In a development that the Ministry of Financial Stability would classify as a routine balance sheet disclosure rather than a canary in a very crowded coalmine, Deutsche Bank has helpfully flagged a €26 billion exposure to private credit in its annual report — an asset class that is simultaneously grappling with fund redemptions, deteriorating underwriting standards, AI disruption of its software borrowers, and the slow-motion train wreck of Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater, and BlackRock gating investors with the coordinated enthusiasm of an industry discovering its structural problems simultaneously.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/deutsche-bank-highlights-private-credit-risks-portfolio-grows-2026-03-12/

The German lender, whose €15.8 billion technology sector exposure has grown from €11.7 billion in a single year, assured investors it faces no "significant risks" from non-bank financial institutions — while in the same breath identifying private credit as a "key risk," warning of "indirect risks through interconnected portfolios," and quietly participating in a group of lenders unable to offload $1.2 billion of software acquisition loans in a hung deal that suggests the exit door is considerably narrower than the entrance.

As already everyone knows when the Blue Owl roosts, the bond market begins to quote “No Bid.”

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/when-the-blue-owl-roosts-before-the

The Macro Butler is back at The Piggo Trading Desk — and this time, the conversation goes far beyond oil.

From the inevitable shortages sweeping everything from crude to food to petrochemical-derived products, to a bond market sending yields higher while the King Dollar tightens its grip on every other fiat currency on the planet — this is the macro briefing that connects every dot Wall Street’s cheerleaders are professionally incentivized to leave unconnected. Interesting times demand sharp minds.

Pull up a chair. 🎙

👉 Watch now. Because what comes next is already in the data — if you know where to look.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-piggos-trading-desk-3e0

In a rare moment of good news from a bond market that has been delivering the financial equivalent of passive-aggressive notes for months, the Treasury auctioned $22 billion in 30-year bonds that actually stopped through the When Issued by 0.7 basis points — the fourth consecutive stop through in a row — suggesting that somebody, somewhere, is still willing to lend the United States government money for three decades at 4.871%, the highest yield since last July, in exchange for the privilege of holding the world's safest asset through a holy war, a closed oil chokepoint, and a stagflationary spiral that the Fed has no credible tools to address.

The internals told a more nuanced story. The bid-to-cover slipped to 2.452 from February's 2.662, landing precisely on the recent average — the bond market's equivalent of a shrug. Indirects disappointed at 63.4%, down from 69.9% in February and below the six-auction average of 66.6%, suggesting that foreign buyers — those indispensable custodians of American fiscal excess — are becoming marginally less enthusiastic about financing a government simultaneously bombing for peace. Directs stepped up to 27.2%, above their 23.0% average, partially filling the gap, while Dealers were left holding 9.36% — above last month's record low of 5.88% but still below the recent average of 10.4%. In summary: a solid stop-through headline decorating internals that are quietly, persistently, and entirely unsurprisingly softening — exactly what one would expect the credibility of the empire is being stress-tested in real time on the battlefield.

Overall, a surprisingly solid auction — which says less about the enduring appeal of 30-year Treasuries and more about the staggering number of investors who have yet to process that in the Trump Tremendous Stagflation, the once risk-free asset has quietly become the riskiest thing in the portfolio. The British insurers at Lloyd's, meanwhile, continue their contribution to the chaos by refusing war risk coverage through the Strait of Hormuz — ensuring that the 30-year Treasury buyer and the stranded oil tanker captain share the same essential experience: both are carrying considerably more risk than their paperwork acknowledges, and neither will discover the full extent of it until it is too late to do anything about it.

In a development that the Ministry of Digital Security would classify as a routine procurement update, the Department of War — having initiated its AI dispute with Anthropic, whose conscience proved insufficiently flexible for the Pentagon's requirements — has replaced it with OpenAI, whose conscience proved considerably more accommodating. The transition was swift, efficient, and entirely in keeping with the Ministry's mandate, until OpenAI's Caitlin Kalinowski resigned, warning that "surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got" — a statement that the Ministry of Thoughtful Deliberation has noted and filed accordingly.

https://x.com/kalinowski007/status/2030320074121478618

As the Ministry of Population Security would remind us: this is not surveillance of Americans — it is the protection of Americans, administered at scale, in real time, without judicial oversight, by a computer system that, unlike its human predecessors, never sleeps, never doubts, and never resigns.

In a diplomatic pirouette so elegant it deserves its own press release, Treasury Secretary Uncle Scrooge Bessent — who just days ago was describing Russia as a threat to American global influence — has announced the temporary removal of sanctions on Russian oil, thereby crowning Tsar Vladimir the unlikely hero of Operation Epic Fury's unintended consequences. The administration that bombed Iran to strangle its oil revenues, closed the Strait of Hormuz to Western shipping, and assured markets that crude supplies were "very well supplied" has now quietly designated Russia as the oil supplier of last resort for the Eastern hemisphere — while reserving that honour for the United States in the Western hemisphere — a geopolitical division of energy labour that Tsar Vladimir, sitting behind his maxed-out but suddenly indispensable export infrastructure, could not have engineered more favourably had he planned it himself.

https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/935191/download?inline

In summary: Washington launched Operation Epic Fury to weaken its adversaries, and has spent the subsequent two weeks issuing sanctions waivers to Russia, a foreign policy outcome so contrary to its stated objectives that even the Ministry of Strategic Victory is struggling to find the appropriate banner for the USS Abraham Lincoln moment.

As stale as an avocado left baking on a beach towel, investors finally discovered that US consumer spending barely budged in January (+0.1%, when economists generously predicted 0% growth), while Q4 economic growth got quietly downgraded from a respectable 1.4% to a pathetic 0.7% annualized rate. Turns out those initial estimates were a bit... optimistic, with downward revisions hitting consumer, business, and government spending plus exports—basically everything except disappointment, which exceeded expectations. Meanwhile, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge (core PCE) jumped 0.4% month-over-month and clocked in at 3.1% year-over-year, because why let a slowing economy get in the way of rising prices? Welcome to stagflation's warm-up act, folks.

In a nutshell, US consumer spending flatlined, Q4 growth got slashed in half to 0.7%, and inflation's still running at 3.1%—it's like stagflation ordered an Uber and it just pulled up to your house.

Jeffrey’s War…🍿

Another inspiring episode of geopolitics where other people fight, taxpayers pay...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypJQNoYTV-s

US consumer sentiment dropped to a three-month low in March, hitting 55.5 as Americans collectively realized that adding a war with Iran to their existing problems wasn't exactly a morale booster. The University of Michigan survey caught the perfect before-and-after snapshot: sentiment was actually improving before the airstrikes, then completely tanked during the nine days after—because nothing kills optimism quite like watching gas prices spike while your wallet's already on life support. Consumers now expect 3.4% inflation over the next year (unchanged, because why would anything get better?) and gas price expectations hit their highest level since 2022. Translation: Americans were already miserable about high costs and a fragile job market, and now they get to experience all of that plus $5 gas.

In a nutshell, US consumer sentiment was actually improving until the Iran airstrikes happened—then it face-planted to a three-month low as Americans realized adding a war to their existing inflation nightmare means paying $5 for gas and everything else more expensive sooner rather than later.

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 Oil doesn’t just fuel the global economy—it moves borders, rattles markets, and turns a single supply scare into a global shockwave. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/oil-the-ultimate-weapon-of-mass-disruption

In what is supposed to be a measured escalation of the Epic Fury peace initiative, the Warmonger-in-Chief announced Friday evening—thoughtfully timed aftermarket hours to preserve stability—that US Central Command had delivered Freedom to Kharg Island, which processes 90% of Iran's energy exports. The Supreme Leader emphasized the operation's remarkable restraint: The Protective Strike targeted only military assets, leaving energy infrastructure supposedly untouched—for now. Iran had previously declared such action a red line requiring Proportional Response against regional energy facilities, though the Western Malthusians clarified such warnings constitute Aggression while our Superior Firepower represents Peace.

The Iranian News Service confirmed receipt of fifteen Correctional Strikes targeting military infrastructure—air defence systems, naval facilities, airport control, and helicopter assets associated with the State Oil Company. The Commander's conditional offer—to preserve energy infrastructure provided commercial passage remains unobstructed—demonstrates Strategic Restraint. Regional partners and global markets have been duly notified of this Generous Framework. Tehran's insistence on imposing Consequences for the Defensive Coalition's actions suggests the Strait's temporary closure triggered by the City of London’s insurers will continue. This is Progress toward Resolution. All parties understand the terms.

As a reminder, five miles long and situated 15 to 20 miles off the mainland-Iranian coast, Kharg Island is essential to Iran's export of petroleum. Facilities there have continued to operate throughout the war, with at least 10 tankers hauling off nearly 19 million barrels since the US-Israeli surprise attack on Feb 28. Iran has, however, sought to add a small measure of export-facility diversification, by reopening energy exports at the Jask terminal, which is southeast of the Straight of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman.


https://mapcarta.com/12606110/Map