build Ukraine’s AI machine, pouring in cash as if war were just a minor inconvenience.

“Sovereign AI” here simply means a state-run data vacuum with real-time surveillance — the kind of system Brussels wishes it could launch if voters didn’t keep getting in the way. And while Western governments keep signing long-term checks, the whole project raises the obvious question: who exactly is Ukraine’s digital future designed to empower?

https://www.stocktitan.net/news/KYIV/kyivstar-ministry-of-digital-transformation-of-ukraine-select-google-2jdeb0xacxhi.html

Ukraine will parade this program as proof it has transcended corruption and deserves a fast-track into the EU — maybe even NATO if the marketing is good enough. But “Sovereign AI” won’t rebuild the economy, clean up institutions, or end the war. What it will do is hand politicians a surveillance toolkit worthy of a dystopian sequel: monitoring dissent, enforcing obedience, and reshaping society to match their politics. That’s not a bug — it’s the well-worn path of every government in decline, and history has yet to offer a single exception.

While The Manipulator-in-Chief keeps insisting the U.S. economy is flexing like Hercules, the latest ADP report shows more of a limp than a lunge: private-sector payrolls fell 32,000 in November, the fourth drop in six months, with small businesses dumping 120,000 jobs — the worst since May 2020. Hiring is now so “choppy” that even economists are reaching for seasickness pills, big firms like Apple and Verizon are trimming headcount, and wage growth is cooling faster than Thanksgiving leftovers. But sure, keep telling us the labor market is “strong,” because nothing says economic might like shrinking payrolls, falling wages, and a jobs report delayed by a government shutdown.

In a nutshell, the “Hercules economy” is looking more like a sprained ankle, with payrolls shrinking, small businesses bleeding jobs, and wage growth cooling despite all the political bragging.

US Services activity picked up in November, largely because the government finally reopened and everyone scrambled to finish year-end projects like students cramming the night before exams. The ISM index ticked up, orders slowed but stayed positive, and companies are still begging people to return to the office — with limited success. Prices eased a bit, though suppliers are still playing “tariff bingo,” unsure what anything should cost. In short: activity is moving, nerves are frayed, and everyone’s pretending this is normal while hoping the Fed comes in with a year-end rate-cut miracle.