After 28 years navigating macro chaos — from geopolitical shocks to the Covid era — and more than two years building The Macro Butler independently through inflation, war, and monetary disorder…

It’s time.

Time to bring this community into one room.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-world-economic-summit

The University of Michigan has delivered the first real consumer sentiment reading since Operation Epic F**k-Up commenced, and the results are, shockingly, not a ringing endorsement of holy war as economic policy. The March sentiment index fell to 53.3 — a three-month low — with two-thirds of responses collected after the Iran war began, meaning Americans had sufficient time to notice that gasoline had risen $1 a gallon and that their grocery bill was not only not improving but will soon be much higher. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 3.8%, the biggest monthly increase since April 2025, while 47% of respondents spontaneously volunteered that prices are actively eroding their personal finances — a figure that suggests the Federal Reserve's inflation narrative has not yet achieved broad public acceptance.

Most entertainingly, it is middle- and higher-income consumers — the stock-owning, discretionary-spending backbone of the American economy — who recorded the largest sentiment drops, buffeted simultaneously by surging gasoline prices and volatile financial markets.

The consumer, in other words, is not buying the victory lap. They are, however, buying considerably less of everything else.