🤵 The Macro Butler Special Service 🤵

🌐 Policy blunders, global flare-ups, and fading trust in government are fuelling the runaway train to Trump Stagflation—where prices stick and chaos comes at a cost. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-price-of-chaos

Savvy investors know that every bubble ends with a signal—trouble is, the sirens only blare after the wreckage. Enter Wall Street’s smooth-talking fortune teller, Jamie Dimon, who just dropped pristine quarterly results and warned that private credit is Wall Street’s "hottest trend"… and a recipe for disaster. Naturally, JPMorgan is diving in headfirst with $50 billion on the line—because nothing says “caution” like betting big on riskier companies right before the music stops.

Private credit—just like every other fancy form of credit—is ultimately just a contract based on a promise to repay debt, often taken out to fund speculative ventures or fading real estate plays. And when the music stops, those promises tend to be worthless.

As we saw with mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the alphabet soup of exotic loans that blew up the global financial system in 2007, lenders to flashy borrowers may soon discover they’ve been dancing on a trapdoor.

The Macro Butler joined A-News Türkiye’s Diplomacy with Umar Tasleem to unpack the latest tariff-fueled rupture in US–Europe trade ties.

As Washington doubles down on sanctions against Russia, the conversation turned to how BRICS, ASEAN, and the broader Global South are forging a bold new mercantilist order—one that will leave the old Western playbook in the dust.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-a-news-turkiyes-diplomacy-eaa

After a CPI that hinted at a “tarrifying goods time’ for reflationistas, June’s PPI decided to take a nap—flat on the month, thanks to travel services suddenly going on a summer sale while goods prices also partied. Meanwhile, May’s numbers were sneakily revised higher, and year-over-year PPI landed at 2.3%, just under the forecast of 2.5%—because who doesn’t love a surprise twist? Core PPI also stayed flat, with May’s revision doing the heavy lifting, jumping from +3.0% to +3.2%. So much for disinflation with dignity.

For equity investors, what really matters is Corporate America's ability to pass rising input costs onto customers—boosting margins and ultimately lifting earnings. While Donald Copperfield may be busy bragging on social media that the stock market is hitting new highs thanks to his ‘Big Beautiful Bill,’ the real story lies in the data: for the first time since last September, the spread between core CPI and core PPI turned positive in June. This suggests that, at least for now, Corporate America isn’t swallowing the tariffs—consumers are. And their wallets are starting to feel it.

In a nutshell. June's flat PPI and rising CPI reveal that Corporate America is dodging the tariff tab—passing the pain to consumers while keeping earnings inflation-proof.

While the ‘Manipulator in Chief’ flexes on social media about the “booming” U.S. economy under his second coming, the data tells a slightly less rosy tale—unless your idea of success includes a bankruptcy bonanza. In the first half of this Jubilee year, bankruptcy filings have outpaced the 2020 lockdown chaos and are flirting with levels not seen since the post-GFC hangover of 2010. Turns out you can’t meme your way out of insolvency.

Like everything in life, U.S. bankruptcy filings follow a cycle—and Q1 is typically peak season. That’s when companies open their year-end books, see the grim reality, and head straight for Chapter 11. While a quieter second half might be expected, the Jubilee year is shaping up to break 2024’s record and may even go toe-to-toe with the post-crisis high watermark of 2010.

Turns out accounting statements can be deadlier than interest rates.

The “Anti-Vax in Chief,” waving the MAHA flag and preaching health and freedom, just unveiled a wellness plan straight out of Orwell’s playbook: mandatory wearables. Under the noble guise of empowerment, it’s really just 24/7 surveillance—because nothing says liberty like the government tracking your heartbeat.

In today’s surveillance-industrial complex, your heartbeat is just another data point on someone else’s balance sheet. Tech giants rake in profits from gadgets and app subscriptions, insurers get to refine their risk models, and bureaucrats enjoy a treasure trove of behavioral intel—all under the comforting banner of “wellness.”

But this isn’t innovation—it’s just the latest chapter in the old book of control. Every so-called breakthrough, from GPS to smart speakers, has arrived gift-wrapped as progress, only to quietly tighten the screws of surveillance. What starts as voluntary soon becomes unavoidable—until you’re no longer wearing a device, the device is wearing you.

And with the system now able to flag “mental health risks” from your stress levels or sleep patterns, we’re one firmware update away from your smartwatch becoming your probation officer. Welcome to the future: optimized, monetized, and sanitized for state approval.

Today, surveillance doesn’t come with sirens—it comes with step counters and heart rate monitors. Don’t worry, it’s “for your health.” Your body is now your ID, your credit score, your job application. Decline to share? You must be a threat.

But hey, who needs autonomy when you’ve got convenience? Just remember: the wellness tracker you bought to optimize your life may soon be used to optimize your compliance.

As anyone with a shred of critical thinking can see, the so-called green energy revolution may well be one of the greatest Ponzi schemes ever unleashed upon humanity.

Far from delivering prosperity, the rise in renewable energy correlates ominously with economic stagnation. The evidence is damning: the higher the share of renewables in electricity production, the more energy consumption growth grinds to a halt—crippled by soaring costs and economic inefficiencies.

Once the renewable share crosses the critical 30% threshold—where it can no longer be masked by idle backup capacity—energy consumption doesn’t just slow. It collapses. This isn’t transition. It’s regression masquerading as progress.

In a move that surprises no one paying attention, the world’s most aggressively greenwashed government—the Dutch—has quietly admitted defeat. Citing spiraling costs and waning industry appetite, they’re scaling back their once-trumpeted offshore wind ambitions. The original 50GW target by 2040? Now deemed “unrealistic.” The new plan: a humbler 30 to 40GW.

Even the climate minister conceded the obvious: “Costs have risen, while industrial electrification lags,” leaving demand for “sustainable” electricity in doubt. Translation? The fantasy has hit a wall of economic reality.

https://www.bairdmaritime.com/offshore/renewables/offshore-wind/rising-costs-lower-demand-prompt-netherlands-to-scale-back-2040-offshore-wind-goals

Prosperity comes from giving people access to abundant, affordable energy—so they can produce, innovate, and raise living standards. Forcing costly, inefficient, and misleadingly labeled "green energy" does the opposite: it spreads poverty and empowers bloated bureaucracies, not people.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/abundant-and-cheap-energy-time-to

US Retail sales bounced back in June with a 0.6% gain (after May’s sorry -0.9% faceplant), thanks mostly to autos getting back in gear.

Strip out cars and gas, and sales still crept up 0.6%, while the control group (fancy speak for “everything else”) nudged up 0.5%, beating their usual snoozy pace. Even food and drink spots perked up, though they’re still not quite living the high life. Overall, June’s spending looks like a modest 0.4% rise—better than May’s dip, but don’t pop the champagne yet; second-quarter growth might still underperform expectations.

Retail sales may look strong on the surface, but that’s just nominal growth ignoring inflation. Adjusted for prices, June barely nudged above last February and still lags behind the April 2022 peak. Historically, real retail sales peaks often align with S&P 500-to-Oil ratio highs, which then fall below their 7-year average—signaling rising recession risks. In other words, trouble’s brewing, even if Wall Street is still in denial.

In a nutshell, US retail sales bounced back in June, but beneath the nominal gains lurks inflation-adjusted weakness signaling rising recession risks—even if Wall Street isn’t ready to admit it.