While Wall Street diligently rehearsed its favorite bedtime story about “vanquished inflation”—right on cue with Donald Copperfield’s mid-term spin—the New York Fed governor quietly let the mask slip, admitting what anyone fluent in ‘CPLie’-speak already knew: the November numbers were pure statistical fiction.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/19/ny-fed-president-williams-says-some-technical-factors-distorted-novembers-cpi-reading-downward.html

Everyone with even a passing acquaintance with finance knows government numbers are about as trustworthy as a politician’s forecast—yet they remain the sacred inputs for monetary policy.

Despite openly admitting the data may be flawed, Williams still voted for a December rate cut, while reassuring us there’s no “urgent need” to keep easing.

In other words, monetary authorities are flying blind, proudly steering an economy they can’t properly measure, juggling a softening labor market against inflation figures they quietly concede might be wrong. The perfect recipe for the upcoming inflationary bust which will be remembered as the ‘Trump Stagflation’

Your trust, engagement, and intellectual curiosity are what make The Macro Butler more than just another macro voice in a world saturated with noise and narratives. Whether you’ve been with us since the early days or joined along the way, your support has allowed us to have candid conversations, challenge consensus thinking, and focus relentlessly on what truly matters: capital preservation, opportunity, and independence.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/to-our-subscribers-clients-and-partnersthank

Listen to The Month That It Was in December 2025 from The Macro Butler.

You can now also listen to this podcast on YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-month-that-it-was-december-2025

The clock is ticking. In just two days, the limited-time discount for The Macro Butler Academy comes to an end. This is your final opportunity to lock in privileged access to a framework designed to help you understand cycles, cut through narratives, and position capital intelligently in an increasingly unstable world.

https://youtu.be/mQKfVTy_wG8

If you want to move beyond headlines, think independently, and build long-term financial resilience, now is the moment to act.

👉 Secure your discounted access before it’s gone:

https://themacrobutler.com/financial-academy/

Markets won’t wait. Neither should you.

🎉 That’s a wrap for the Jubilee Year! 🌍

The Macro Butler had the privilege of hosting incredible conversations with brilliant minds from around the world.

The guest list is far too long to name (and we wouldn’t want to miss anyone!), but a huge thank you to everyone who invited us.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-2025

The Jubilee Year is coming to a close, and so is the discounted access to The Macro Butler Financial Academy. This is your chance to step inside a framework built to decode macro cycles, expose policy distortions, and protect wealth when narratives fail.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/last-call-of-the-jubilee-year-invest

Since the last FOMC, it’s been obvious that even the Fed doesn’t buy the November CP-Lie—yet the minutes politely confirmed what everyone already knew: a deeply divided committee still arguing over whether weak hiring or sticky inflation is the bigger problem. Most officials still expect to cut rates—assuming inflation behaves—while a few prefer to sit on their hands “for some time,” and several who voted for a cut did so with visible discomfort. Translation: consensus by exhaustion, not conviction. The minutes also revealed the usual schizophrenia—cut rates to save jobs, but don’t cut too much or inflation might notice—and quietly acknowledged that reserves are now “ample,” teeing up Treasury purchases if needed.


https://www.scribd.com/document/974131757/FOMC-Minutes-20251210#download&from_embed

In a nutshell, the Fed doesn’t believe its own inflation data, can’t agree on what’s broken, is already preparing more liquidity—and markets are yawning as if this confusion were business as usual.

While everyone else was stockpiling champagne for New Year’s Eve, Tesla did what it does best when Wall Street clocks out: it quietly dropped a sales buzzkill.
In a rare public move, the company posted its own delivery estimates, hinting that Q4 deliveries may disappoint—about 422,850 vehicles, down 15% year-on-year and well below Bloomberg’s still-optimistic 440,907. A festive reminder that even electric dreams can run low on charge when traders are off duty.

Tesla’s sales skidded early in the year as factories were retooled for the redesigned Model Y—conveniently coinciding with Elon Musk’s cameo as a polarizing figure in the Donald Copperfield administration. Deliveries then spiked to a Q3 record as U.S. buyers rushed to front-run the expiry of the $7,500 EV tax credit, a sugar high Tesla tried to extend by rolling out sub-$40,000, stripped-down Model Y and Model 3 variants.
Even so, the company is heading for a second straight annual decline, with deliveries estimated at 1.6 million—down over 8% year-on-year—and its own three-year outlook now trailing Bloomberg consensus.

In a nutshell, Tesla rang in the New Year by quietly warning that its EV party is losing charge—flagging weaker Q4 deliveries, a post-subsidy sugar crash, and a second straight annual sales decline while Wall Street was busy popping champagne.

⏳ Last 24 Hours — Don’t Miss It

https://www.tiktok.com/@the.macro.butler/video/7589942445782174994

The clock is running out. In the final 24 hours, you can still lock in The Macro Butler Financial Academy at its discounted Jubilee Year price. This is your last chance to gain clear, cycle-driven macro insight, disciplined investment frameworks, and independent thinking—before the price resets.

👉 Enroll now before the window closes: https://themacrobutler.com/academy

A new year is never a blank page—it’s another turn in the cycle. History doesn’t move in straight lines; it moves in rhythms, where confidence is tested, institutions are stretched, and the comforting stories begin to crack. These moments have always been where illusion gives way to reality.

The global economy cannot be understood in silos—and neither can The Macro Butler. With readers across the world, this is a truly global conversation, united by a willingness to challenge narratives and focus on cycles, history, and first principles.

The years ahead will test economic, political, and social systems worldwide. Our commitment remains unchanged: to deliver clear, historically grounded analysis so you can navigate what lies ahead with foresight—not fear.

The Macro Butler and his team wish you peace, clarity, and the conviction to think independently as the next cycle unfolds.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/happy-new-year-to-investors-and-thinkers

While the West was still debating when to pop the New Year champagne, The Middle Kingdom December PMIs suddenly sprang back into “expansion,” as if growth could be summoned by calendar alone. A wise Confucius might remind us that a single warm day does not end winter. Beneath the headline surprise, the picture remains uneven: large manufacturers returned to growth, small firms slipped deeper into contraction, and construction activity surged—likely fuelled by a familiar year-end rush of government spending rather than organic demand. The rebound also diverges from weaker high-frequency indicators tied to production, consumption, and exports, casting doubt on the durability and breadth of any recovery. In short, the PMIs speak loudly, but not harmoniously, and their discordant tone suggests that policymakers will once again feel compelled to front-load fiscal and monetary easing after the Lunar New Year—because when balance is absent, stimulus is the default response.

In a nutshell, in the Middle Kingdom, one PMI swallow does not make a recovery—especially when large firms expand, small ones contract, and “growth” smells suspiciously like last-minute government stimulus.

✨ A New Year, Clearer Signals, Sharper Convictions ✨

As we step into the new year, I want to thank every subscriber for your trust, engagement, and independent thinking. In a world dominated by noise, narratives, and financial illusion, your commitment to understanding cycles, risks, and reality truly matters.

https://www.tiktok.com/@the.macro.butler/video/7590317641911373077

If you’ve been considering joining The Macro Butler Financial Academy, this is your final reminder: the discounted New Year price remains available until January 2 (Hong Kong Time). It’s the last chance to start the year equipped with clarity rather than consensus.

New year. New cycle. No excuses.
👉 Join now: https://themacrobutler.com/

Dear Investors,

Please find below the December 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Strategic Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-strategic-portfolio-7a0

Dear Investors,

Please find below the December 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler IG Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-ig-portfolio-december-4b1

Dear Investors,

Please find below the December 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Long/Short Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-longshort-portfolio-48b