Summoned at dawn by BFM 89.9, The Macro Butler offered a few Confucian reminders on the U.S. job market—and on investing: the man who chases the crowd arrives last, usually at the top. FOMO, as the sages would agree, is not a strategy but a reliable method for buying enthusiasm and selling remorse.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-bfm-899-malaysia-09012026

In a rare flash of clarity since reclaiming the Oval Office, Donald Copperfield pulled the U.S. plug on 66 international organizations—climate clubs, policy talk-shops, and assorted globalist echo chambers—declaring them expensive, inefficient, and oddly uninterested in American sovereignty. Funding is cut, participation ends, and the message is simple: fewer conferences, more country.


https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-withdraws-the-united-states-from-international-organizations-that-are-contrary-to-the-interests-of-the-united-states/

The American people asked for self-rule, yet were handed binders from unelected councils who speak many languages but answer to none. In the name of “emergency,” sovereignty is borrowed, never returned, and democracy is told to wait in the hallway.
When many officials govern but no one is accountable, disorder is inevitable. If this path continues, the American Republic will not fall in battle, but drown in paperwork—until necessity, as always, forces renewal.

While the usual data cheerleaders will celebrate a lower unemployment rate, December’s nonfarm payrolls quietly tell a different story: the U.S. job market isn’t expanding—it’s napping. Payrolls rose a modest 50,000, well below expectations (which are traditionally optimistic works of fiction), and prior months were revised lower. Even during the holiday shopping frenzy, retail managed to shed 25,000 jobs, while hiring remained confined to leisure, hospitality, and healthcare—the economic equivalent of comfort food. For all of 2025, job creation limped in at just 584,000, the weakest year outside the Covid era. Layoffs are scarce, but so is ambition.

Unemployment may have graciously dipped to 4.4%, but now sitting comfortably above its two-year average, it’s yet another reminder that this much-celebrated “boom” is starting to wheeze like a late-cycle marathon runner—still upright, but clearly past its victory lap.

In a nutshell, December payrolls confirm that beneath the headline cheer, the U.S. job market isn’t booming at all—it’s a late-cycle economy quietly dozing off ahead of an election year.

U.S. consumer sentiment perked up slightly—apparently buoyed by holiday cheer and fading tariff fears—with the Michigan index inching up to 54, just enough to let economists declare victory. Inflation expectations, however, remain stubbornly festive at 4.2% for the year ahead and even higher over the long run, while worries about jobs and wages refuse to take the hint. Nearly two-thirds of consumers still expect unemployment to rise, especially the well-educated and well-paid, suggesting anxiety trickles down from the top. Spending holds up, confidence limps along just above record lows, and the Fed—having already cut rates three times—now watches patiently as inflation stays above target and optimism remains more seasonal than structural.

In a nutshell, holiday cheer nudged consumer sentiment higher, but with inflation expectations stuck high and job worries spreading, optimism looks more seasonal than structural.

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After unveiling his very own “Presidential QE,” Donald Copperfield—now clearly battling an advanced case of Chronic Interventionist Syndrome—announced his latest magic trick. To celebrate the first anniversary of his return to the Oval Office and apparently inspired by the Bolivarian playbook he once mocked, he has decided to channel his inner Caracas: cue the price controls. Starting January 20, credit-card interest rates will be capped at a saintly 10%, proving once again that when reality gets inconvenient, Copperfield prefers sleight of hand—ideology included.

Known more for confidence than curiosity, the Manipulator-in-Chief might pause before adding yet another layer of price controls to his résumé. History’s quiet but consistent lesson is that price controls never fix problems created by reckless politicians—they simply rebrand them as shortages, distortions, and, eventually, popular misery. And when misery compounds long enough, it tends to end not in policy success but in revolution—those inconvenient, grassroots regime changes driven by public sentiment, which history shows are far more effective than the export-grade regime changes that have been a staple of imperial American policy since World War II.

Putting corporate diplomacy into refreshingly plain English, Exxon’s Darren Woods politely translated the obvious: Venezuela remains “uninvestable,” which in CEO dialect means “we’ve already been robbed twice and aren’t lining up for a third round.” Yes, the oil is abundant, but so are asset seizures, legal uncertainty, and political roulette—small inconveniences investors tend to dislike. Unsurprisingly, Exxon and ConocoPhillips are staying on the sidelines, Chevron is cautiously tiptoeing without opening its wallet, and smaller players are waving around checkbooks measured in millions, not the $100 billion daydream floated by Donald Copperfield. In short, Venezuela has plenty of oil—just not enough rule of law to go with it.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLl2umofu9Y

FOMO is not a strategy - it’s how you buy the top and sell the regret. 📉

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