The Macro Butler pulled up another armchair for a lively exchange with Piggo’s Trading Desk , noting — in true Confucian fashion — that while China steadies itself after deflation and prepares to lead the next decade, the West, guided by its legion of ‘Educated Yet Idiots’, continues to scatter wealth like a careless court official with holes in his purse.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-piggos-trading-desk-ad1

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 When capital wanders from its rightful path, even ChatGPT can turn the world into chaos. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/ai-boom-or-bust-prosperity-through

Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/ai-boom-or-bust-prosperity-through-995

The Macro Butler spent afternoon tea with Hongbin Jeong of Money FM 89.3 Singapore—spilling Earl Grey and market secrets—while breaking down the investment boom powering America’s new electric grid and how investors can plug in for profit.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-money-fm-893-singapore-70b

The Western “Educated Yet Idiots” are so desperate to plug the holes in their overspent budgets that they always want to tax anything that glitters.

Case in point: Italy’s brilliant new idea—a one-off levy forcing households to declare off-the-books gold, hoping to squeeze out over €2 billion. Pay 12.5% to “certify” your bullion, heirloom jewelry, or old coins by June 2026, or risk a 26% tax later. Unsurprisingly, people have been avoiding the official market like the plague, pushing sales underground. With an estimated 4,500–5,000 tons of privately held gold—worth about €500 billion—the government clearly knows exactly where the treasure is… and wants a piece of it.

https://www.reuters.com/business/italy-weighs-one-off-levy-bring-private-gold-holdings-into-formal-economy-2025-11-14/

In a nutshell, Italy, desperate for revenue, now wants to tax citizens’ hidden gold—because when governments go broke, even grandma’s jewelry becomes fair game.

The Macro Butler pulled into Dubai for a lunchtime pit stop on Asharq Bloomberg TV, serving up thoughts on oil, gold, and the markets’ latest “risk-off” slingshot.

Despite the noise, both oil and gold are revving much higher for anyone bold enough to buy the dip.

So buckle up, top off the tank, and enjoy the ride.

The interview has been translated into Arabic.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-asharq-bloomberg-tv-b17

The Macro Butler sprang out of bed at an hour so early even the coffee was still asleep, just to join BFM 89.9 and unpack the latest market rollercoaster—plus a few hot takes on Thailand and Indonesia—while the West continues its grand experiment of letting “Educated Yet Idiots” steer the ship straight toward banana-republic waters.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-bfm-899-malaysia-19112025

As investors proudly rediscover how to Make Volatility Great Again, the U.S. Treasury managed to unload $16B of 20-year bonds at a lofty 4.706%—a neat 20 bps jump from last month and the highest since August. The auction even tailed the WI at 4.704% by a microscopic 0.2 bps… because apparently, even bond auctions are now feeling nostalgic for the chaos of June.

Everything else about the auction was a beauty pageant for bad numbers: the bid-to-cover ratio collapsed from 2.73 to a sad 2.41 — the weakest since November 2024 and miles below the six-auction average of 2.66.
The internals didn’t bother to look any better. Indirect bidders retreated to 59.5% from 63.6%, their lowest showing since February 2024 and well under the recent 65.3% average. Meanwhile, Directs charged in like overeager rescuers, taking down 29.1% — up from 26.3% and the highest on record — because apparently someone had to stop the thing from looking like a failed garage sale.

Dealers were left holding 11.4% — their heaviest bag since August — proving once again that when everyone else steps back, the dealers get volunteered to catch the falling knife.

Overall, it was a downright miserable auction — and yet, in today’s growing risk-off climate, more investors are finally waking up to the uncomfortable truth: the so-called “risk-free” asset has become the riskiest thing in the room, courtesy of the Educated Yet Idiots who’ve managed to banana-republic-ify the United States.

In the spirit of Master Kong—who surely would have sighed at today’s court of monetary mandarins—the latest FOMC minutes read like a polite family quarrel disguised as policy. After October’s rate cut with its odd couple of one hawk and one dove dissenting, no one should feign surprise that “several” sages deem another December cut appropriate, while “many” insist it is absolutely not. The labour market is said to be protected by moving toward neutrality… yet the hawks warn that easing too quickly risks inviting the inflation dragon back into the house. Nearly all agree it is time to stop shrinking the balance sheet, lest liquidity spirits grow restless, and many advocate stuffing the treasury chest with more bills for flexibility and fewer sleepless nights. The scholars also whisper about overstretched asset valuations and the possibility of a disorderly AI bubble deflation.

And, in a final twist worthy of Confucian satire, tariff-driven inflation—once the monster under every policymaker’s bed—has apparently become a minor footnote, allowing the Court of the Fed to turn its anxious gaze back toward the kingdom’s employment woes.

In a nutshell, the FOMC minutes reveal a Confucian family feud: hawks, doves, and worried sages bickering over cuts, inflation, and bubbles—while quietly admitting tariffs weren’t the monster after all.

As the mandarins in Washington finally let the “hard” data trickle out after their long bureaucratic slumber, private “soft” surveys offer a yin-yang picture of the U.S. economy. Manufacturing PMI dipped to a four-month low at 51.9, while Services PMI rose to a four-month high at 55.0, lifting the composite to 54.8—firmly in expansion territory. Business confidence leapt the most in five years, helped by hopes of rate cuts and the end of the shutdown, yet inflationary pressures stirred again as higher import duties nudged input prices to multi-year highs. Services passed those costs along, hiring stayed modest, and new orders hit this year’s peak thanks to services alone. Meanwhile, manufacturers—ever the patient sages—face swelling inventories and shrinking backlogs, a warning that unless demand awakens, the path ahead for factory output may look more “empty rice bowl” than “bountiful harvest.”

In a nutshell, America’s latest data brew shows services feasting, factories fretting, and inflation stirring again—proof that even in economics, the yin and yang never take a day off.

In the great Confucian theater of American economics, November’s consumer sentiment plunged again, as if reminding us that “he who stares too long at prices rising will soon feel his wallet shrinking.” Despite inflation fears softening, households—especially those without stock portfolios—grow gloomier about finances, jobs, and big-ticket purchases. Even with the government reopened, the sages of Michigan report a nation where the wealthy keep spending while everyone else tightens their belts, proving once more that headline statistics often hide the cracks beneath the porcelain.

In a nutshell, November consumer sentiment in the U.S. sank to near-record lows, as non-stockholders fret over finances and jobs while the wealthy keep spending.

The Macro Butler wishes you a Happy Thanksgiving—and safe passage through the annual migration ritual known as “airport chaos season.”

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-week-that-it-was-as-of-november