As the U.S. transitions from today’s inflationary boom to tomorrow’s inevitable bust, expect the Dow to outpace the Nasdaq—and energy producers to outshine the energy-hungry tech darlings.

The question is: is your portfolio positioned for this shift, or are you just another YOLO sheep headed for the slaughterhouse when the tide turns?

The Government Pension Investment Fund (#GPIF)—you know, the largest pension fund on Earth with a modest ¥253 trillion ($1.5 trillion) under management—kicked off the Jubilee Year with a bang… by vaporizing $61.1 billion in just one quarter. That’s a cheerful -3.4%, marking its worst showing since Q3 2024.

Overseas stocks down 6%, bonds down 2%, Japanese stocks dropped 3.5%, and even domestic bonds slid 2.2%. The cherry on top? A 4.6% drop in the dollar vs. the yen—because apparently, bad news needed a currency twist too.

#Japan’s debt-to-#GDP ratio sits at a towering 236%—the highest among major economies—nearly double that of the U.S. and almost triple #China’s. The Bank of Japan now owns over half the JGB market, turning it into a rigged game where yields are fake, risk is mispriced, and institutions are forced to play along. Pension funds, banks, and insurers aren’t buying JGBs for return—they’re just captives of a system that gives them no alternative.

Japan’s pension dilemma is a slow-moving train wreck: a shrinking workforce, ballooning elderly population, and a pension system forced to pretend JGBs are still worth holding.

The GPIF, once the poster child for economic stability, has tried escaping the black hole of negative rates by shifting abroad—but it’s still stuck in Japan’s doomed fiscal orbit. With JGBs yielding next to nothing and no natural buyers left, the BOJ will be the last one holding the bag.

Whatever fake news media tells you, the sovereign debt crisis will start in Japan—and then will go viral across Europe.

In true Ministry-of-Truth fashion, Germany’s Green ideologues have come full circle: after spending €500 billion to make energy unaffordable, they now demand ice cream price controls—for the poor, naturally. Twenty years ago, their Energiewende was sold as costing no more than a scoop of ice cream per month. Today, they want that very scoop subsidized, having turned it into a luxury through their own policies. As factories flee, blackouts loom, and insolvencies surge, the same climate cultists double down—vilifying dissent as “far-right,” demanding more central control, and drowning Europe in regulation, recession, and rhetoric. All while insisting they’re saving the planet. Orwell would be proud.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/07/far-left-german-greens-demand-ice-cream-price/

The self-proclaimed “Peacemaker-in-Chief,” who famously bombed a sovereign nation a month ago — as a heartfelt thank-you to his generous friends in Tel Aviv—now believes he’s due a Nobel Peace Prize. Because, of course, nothing says peace like missiles and proxy wars. And just in case anyone forgot who’s really pulling the strings, he’s doubling down by threatening Russia again—yes, the country already buried under the most severe sanctions in human history, now with a shiny new 100% tariff badge.

For someone who campaigned on his deep loathing of "forever wars," he sure seems eager to drag the world straight into World War III—now even cheering on the Regime-Changer-in-Chief himself.

And when Donald Copperfield finally drops the act and shows his real face, the world might realize that the whole MAGA spectacle was just another illusion: a flashy trick to get back into the White House while padding the pockets of family and loyal cronies.

Bravo—Make America Grift Again.

Tariffs aren’t inflationary, says the “Treasurer in Chief.” True—it’s not inflation, it’s just a massive tax someone pays. Like Conagra and Helen of Troy, now choking on 7% cost inflation and a cool $200 million tariff hit.

But who cares if margins collapse and hiring freezes, as long as elites can chant “Making America Great Again” into the void. Meanwhile, Washington is quietly raising corporate taxes through the back door—because nothing screams pro-business like a tariff bomb.

Blockchain—the tech hailed as “freedom” by crypto bros—is actually a dream come true for control freaks in power, offering the perfect surveillance tool dressed up as innovation. Digital IDs? Not about convenience—just a Trojan horse for total financial control via CBDCs.

And let’s be real: once governments get their hands on that power, they’re never giving it back.

In the UK, under the watchful eye of a loyal Davos disciple, the government has begun quietly herding citizens toward digital identity systems. Phase one offered the illusion of convenience— “voluntary” digital IDs to access jobs, housing, and age-restricted goods. Phase two? Full government oversight and a shiny trust mark for state-approved surveillance tools. Still just a “pilot,” of course—until they flip the switch later this year and call it progress.

https://www.hunton.com/insights/legal/navigating-change-the-impact-of-the-uks-data-use-and-access-bill-on-businesses

For those who value freedom over digital chains, it’s the Big Beautiful Bullion—not the Cryptonic Bitcoin—that remains the only truly antifragile, offering real independence from the madness of Orwellian governments.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-big-beautiful-bullion

While the so-called "Peacemaker in Chief" was busy plotting the next escalation with his #NATO protégé in the Oval Office, #China quietly dropped a retail bomb: June sales slipped 0.16%—the first decline since April 2024.

Turns out, online “618” deals just pulled demand forward, not upward. Appliances still surged thanks to Beijing’s cash-for-clunkers magic, but the retail party is clearly losing steam. Even noodle shops felt the slump, with catering revenue crawling at just 0.9%. So much for the consumer-led rebound—looks like the dragon’s taking a nap.

On the other hand, industrial output in China surprised on the upside in June, jumping 6.8% year-on-year—well above the 5.6% consensus. But beneath the surface, the investment engine is sputtering: fixed-asset investment growth collapsed to 2.8% in H1 from 3.7% in the Jan–May stretch, with private investment down 0.6% and real estate sinking nearly 13%. Even public spending lost steam. In short, factories are humming, but no one’s writing the checks.

In conclusion, China’s June data shows a tale of two economies: retail’s losing steam, investment’s hitting the brakes, but factories are still dancing—just no one’s buying the tickets.

🤵 The Macro Butler Special Service 🤵

🌐 Policy blunders, global flare-ups, and fading trust in government are fuelling the runaway train to Trump Stagflation—where prices stick and chaos comes at a cost. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-price-of-chaos

Savvy investors know that every bubble ends with a signal—trouble is, the sirens only blare after the wreckage. Enter Wall Street’s smooth-talking fortune teller, Jamie Dimon, who just dropped pristine quarterly results and warned that private credit is Wall Street’s "hottest trend"… and a recipe for disaster. Naturally, JPMorgan is diving in headfirst with $50 billion on the line—because nothing says “caution” like betting big on riskier companies right before the music stops.

Private credit—just like every other fancy form of credit—is ultimately just a contract based on a promise to repay debt, often taken out to fund speculative ventures or fading real estate plays. And when the music stops, those promises tend to be worthless.

As we saw with mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the alphabet soup of exotic loans that blew up the global financial system in 2007, lenders to flashy borrowers may soon discover they’ve been dancing on a trapdoor.

The Macro Butler joined A-News Türkiye’s Diplomacy with Umar Tasleem to unpack the latest tariff-fueled rupture in US–Europe trade ties.

As Washington doubles down on sanctions against Russia, the conversation turned to how BRICS, ASEAN, and the broader Global South are forging a bold new mercantilist order—one that will leave the old Western playbook in the dust.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-a-news-turkiyes-diplomacy-eaa

After a CPI that hinted at a “tarrifying goods time’ for reflationistas, June’s PPI decided to take a nap—flat on the month, thanks to travel services suddenly going on a summer sale while goods prices also partied. Meanwhile, May’s numbers were sneakily revised higher, and year-over-year PPI landed at 2.3%, just under the forecast of 2.5%—because who doesn’t love a surprise twist? Core PPI also stayed flat, with May’s revision doing the heavy lifting, jumping from +3.0% to +3.2%. So much for disinflation with dignity.