In a nutshell, the jobs market just tripped over a massive downward revision, shrinking participation, and payroll gains that are vanishing on arrival.

As the self-anointed Peacemaker-in-Chief flirts with nuclear escalation, the economic battlefield at home continues to bleed. The ISM Manufacturing Index dropped another point to 48 in July, marking five consecutive months in contraction territory—an unmistakable signal of industrial retreat. Factory employment, now at its weakest in over five years, is being strategically downsized as manufacturers brace for prolonged economic warfare triggered by tariffs and waning demand. According to ISM, companies are entrenched in defensive cost control, holding fire on new hires even as production marginally ticks up. Of the five components of the index, only production remained in expansion, while orders, employment, and export demand all stayed in the red.

A tactical reprieve came from falling input costs, with the “prices paid” measure registering its sharpest drop since September. But make no mistake—beneath the surface, the industrial complex is under siege, and the latest salvo of tariffs may only deepen the contraction.

In a nutshell, as a fresh tariff offensive was just launched, America’s manufacturing front retreats deeper into contraction, with factories cutting troops and bracing for economic crossfire.

U.S. consumer sentiment ticked up to a five-month high in July—because apparently a stock market rally is all it takes to convince people things are fine. Inflation expectations dropped, with consumers now hoping prices will only rise 3.4% over the next decade, the lowest dose of inflation since January. Yet, in classic whiplash fashion, those same consumers also expect business conditions to stay lousy and unemployment to climb.

In short: “We feel good... but not really.”

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

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In the theatre of recurring cycles, while the foot soldiers of Keynesian delusion and the loyal rank of state-sponsored propaganda cling to their false idols—propped up by the plutocracy that installed them—those who understand the cadence of history won’t be surprised. The Self Appointed ‘Peace Maker in Chief’, formerly dubbed the ‘Bully in Chief’, has now completed his transformation into the ‘Warmonger in Chief’. Right on cue, August 1st, 2025, was chosen as the launch date for escalating tensions to nuclear brinkmanship with the ever-reliable Russian bogeyman. This wasn’t diplomacy—it was a declaration.

The Manipulator-in-Chief, blinded by imperial arrogance, continues to wield the U.S. dollar like a blunt weapon, failing to grasp that his economic terrorism fuels the rise of BRICS and the de-dollarization of the Global South. In true ‘Trumperialist’ fashion, he threatens 100% tariffs on nations purchasing Russian oil—an empty gesture of economic warfare targeting China, India, and Türkiye. These nations, driven by energy security and sovereign interest, will keep ignoring his ultimatums, as Moscow’s exports remain resilient. Despite sanctions, Russia has rerouted fossil fuel flows toward loyal partners: China, India, and Türkiye. Meanwhile, the fragmented Western bloc—rattled by inflation and energy shortages of its own making—continues to import Russian energy through loopholes and hypocrisy. Senator Graham’s crude threat—"We’re going to crush your economy"—only echoes the desperation of a fading empire. Stalin would have called it what it is: bluff without backbone.

As a matter of fact, the 'Regime Changer In Chief' s crude threat—"We’re going to crush your economy"—only echoes the desperation of a fading empire. Stalin would have called it what it is: bluff without backbone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSzOQ9g2fhM

Anyone with battle scars from investing in so-called “Emerging Markets” knows the drill: puffed-up strongmen running the show, convinced they’re economic visionaries while barely grasping Econ 101—or history beyond last week’s speech. Ironically, as the U.S. slides from a crumbling plutocracy into a fully ripened banana republic, it seems determined to outshine its emerging cousins. The man in the Oval Office, true to form, now claims omniscience and declares any inconvenient data as fake news—because, naturally, reality must align with the sacred scrolls of his economic gospel.

Remember, there’s no such thing as coincidence in DC. A lousy jobs report—conveniently paired with sharply downward revisions—isn’t a shock, it’s a tool. It’s the same old playbook: manipulate market expectations to steer the Fed. Everyone in the know understands that no matter who’s warming the Oval Office chair, the Non-Farm Payrolls are just politicized fiction—an Excel-generated fairy tale dressed up as data to serve the narrative of the day.

While most have conveniently moved on from the Epstein saga and the “Zee Russian plot”—both useful electioneering distractions—the Disruptor In Chief has managed to further erode public and investor trust in American institutions. It's a textbook move from the banana republic playbook: undermine credibility, stir confusion, and let inflation fester in the chaos.

But expecting historical or economic awareness from the current White House occupant is asking too much—after all, his reading list rarely strays beyond his own Truth Social posts.

In the grand theater of managed narratives, it is becoming increasingly evident that yet another alphabet agency of the United States has played its silent hand in escalating the century-old Thailand-Cambodia border tensions into full-scale war.

Simultaneously, the same unseen hand props up the Kachin Independence Army in Myanmar, a convenient proxy against a government with longstanding ties to Beijing. All the while, the Ministry of Truth ensures the official story remains unchallenged—strategic chaos rebranded as the defense of democracy.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/update-armed-resistance-myanmars-kachin-state

In true Orwellian fashion, the U.S. empire’s support for Myanmar’s rebellion has little to do with “democracy” and everything to do with rare earths. Beneath the slogans, it's a resource war—part of the AI-fueled tech race. Control over Myanmar’s Kachin State, rich in critical minerals, now trumps idealistic rhetoric.

https://tass.com/politics/1991007

For decades, the U.S. Empire has waged a quiet war of regime changes—some successful, others botched—all driven by the same playbook: seize natural resources under the guise of democracy and protect imperial interests. But the mask is slipping. The empire, bloated with debt and ruled by a fading plutocracy, is cracking.

Whether branded Trumperialism or anything else, the outcome is the same: imperial overreach on borrowed time. Meanwhile, the mercantilist Global South, tired of Western diktats and Malthusian technocrats, is rising.

You can now also listen to a summary of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

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If anyone still clings to the fantasy of Germany as the disciplined fiscal hawk and engine of the Eurozone, the 2026 budget should clear things up: €520.5 billion in core spending, with a whopping €174.3 billion in new debt—half of it sneakily labeled as “special funds” for infrastructure and climate virtue-signaling. Welcome to the first act of German economic decadence.

Germany’s budget math now resembles a Kafkaesque riddle: Finance Minister Klingbeil swears by Maastricht compliance, yet 2026 includes 3.3% of GDP in new borrowing—conveniently renamed “special funds.” Between 2025 and 2029, €850 billion in new debt will be the glue holding Berlin’s shaky coalition together.

As Germany trades its fiscal halo for Southern Europe’s debt profile, the welfare state quietly implodes—€47 billion health insurance deficit, rising pension shortfalls, collapsing long-term care. Growth? Nonexistent. Reform? Delayed indefinitely. Germany isn’t entering a crisis—it’s already drowning in one while it keeps financing the dancer on high heels in power in Kiev.

The 2026 budget is Merz’s white flag in Germany’s fiscal war. Once the Eurozone’s stern accountant, Berlin now finances its collapsing welfare state with smoke, mirrors, and mounting IOUs. Social deficits are exploding, and supplementary budgets are becoming routine. Cheap credit has replaced real consensus, pushing Germany toward the same debt-fueled paralysis that made reform a French pastime. The age of austerity is over—long live the era of creative insolvency.