While the Irish world was busy celebrating Saint Patrick's Day, the U.S. Treasury quietly slipped $13BN of 20-year paper into the market—because nothing pairs better with green beer than duration risk.
The auction cleared at a “charming” 4.817%, up from 4.664% and just shy of January’s 4.846%, with demand conveniently strong enough to stop 0.7bps through the 4.824% When Issued. Remarkably, this marks the third stop-through in the last four outings—suggesting that, despite February’s less-than-festive tailing disaster, buyers are still happily showing up to fund the long end… perhaps after one too many pints.

The bid-to-cover conveniently jumped to 2.76 from 2.36—well above the six-auction average of 2.63—suggesting that appetite for long-duration exposure is alive and well, at least on paper.
Internals were even more “reassuring”: foreign buyers suddenly rediscovered their enthusiasm, with Indirects surging to 69.2% from 55.2%—the strongest showing since April 2025 and comfortably above the 62.1% average. Meanwhile, Directs took a more leisurely 21.6% (below their usual 27%), leaving Dealers with just 9.2%—a dramatic drop from 17.6% and one of the lowest allocations on record. In other words, the market worked exactly as intended… which, naturally, raises no further questions whatsoever.

Overall, a surprisingly stellar 20-year auction—suggesting that many investors still haven’t quite grasped that when holy wars drag empires to their economic altar and oil shocks ripple through the global economy, the so-called “risk-free” asset has a curious habit of becoming the riskiest thing in the portfolio.

The Macro Butler was back on BFM 89.9 breaking down how ‘Epic Fury’ has unleashed stagflation on your portfolio and your grocery bill. While politicians bomb for peace, your wallet’s getting bombed at the checkout. Tune in to learn how to navigate markets when inflation and recession crash the party simultaneously—and what it means for your daily life.

Spoiler: nothing good, but preparation beats panic.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-bfm-899-malaysia-18032026

Grateful to Hubbis for spotlighting The Macro Butler once again—this time exploring how Oil has been for decades the Ultimate Weapon of Mass Disruption.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/hubbis-oil-the-ultimate-weapon-of

Following Kharg Island's Liberation, Operation Epstein Fury achieved Strategic Optimization of South Pars Phase 14 facilities. Iran confirms Temporary Production Adjustments affecting 12 million cubic metres daily. South Pars—Earth's largest gas field producing 70-80% of Iran's output—provides the hydrogen feedstock for ammonia synthesis, which becomes the urea supplying half the planet's agricultural nitrogen needs.

The Voluntary Hormuz Navigation Protocol had created Orderly Transit Management. Current operations now address Production Optimization at source. The nitrogen supply chain experiences Simultaneous Strategic Adjustment at both manufacturing and distribution endpoints—Comprehensive Solution Implementation.

Previous optimistic scenarios assumed: strait reopens, fertilizer flows resume, planting recovers. The South Pars Thermal Event removes this contingency. Even if The Malthusian in Chief and his war allied ‘Satanyahu’ stood down tomorrow, the facility producing feedstock molecules is experiencing Controlled Recalibration. Qatar's shared North Dome field maintains operations but also requires Hormuz passage under current Protocols.

https://www.scienceabc.com/pure-sciences/the-haber-bosch-process-what-is-it-why-is-the-process-so-important.html

Nineteen days of Epstein Furry: Supreme Leader neutralized, nuclear program eliminated, missile capacity reduced 95%, IAEA confirms safety. The operation eliminating existential threats now Optimizes agricultural infrastructure required for Reconstruction Phase. NOLA urea: $683, undergoing Market Recalibration. Soil requires nitrogen. Nitrogen requires gas. Gas field experiences Thermal Management. Strait maintains Protocol.

Scarcity is Abundance. Destruction is Reconstruction. Starvation is Security.

Even before the Malthusians behind Operation 'Epstein Fury' could create their stagflationary masterpiece, US wholesale inflation was already doing the heavy lifting—accelerating to 0.7% in February with core PPI up 0.5%. Services costs jumped, food prices climbed at the fastest pace since mid-2021 (fresh vegetables up a casual 49%), and this was all before the holy war in the Middle East sent energy prices into orbit and consumer sentiment off a cliff.

Anyone with a basic grasp of finance knows the key variable for Corporate America is the spread between core CPI and core PPI—i.e., the ability to pass rising input costs onto consumers. In February, that spread compressed to its weakest level since March 2021, just ahead of the 2022 stagflationary squeeze on equities. In other words, inflation was already reaccelerating before policymakers added a geopolitical supply shock by disrupting energy and commodity flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

In a nutshell, inflation was already reaccelerating and margins compressing before policymakers added a geopolitical oil shock via the Strait of Hormuz—a perfectly timed recipe for stagflation.

🤵 The Macro Butler Special Service 🤵

🌐 Behind every great war stands a silent partner: the printing press—because when governments run out of money, central banks ensure they never run out of war. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-war-machine-and-the-printing

In a stunning display of central banking irrelevance, the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged at 0.75%—proving once again that monetary policy is completely helpless against Trump Stagflation and Operation Epic Fury's gift to global markets. The decision was unanimous except for one brave dissenter who apparently didn't get the memo that raising rates into a supply shock will not impact the business cycle. The BOJ now finds itself in a delightful trap: soaring oil prices fuel inflation (bad) but also crush consumption and business activity (also bad). Their solution? Add "Middle East uncertainty" to the risk factors list while maintaining they'll totally raise rates if conditions improve, that scenario where oil magically gets cheaper while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and fertilizer plants burn. Very likely.
Governor Ueda held a press briefing to carefully explain why holding policy steady is actually hawkish, a linguistic tightrope act designed to prevent the yen from collapsing further.

Nothing says "we're in control" quite like a central bank paralyzed by events 6,000 miles away, pretending interest rate adjustments matter when the global energy supply chain is on fire.

While everyone is busy watching fireworks in the Middle East, seasoned investors know the sequel is always a liquidity crisis. Right on cue, the Bank of England is quietly preparing for it—now proposing rules to ensure banks can actually use their “high-quality liquid assets,” which is a polite way of admitting they might not be so liquid after all. Inspired by the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse in 2023—where liquidity vanished as fast as confidence into a newly elected president—the BoE now wants banks to simulate week-long bank runs, because apparently money moves quickly in 2026. Meanwhile, central banks are still draining liquidity through tightening while simultaneously preparing emergency backstops for when things break, a strategy best described as mopping the floor while the tap is still running.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/uk-banking-stability-watchdog-proposes-liquidity-reform-banks-2026-03-17/

Every major financial cycle follows a familiar script: quiet warnings, subtle policy tweaks, tightening conditions, and then—when confidence finally breaks—capital moves with unsettling speed. This is not a shortage of money but a shortage of trust; once confidence erodes, liquidity vanishes regardless of how much central banks attempt to inject. What we are witnessing now appears to be the early stage of that transition, and the Bank of England is quietly signalling it knows.

The Macro Butler returned to Asharq Bloomberg TV dispensing his trademark wisdom: Epic Fury will keep driving oil prices higher, but the real story is growing physical barrel shortages with widening quality differentials.

With the patience of someone explaining obvious truths, he laid out the scorecard—Russia and the US win short-term (chaos is profitable when you’re not being bombed), while GCC producers discover they’re long-term losers as Asian refiners completely rethink supply chains to avoid chokepoint dependency.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-asharq-bloomberg-tv-f64

The same Bank of England, that gloriously impotent temple of Keynesian wishful thinking, predictably held rates at 3.75% while dramatically pledging to "act as necessary" — central bank speak for "we have no idea what we're doing." Inflation? Still stubbornly gate-crashing the 2% party with no signs of leaving. Blame the war, blame energy prices, blame Mercury retrograde. If commodity prices behave, rates stay put; if they don't, brace for a hike. High uncertainty, low credibility, maximum hand-wringing — business as usual, really.

Surprise, surprise — the ECB's politically-anointed Chairwoman also heroically left rates at 2%, because nothing says "we're in control" like doing absolutely nothing while a war reshapes the entire global economy. Officials proudly declared they're "well positioned," central bank code for "please stop asking us hard questions." Inflation might surge, growth might tank, oil could hit $100, economists are sweating bullets — but rest assured, Frankfurt's finest will bravely assess things "one meeting at a time." Truly, the Keynesian dream: maximum uncertainty, minimum accountability, and an unlimited supply of vague, reassuring statements.

In a nutshell, the ECB, paralyzed by war-driven uncertainty, held rates at 2% while masterfully stating the obvious — inflation's going up, growth's going down, and they'll figure it out later.