So, it turns out the “driverless future” doesn’t eliminate jobs—it just relocates them to lower-cost time zones. Rather than AI heroically replacing human drivers, certain roles are quietly outsourced to cheaper labor markets, doing wonders for margins if not for domestic employment.

Welcome to the next phase of innovation, where artificial intelligence and global arbitrage work hand in hand to protect valuations—because when capital meets labor, efficiency usually wins.

The Macro Butler joined Umar Tasleem on Türkiye’s Diplomacy (A-News) for a lively exchange—unpacking the ripple effects of Japan’s February 8 election, America’s growing appetite for cheap and abundant energy, and why the Super Bowl increasingly resembles a modern edition of ‘Panem et Circenses’.

After all, nothing reassures a nation about its economic future quite like fireworks, halftime shows, and commercials—especially when the grid still needs enough coal to power the AI revolution behind the scenes.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-turkiyes-diplomacy-c02

As the world endures yet another AI-induced mood swing, the U.S. Treasury calmly wrapped up the week by selling $25 billion in 30-year bonds to what appeared to be bottomless demand. The issue cleared at a 4.750% high yield, down from 4.825% in January and the lowest since November—apparently investors decided that three decades is a perfectly reasonable commitment in uncertain times. Even more impressively, it stopped through the 4.771% when-issued level by 2.1bps, the strongest stop since “Liberation Day” in April 2025—proving that while algorithms panic, bond buyers occasionally keep their composure.

Demand was more than respectable: the bid-to-cover jumped to 2.662 from 2.418, the strongest showing since January 2018—apparently 30-year paper is back in fashion.
One small detail, of course: the Fed’s SOMA account quietly tendered for and accepted a sizable $7.1 billion, adding to the previous day’s $11 billion haul in the 10-year. When the long end calls, it seems the usual investors—and a very familiar one—are happy to pick up the phone.

The internals were equally impressive: Indirect bidders absorbed 69.94% of the issue, up from 66.77% and the strongest share since November. Directs stepped up as well, taking 24.18%, leaving Dealers with just 5.88%—down sharply from 11.95% last month and the lowest allocation on record. For once, the usual backstop was barely needed, as real demand did the heavy lifting.

Overall, it was a blockbuster 30-year auction—apparently plenty of investors are still delighted to lock in three decades of exposure in a world flirting with stagflation and creative currency diplomacy. The “risk-free” asset continues to enjoy enthusiastic demand, even as the definition of risk quietly evolves. After all, nothing says confidence like committing until 2056 and hoping the fine print on monetary history remains favorable.

The Macro Butler spoke with Christian White of Marbella Media on why 2026 may mark a delicate turning point, where inflation and slowing growth test the balance of economies.

As Confucius reminds us, when the winds shift, the prudent adjust their sails. AI’s rising hunger for energy may quietly steer capital toward commodities, while precious metals endure as steady guardians of value. Amid geopolitical tensions, shifting alliances, currency uncertainty, and widening domestic divisions, the lesson is simple: in times of disorder, discipline and foresight preserve both wealth and stability.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-christian-white-09022026

It’s always a delight for The Macro Butler to lean back with Piggo’s Trading Desk and gently iron the wrinkles out of headline economics. In this episode, we explore why the U.S. dollar remains the “least dirty shirt” in the global fiat laundry basket—and how it can simultaneously appreciate against other currencies while quietly losing ground to commodities.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-piggos-trading-desk-f13

The first CPI print of the new year showed up fashionably late—but at least it brought good news. Inflation came in a touch softer than what Wall Street had pre-ordered: a breezy +0.2% month-over-month and a well-behaved +2.4% year-over-year. That’s down from last month’s spicier +2.7% and just enough to make politicians bragging that inflation is ‘under their control’. Underneath the polite headline number, the real party tricks emerged. Food inflation finally decided to go on a diet, posting its weakest annual gain since November. Energy, never one to miss drama, flipped back into deflation mode—because apparently oil prices also made New Year’s resolutions. Meanwhile, core goods quietly cooled off to their tamest increase since July, as if they too got the memo: “Let’s not scare the Fed just yet.”

Core CPI in January strolled in exactly on cue at +0.3% month-over-month—no surprises, no drama, just politely matching the forecast like a well-rehearsed understudy. Year-over-year, it clocked in at +2.5%, right on consensus and just a smidge cooler than December’s +2.6%. Economists everywhere nodded approvingly, grateful for at least one thing behaving as expected. But the real plot twist? Core services—the undisputed heavyweight champion of inflation, representing a chunky 76% of the basket—finally decided to loosen its belt. It cooled to +2.23% year-over-year, its chilliest reading since October 2021. When the biggest guest at the inflation buffet starts pushing the plate away, you know the party might actually be winding down… or at least switching from tequila to herbal tea.

Cue the standing ovation from the “Inflation Is Officially Over” fan club: Owners’ Equivalent Rent—the CPI’s resident zombie—slowed from +3.4% in December to +3.3%, chalking up its “coolest” reading since October 2021. Yes, it’s technically decelerating. No, it’s not exactly sprinting toward zero. More like a slightly less enthusiastic shuffle through the macro graveyard. Proof, once again, that even the undead can slow their pace—without ever quite agreeing to lie back down.

And just when you thought the victory parade couldn’t get any louder, along comes SuperCore CPI—core services ex-housing, otherwise known as the Fed’s favorite selfie filter. It decelerated from +2.74% YoY to +2.67%. Translation? Not exactly champagne-popping territory. More like stepping outside for a quick smoke break before heading back into the inflation grind. But hey, inflation is clearly vanquished—just squint a little, conveniently sidestep rent, goods, food, and most observable reality, and top up that daily prescription of premium-grade hopium. Victory tastes best when selectively measured.

In a nutshell, January’s CPI showed inflation taking a polite stroll instead of a sprint—slightly softer than expected, with core services easing, but don’t pop the champagne yet: math (and reality) still points to 2.4%–3.4% by mid-2026.

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 Gold doesn’t chase wealth—it preserves it. Its true value reaches far beyond the numbers in your wallet. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-true-value-of-gold-beyond-price

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https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-true-value-of-gold-beyond-price-bed

On the day celebrating love, high in the Bavarian Alps—where history once demonstrated how “civilizational renewal” can go spectacularly wrong—Viceroy Rubio assured Europe that Washington was not abandoning the transatlantic alliance of the North Atlantic Terror Organization alias NATO, merely upgrading it to Alliance 2.0: borders reinforced, factories relit, armies funded, and climate heresies gently corrected. The message was equal parts Valentine and warning—America prefers to march together, but is fully prepared to march alone in the name of sovereignty, industrial resurrection, and strategic clarity. The post–Cold War dream of borderless harmony was reclassified as a “dangerous delusion,” free trade became a cautionary tale, and migration a test of civilizational resolve.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOjBJ89aeXA

In the official script, this was not a retreat from globalism but a restoration of destiny: a reinvigorated West, proudly self-reliant, tightly bordered, energetically fossil-fuelled, and united—of course—by the shared understanding that history has not ended, it has simply been reassigned for corrective editing.

After Viceroy Rubio spoke of Western resolve, China’s chief diplomat responded in the measured cadence of Confucian thought. He reminded his audience that true strength lies not in superiority but in harmony without uniformity. Nations, he suggested, should honour sovereignty, cultivate multilateral cooperation, and seek concord over contest. Global challenges, like turbulent waters, require steady hands rowing in unison rather than vessels colliding in pride. Presenting China as a patient steward of dialogue and inclusive governance—particularly in partnership with Europe—he cautioned against the temptations of militarism and zero-sum rivalry in the Asia-Pacific.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WuEn06svrPE

In the Confucian view, lasting peace is not secured through dominance, but through balance, restraint, and the shared guardianship of a common future.

And to conclude a full day of speeches highlighting war rather than security from impeccably educated European strategists explaining why peace requires just one more “temporary” emergency and a slightly larger line of credit, the high-heeled headliner from Kyiv took the stage. His message was simple: fewer poetic assurances, more actual weapons; fewer summit selfies, more security guarantees carved in stone. NATO, we were reminded, must grow stronger, Europe must spend closer to 5% of GDP on defence, and “preventive measures” should ideally occur before tanks cross borders—an innovative concept in hindsight diplomacy. The analogy was clear: if the roof is leaking, don’t just rearrange the furniture—fix the roof, preferably with reinforced concrete and a drone squadron. Intent matters, anchorage is missing, drones are the new cavalry, and GDP is apparently the moral yardstick of commitment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqenCQA3sAc