The Macro Butler
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The Macro Butler aims to deliver concise yet comprehensive macroeconomic insights that impact global and regional markets. We analyze key indicators, trends to provide actionable & timely investment recommendations to all kind of investors.
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In a development that would have surprised absolutely nobody who has read Orwell, the United Nations — that venerable unelected institution born from the ashes of the League of Nations, which was itself born from the Treaty of Versailles, which was itself the root cause of the war it was supposed to prevent — has announced its intention to coordinate "global action" against disinformation and hate speech online. The stated objective is, naturally, to create "safer digital spaces," because nothing says safety quite like an unelected international body determining which information citizens are permitted to encounter.

https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2025848365011898368/vid/avc1/1920x1080/gFscU2e2e_oZwSDK.mp4?tag=21
The mechanism, outlined in the Global Digital Compact, calls for coordinated oversight across borders, platform accountability, and shared global standards for content moderation — which is a sophisticated way of saying that a select few will decide what is true, what is harmful, and what must be removed, on behalf of the eight billion people who never voted for them.
The historical irony is rich: every era has had its misinformation, its propaganda, its competing narratives — and in every era, the information later proven most dangerous was not the dissent that was suppressed, but the official narrative that was enforced. As the Ministry of Truth would remind us: this is not censorship — it is coordination. Not control — it is safety. And the unelected institution that defines truth on behalf of humanity is, of course, doing so entirely for your benefit.
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In his stirring address to the assembled faithful, the self-appointed Peace Maker In Chief — chairman of the Board of Peace and tireless guardian of the American Empire— took a moment during his State of the (Dis)union to celebrate the magnificent rebuilding of the Ministry of War, an institution dedicated, as always, to the pursuit of Peace through Strength. The announcement that an additional $1.0 trillion would be required to further strengthen this peace was delivered not as a confession but as a triumph.
As the Ministry of Truth would remind us: spending a trillion dollars on weapons is not militarism — it is diplomacy in advance. War is Peace. Strength is Harmony. And the Peace Maker In Chief has never been more committed to peace than when he is building the tools to wage it.
In a development that will surprise anyone who believes that sitting atop the world's largest oil reserves is a foolproof fiscal strategy, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has just posted its widest quarterly budget deficit in five years — a modest $25.3 billion shortfall in Q4 2025, bringing the full-year deficit to a rather less modest $73.73 billion, more than double the prior year and approximately 5.5% of GDP. The arithmetic is straightforward and unforgiving: Saudi Arabia needs oil at $97 per barrel to balance its budget — rising to $114 when the sovereign wealth fund's domestic spending is included — while Brent crude is currently trading around $70. The gap is being papered over with international bond issuance and, more entertainingly, by pressing the kingdom's wealthiest families to inject capital into domestic ventures, because nothing signals fiscal confidence quite like asking your billionaires to chip in.
Meanwhile, Crown Prince MbS's Vision 2030 vanity project is quietly being dismantled piece by piece: NEOM's The Line has been "radically scaled back," the cube-shaped Mukaab has been suspended, and the $1.5 trillion dream is being "downscaled and redesigned" — which is technocratic language for "we cannot afford any of this." Saudi officials project the deficit will narrow to 3.3% of GDP this year; Goldman Sachs and Bank of America politely suggest five to six percent.

As Confucius might observe: "The kingdom that builds castles in the sand should first ensure the price of oil covers the architect's fee."
While the nation was busy processing the theatrical spectacle of the State of Disunion, the US Treasury quietly slipped another $70 billion in 5-year paper past a distracted public — because the bills don't stop just because The Manipulator In Chief t is on television. The auction cleared at a high yield of 3.615%, down from 3.823% a month ago and the lowest since November, which sounds encouraging until one notices the 0.7 basis point tail over the When Issued — the biggest since last July.
Another subpar auction — and the trend is becoming impossible to ignore. A surprisingly large tail, a sliding bid-to-cover, and Dealers left holding more than their fair share tell a familiar story: as institutional trust collapses and the empire's fiscal arithmetic becomes increasingly difficult to defend, the asset that once defined safety is quietly being repriced as anything but. The risk-free asset, it turns out, is only as risk-free as the institution behind it — and that institution is running a $1.8 trillion deficit while its own citizens trust it at a rate of 17%.
The internals told a mixed story. The bid-to-cover dropped to 2.32 — the lowest since July 2025 — suggesting that the audience for US government paper continues to thin. Foreign buyers provided a rare bright spot, with Indirects taking down 62.5%, the highest since October, confirming that international demand remains the most reliable guest at the Treasury's increasingly awkward dinner party. Directs, however, disappointed at 24.7% — the lowest since October — leaving Dealers holding 12.8%, above both last month's 10.8% and the recent average of 10.1%.
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In a moment of magnificent accidental transparency, Damon Wilson — head of the National Endowment for Democracy, that tireless champion of freedom, liberty, and absolutely-not-Alphabet Agency-funded regime change — was interrupted mid-sentence during a congressional hearing after casually revealing that his organisation had smuggled approximately 200 Starlink terminals into Iran to fuel the recent unrest. "I'm going to interrupt you," said the ranking congresswoman, apparently realising in real time that covert operations work best when they remain covert. Wilson, undeterred, went on to take credit for the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom movement, Bolivia's right-wing election victory, and documenting a death toll in Iran that somehow multiplied from 3,000 confirmed by Iranian authorities to a suspiciously round 30,000 — a figure originating, entirely coincidentally, from a Alphabet Agency-linked monarchist opposition activist.
As the Ministry of Democracy would remind us: smuggling Starlinks into foreign countries to destabilise governments is not interference — it is the promotion of fundamental freedoms. Regime change is Liberation. Covert funding is Transparency. And the congresswoman who said "we'd better not talk about it" was simply practising the highest form of democratic accountability
In a press conference that had all the theatrical gravitas of a FOX News prime-time special, America's Secretary of War — a man whose previous career highlights included hosting a talk show — stepped before the cameras to announce that the United States is not merely committed to spreading freedom on Earth, but has now generously extended its democratizing ambitions to outer space. The vehicle for this cosmic liberation? A $25 billion down payment Golden Dome space shield, because a nation with a $36 trillion debt and crumbling infrastructure has clearly identified the final frontier as its most pressing infrastructure priority. Citizens may rest assured: while potholes multiply, hospitals charge by the bandage, and bridges contemplate early retirement, America's commitment to dominating the electromagnetic spectrum from low Earth orbit remains fully funded, fully operational, and fully bipartisan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BT9mISBME8
As the Ministry of Infinite War would remind us: if you thought freedom was expensive on Earth, wait until you see the invoice for freedom in space.
In a development that would have made William Tell spin in his grave, Switzerland — that beacon of centuries-old neutrality, home to numbered bank accounts and discreet geopolitical fence-sitting — has enthusiastically adopted the EU's 19th sanctions package against Russia, because apparently eighteen rounds of sanctions that demonstrably failed to alter Russian behaviour were simply not enough. The latest measures include a complete ban on Russian LNG imports, restrictions on ruble-pegged cryptocurrencies, expanded export bans on metals, and — in a touch of particular Swiss irony — restrictions on tourism-related services to a country whose oligarchs have been quietly banking in Geneva for decades. Switzerland's foreign ministry, maintaining the deadpan composure for which the Swiss are justly famous, insists the country remains "formally neutral" while simultaneously adopting the foreign policy positions of Brussels with the punctuality of a Swiss train.

https://tass.com/world/2091785
Switzerland — once the world's most reliably neutral safe haven — has quietly traded centuries of strategic ambiguity for a front-row seat in Brussels' sanctions circus. The alpine fortress of financial discretion has spoken: neutrality, it turns out, has an expiry date.
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Media is too big
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As the world's geopolitical strategists debated who would fire the first missile in the Middle East — a question apparently requiring more deliberation than expected — the US Treasury quietly slipped $44 billion in 7-year notes past a distracted planet. The result was, by recent standards, almost encouraging: a high yield of 3.790%, down sharply from 4.018% last month and the lowest since November, pricing precisely on the screws with the When Issued — no tail, no drama.