The Macro Butler sprang out of bed at an hour so early even the coffee was still asleep, just to join BFM 89.9 and unpack the latest market rollercoaster—plus a few hot takes on Thailand and Indonesia—while the West continues its grand experiment of letting “Educated Yet Idiots” steer the ship straight toward banana-republic waters.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-bfm-899-malaysia-19112025

As investors proudly rediscover how to Make Volatility Great Again, the U.S. Treasury managed to unload $16B of 20-year bonds at a lofty 4.706%—a neat 20 bps jump from last month and the highest since August. The auction even tailed the WI at 4.704% by a microscopic 0.2 bps… because apparently, even bond auctions are now feeling nostalgic for the chaos of June.

Everything else about the auction was a beauty pageant for bad numbers: the bid-to-cover ratio collapsed from 2.73 to a sad 2.41 — the weakest since November 2024 and miles below the six-auction average of 2.66.
The internals didn’t bother to look any better. Indirect bidders retreated to 59.5% from 63.6%, their lowest showing since February 2024 and well under the recent 65.3% average. Meanwhile, Directs charged in like overeager rescuers, taking down 29.1% — up from 26.3% and the highest on record — because apparently someone had to stop the thing from looking like a failed garage sale.

Dealers were left holding 11.4% — their heaviest bag since August — proving once again that when everyone else steps back, the dealers get volunteered to catch the falling knife.

Overall, it was a downright miserable auction — and yet, in today’s growing risk-off climate, more investors are finally waking up to the uncomfortable truth: the so-called “risk-free” asset has become the riskiest thing in the room, courtesy of the Educated Yet Idiots who’ve managed to banana-republic-ify the United States.

In the spirit of Master Kong—who surely would have sighed at today’s court of monetary mandarins—the latest FOMC minutes read like a polite family quarrel disguised as policy. After October’s rate cut with its odd couple of one hawk and one dove dissenting, no one should feign surprise that “several” sages deem another December cut appropriate, while “many” insist it is absolutely not. The labour market is said to be protected by moving toward neutrality… yet the hawks warn that easing too quickly risks inviting the inflation dragon back into the house. Nearly all agree it is time to stop shrinking the balance sheet, lest liquidity spirits grow restless, and many advocate stuffing the treasury chest with more bills for flexibility and fewer sleepless nights. The scholars also whisper about overstretched asset valuations and the possibility of a disorderly AI bubble deflation.

And, in a final twist worthy of Confucian satire, tariff-driven inflation—once the monster under every policymaker’s bed—has apparently become a minor footnote, allowing the Court of the Fed to turn its anxious gaze back toward the kingdom’s employment woes.

In a nutshell, the FOMC minutes reveal a Confucian family feud: hawks, doves, and worried sages bickering over cuts, inflation, and bubbles—while quietly admitting tariffs weren’t the monster after all.

As the mandarins in Washington finally let the “hard” data trickle out after their long bureaucratic slumber, private “soft” surveys offer a yin-yang picture of the U.S. economy. Manufacturing PMI dipped to a four-month low at 51.9, while Services PMI rose to a four-month high at 55.0, lifting the composite to 54.8—firmly in expansion territory. Business confidence leapt the most in five years, helped by hopes of rate cuts and the end of the shutdown, yet inflationary pressures stirred again as higher import duties nudged input prices to multi-year highs. Services passed those costs along, hiring stayed modest, and new orders hit this year’s peak thanks to services alone. Meanwhile, manufacturers—ever the patient sages—face swelling inventories and shrinking backlogs, a warning that unless demand awakens, the path ahead for factory output may look more “empty rice bowl” than “bountiful harvest.”

In a nutshell, America’s latest data brew shows services feasting, factories fretting, and inflation stirring again—proof that even in economics, the yin and yang never take a day off.

In the great Confucian theater of American economics, November’s consumer sentiment plunged again, as if reminding us that “he who stares too long at prices rising will soon feel his wallet shrinking.” Despite inflation fears softening, households—especially those without stock portfolios—grow gloomier about finances, jobs, and big-ticket purchases. Even with the government reopened, the sages of Michigan report a nation where the wealthy keep spending while everyone else tightens their belts, proving once more that headline statistics often hide the cracks beneath the porcelain.

In a nutshell, November consumer sentiment in the U.S. sank to near-record lows, as non-stockholders fret over finances and jobs while the wealthy keep spending.

The Macro Butler wishes you a Happy Thanksgiving—and safe passage through the annual migration ritual known as “airport chaos season.”

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-week-that-it-was-as-of-november

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https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-week-that-it-was-as-of-november-7da

As America’s turkeys nervously pre-heat themselves for destiny, the U.S. government went ahead and served a financial appetizer: a $69 billion auction of 2-year notes. The yield came out at 3.489%—slightly lower than October’s 3.504% and the lowest since August 2022—landing perfectly “on the screws,” just like that one relative who insists they carve the turkey exactly right.

The bid-to-cover came in at 2.684—up from 2.590 and the highest since August—suggesting investors were lining up for these notes like they’d heard there was free stuffing involved. The internals were equally tasty: Indirects grabbed 58.1%, their biggest helping since June and a bit above the six-auction average of 57.9%. Directs scooped up 30.7%, basically sticking to their usual portion of 30.9%. That left Dealers with 11.2%, almost exactly their standard 11.1%—because even in bond auctions, someone has to finish the leftovers.

Overall, it was a surprisingly steady auction—so steady, in fact, you’d think nobody’s noticed the world is currently being run like a group project led by “ educated, yet idiots.” In an era of wars, chaos, and policy choices that look suspiciously like they were brainstormed on a napkin at 2 a.m., the once-mythical “risk-free asset” is starting to feel about as risk-free as deep-fried turkey near an open flame.

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In yet another batch of “freshly outdated” government data delayed by Washington’s favorite circus act—the shutdown—September retail sales eked out a lukewarm 0.2% gain, while consumer sentiment slid to a seven-month low as Americans worried about jobs, prices, and possibly everything in between. Big-ticket spending softened, bargain-hunting surged, and yet retailers somehow keep raising guidance, proving that shoppers may be anxious… but not anxious enough to skip brands they love. With inflation still sticky, policymakers still arguing, and key data still missing, the economy looks like it’s easing from a confident stride into more of an awkward shuffle—powered increasingly by wealthy households, while everyone else tightens the seatbelt and hopes for smoother numbers ahead.

Adjusted for inflation, retail sales slipped 0.1% in September, leaving them essentially unchanged since March 2025 and far below their April 2022 peak. Historically, real retail spending peaks alongside the S&P 500–to–oil ratio — a metric now on the verge of breaking below its seven-year moving average, a signal that has reliably preceded recessions. Equity markets, however, seem perfectly happy to keep whistling past the graveyard.