US Services activity perked up in August — thank you, data centres and the great sport of tariff front-running. The ISM Services PMI jumped to 52.0 from 50.1, with new orders at their fastest pace since October. Of course, backlogs shrank, prices stayed painfully high, and employment kept contracting. Translation: business looks “better,” but mostly because firms are rushing to beat tariffs while quietly admitting they can’t keep eating the costs. Call it growth with a side of inflation, served lukewarm or an inevitable stagflation ahead.

In a nutshell, August’s services rebound looks less like real growth and more like tariff panic—demand up, costs rising, jobs shrinking: stagflation dressed as recovery.

Under the iron-fisted wisdom of “Gavin Grewsom,” California hasn’t just been perfecting its transformation into a budget-friendly Socialist theme park—it also earned gold medals in ‘plandemic’ paranoia. So really, who’s shocked that on September 1, 2025, the California Department of Public Hysteria— meaning, Public Health—decided to warn everyone to wear masks again.

https://www.breitbart.com/health/2025/09/03/masks-coronavirus-wave-hits-newsoms-california/

California clung to mask mandates like a lifeline, while its governor happily posed maskless at fancy dinners. Two years of “do as I say, not as I do,” and now, while mandates aren’t back, the old “we’re just encouraging it” routine has returned—the same slippery slope that started it all. Spin Doctor Fauci’s greatest hit? “We’re not talking about mandates… but you really should.” And we all know how that song ended.
He later admitted that mask mandates were completely ineffective after being interrogated by Rand Paul:


https://x.com/RandPaul/status/1698372490639327556?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1698372490639327556%7Ctwgr%5E1ae27963369ec6639a211bc93cf22ba26ef1f73c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.armstrongeconomics.com%2Finternational-news%2Fdisease%2Fcalifornia-may-reimplement-mask-mandates%2F

During the ‘plandemic’, obedience to government morphed into a kind of state-sponsored religion, with masks and vaccine cards serving as badges of holiness. Free debate was smothered, censorship ruled, and only one “truth” was allowed—the one that kept us in line. Now that the COVID psyop has been exposed for what it was—a global obedience test—California lawmakers, panicked at losing their grip, are dusting off the same tired playbook. Their answer? Slap the mask back on, call it “public health,” and hope no one notices it’s just control theatre in disguise.

The “resilient” U.S. labour market that officials keep bragging about is looking more like a house of cards in a wind tunnel. August managed just 22K new jobs, while June was quietly revised into negative territory — the first red print since 2020 — and July wasn’t much better after downward revisions. Only teachers, bartenders, and amusement parks kept hiring, while business services and government trimmed payrolls.

Unemployment rose to 4.3% in August, the highest since October 2021, while the participation rate held steady at 62.3% and average weekly hours worked slipped to 34.2. The combination points to a softening labour market. With joblessness now above its two-year average since September 2023, recession risks are clearly mounting.

In a nutshell, the “resilient” U.S. labor market just cracked: weak hiring, negative revisions, rising unemployment, and shrinking hours now signal recession risks are no longer theory but reality.

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 Borrow, Bomb, Repeat—history’s oldest government playbook, and Europe is about to prove chaos still makes the perfect distraction. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/borrow-bomb-repeat

Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/borrow-bomb-repeat-podcast

In this chapter of The Macro Butler Chronicles, our hero teams up with Arigato Investor to uncover the ultimate treasure of the war cycle decade: Gold!

As Bonds, and Cash stumble like fallen warriors, #Gold shines as the undefeated champion—proving once again why every investor needs it in their arsenal.



https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-arigato-investor-03092025

As France’s ‘Bay-Roue De Secours’ clings to life support, Japan’s own lame duck finally chose political seppuku—after presiding over electoral wipeouts, fiscal fog, and a trade deal with Donald Copperfield that now hangs in the balance. Investors can look forward to weeks of hand-wringing while waiting to see which new face will recycle the same old script.

Japan’s long-dated bonds are wobbling like a Jenga tower, and with the LDP unable to scrape together a clear majority, investors are basically sitting on their hands until someone new grabs the wheel—meaning the yen, bonds, and equities are in for a bumpy ride.

You don’t need a PhD in Japanese financial sudoku to see it: political chaos is putting fresh pressure on the yen and long bonds, while Japan races France and the UK in the grim contest of who defaults first.

After the collapse of Japan’s lame-duck Ishiba, the next featherless fowl lining up for the chopping block is France’s very own “Bay-Roue De Secours,” a lame duck from Day One. And what’s next on the French menu? Another lame duck prime minister, a farcical election, or “Macro-Leon” finally dropping the democratic pretense altogether by invoking Article 16 to crown himself quasi-emperor—steering France straight into a bitter IMF bailout and a nice, sizzling hot war with Russia.

France’s finances are circling the drain—deficit at 5.8% of GDP, Brussels scolding like a schoolmaster, and Paris responding with the usual patchwork of cuts and taxes (defense, of course, spared). The parties will bicker over pensions and taxing the rich, but without real austerity, debt rockets toward 125% of GDP by 2030. In short: déjà vu, fiscal chaos dressed up as governance.

In any case, the political circus is back—same clowns, new costumes.

As expected, France’s lame duck “Bay-Roue De Secours” finally got tossed out by parliament, clearing the stage for yet another round of political theatre—while the country’s eternal communist trade unions, professional strikers since time immemorial, gear up once again to defend their privileges and shove France deeper into the debt abyss.

Whoever gets the honor of being France’s next lame-duck Prime Minister will inherit a fiscal dumpster fire: the euro area’s fattest deficit, debt piling up at €5,000 a second, and a debt-servicing bill projected to hit €75 billion next year. Bon courage.

France isn’t just flirting with a downgrade from its tame, politically housebroken rating agencies—it’s also inching toward the ultimate humiliation: an IMF bailout. And don’t think Paris will be the only one lining up with a tin cup; the UK and even Germany are staggering down the same debt-ridden path under the steady guidance of Malthusian, authoritarian Keynesians.