In a nutshell, America’s latest data brew shows services feasting, factories fretting, and inflation stirring again—proof that even in economics, the yin and yang never take a day off.

In the great Confucian theater of American economics, November’s consumer sentiment plunged again, as if reminding us that “he who stares too long at prices rising will soon feel his wallet shrinking.” Despite inflation fears softening, households—especially those without stock portfolios—grow gloomier about finances, jobs, and big-ticket purchases. Even with the government reopened, the sages of Michigan report a nation where the wealthy keep spending while everyone else tightens their belts, proving once more that headline statistics often hide the cracks beneath the porcelain.

In a nutshell, November consumer sentiment in the U.S. sank to near-record lows, as non-stockholders fret over finances and jobs while the wealthy keep spending.

The Macro Butler wishes you a Happy Thanksgiving—and safe passage through the annual migration ritual known as “airport chaos season.”

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-week-that-it-was-as-of-november

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https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-week-that-it-was-as-of-november-7da

As America’s turkeys nervously pre-heat themselves for destiny, the U.S. government went ahead and served a financial appetizer: a $69 billion auction of 2-year notes. The yield came out at 3.489%—slightly lower than October’s 3.504% and the lowest since August 2022—landing perfectly “on the screws,” just like that one relative who insists they carve the turkey exactly right.

The bid-to-cover came in at 2.684—up from 2.590 and the highest since August—suggesting investors were lining up for these notes like they’d heard there was free stuffing involved. The internals were equally tasty: Indirects grabbed 58.1%, their biggest helping since June and a bit above the six-auction average of 57.9%. Directs scooped up 30.7%, basically sticking to their usual portion of 30.9%. That left Dealers with 11.2%, almost exactly their standard 11.1%—because even in bond auctions, someone has to finish the leftovers.

Overall, it was a surprisingly steady auction—so steady, in fact, you’d think nobody’s noticed the world is currently being run like a group project led by “ educated, yet idiots.” In an era of wars, chaos, and policy choices that look suspiciously like they were brainstormed on a napkin at 2 a.m., the once-mythical “risk-free asset” is starting to feel about as risk-free as deep-fried turkey near an open flame.

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In yet another batch of “freshly outdated” government data delayed by Washington’s favorite circus act—the shutdown—September retail sales eked out a lukewarm 0.2% gain, while consumer sentiment slid to a seven-month low as Americans worried about jobs, prices, and possibly everything in between. Big-ticket spending softened, bargain-hunting surged, and yet retailers somehow keep raising guidance, proving that shoppers may be anxious… but not anxious enough to skip brands they love. With inflation still sticky, policymakers still arguing, and key data still missing, the economy looks like it’s easing from a confident stride into more of an awkward shuffle—powered increasingly by wealthy households, while everyone else tightens the seatbelt and hopes for smoother numbers ahead.

Adjusted for inflation, retail sales slipped 0.1% in September, leaving them essentially unchanged since March 2025 and far below their April 2022 peak. Historically, real retail spending peaks alongside the S&P 500–to–oil ratio — a metric now on the verge of breaking below its seven-year moving average, a signal that has reliably preceded recessions. Equity markets, however, seem perfectly happy to keep whistling past the graveyard.

In a nutshell,retail demand is losing steam, recession indicators are stirring, and yet equity markets march on as if nothing’s cracking beneath their feet.

US producer prices rose a mild 0.3% in September — just enough for the “inflation is dead” crowd to do a victory lap — while Core PPI barely budged at 0.1%, hitting its lowest YoY reading since mid-2024. Energy drove most of the increase, but with oil prices nosediving since then, that bump may vanish faster than a Fed forecast. The real plot twist? Intermediate demand is heating back up, hinting that the inflation ghost might not be done haunting us after all.

As of late September, the spread between Core PPI and CPI has climbed back to its highest level since July 2024 — a dynamic that could provide a tailwind for equity valuations and future returns once the FOMO-driven AI excesses finish unwinding.

In a nutshell, Inflation looks dead on the surface, restless underneath, and ready to hand equities a boost once the AI tourists pack up.

As investors shuffle through airport security on their way to Thanksgiving turkeys, the U.S. Treasury quietly served up its own pre-holiday dish: $70 billion in 5-year notes at a 3.562% yield — the lowest since last September’s rate-cut kickoff. The auction even tailed the WI by 0.5 bps, marking the fifth tail in six tries… proving that while travelers may dread long lines, bond buyers seem perfectly happy standing in one.

The bid-to-cover came in at 2.41 — technically better than last month’s 2.38 and the highest since April — though in a metric that usually dances in a 5-bps range, that’s not exactly a showstopper. Behind the scenes, foreign buyers (Indirects) slipped to 61.35% from 66.84%, falling below their recent 64.7% average, while Directs crept up to 27.6% from 23.9%. Dealers were left holding 11.0% of the allocation — more than last month’s 9.3% but still shy of their 10.4% norm. In other words, the auction was a polite dinner party: slightly better behaved than usual, but no fireworks.

In short, it was another “meh” auction, as more investors wake up to the inconvenient truth: under the reign of what one might call “Educated Yet Idiots,” the real danger isn’t in stocks or commodities — it’s in the so-called risk-free assets, which aren’t risk-free anymore.

While Donald Copperfield takes a victory lap as “Peacemaker-in-Chief” for the NATO-made Ukraine fiasco, he’s already teeing up his next trick: picking a fight with Venezuela. Caracas declared itself at war with the U.S., Donald shrugged and promised to skip the paperwork and just take out smugglers, and Washington conveniently labeled Maduro a terrorist. Then came the plot twist — Maduro has heavyweight friends. Xi sent him a birthday greeting that read like a mutual-defense clause, Putin called him a “dear friend,” and China accused the U.S. of violating the UN Charter. Just like that, Venezuela morphed from a regional sideshow into the latest arena for great-power puppeteering.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3334007/xi-jinping-pledges-support-nicolas-maduro-and-criticises-us-actions-venezuela

China remains one of Venezuela’s top trading partners, and Beijing has no intention of letting the West treat regime change like a one-click export. Condemning U.S. aggression is one thing; offering boots, bullets, or budget lines is another — and China hasn’t crossed that line yet. Still, by signalling its readiness to push back, China is helping set the stage for a wider strategic game: stretch Western militaries thin across multiple fronts, sap their bandwidth, and force them into a long, expensive chess match they can’t easily win.

https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/exports-by-country