Overall, the outcome was once again a "surprisingly good auction," proving conclusively that most investors are still operating under a profound delusion: they simply have not grasped that in a world governed by the utterly predictable idiocy of the 'Educated Yet Idiots,' the supposed 'risk-free asset' is no more free of risk than a politician is free of ambition.

After a two-month data "hiatus," the BLS finally dropped its crucial JOLTS job report, and—surprise! —it was unexpectedly strong! Not for October, mind you, but for the previously unreported September data, which conveniently soared to a whopping 7.658 million openings (the highest since May!). This massive, delayed surge conveniently exceeded every single estimate from those savvy Bloomberg economists. Meanwhile, just to keep things interesting, the layoffs hit a 2023 high, mainly fuelled by the accommodation sector, while hiring politely declined. This whole mess is perfectly consistent with employers adjusting to the glorious higher-cost environment brought to you by insightful US trade policy and that wonderful, lingering economic uncertainty. Truly, a masterpiece of timely government data delivery and contradictory market signals.

In a nutshell, the BLS finally dumped two months of delayed JOLTS data, revealing a sudden, suspicious surge in job openings (driven mostly by healthcare) right alongside the highest layoff rate of 2023.

The esteemed National Bureau of Statistics reports that China's consumer price growth found modest footing in November, rising to 0.7% annually, thereby suggesting a gentle easing of deflationary pressures. However, the foundation remains soft. Though consumer prices gained, the enduring challenge is reflected in producer prices, which recorded their thirty-eighth consecutive month of decline (falling 2.2%). This persistent factory-gate deflation confirms that overcapacity and the lingering housing slump continue to impede the restoration of a robust economic equilibrium.

The discerning investor, recognizing the fierceness of China's economic competition, understands that the true harbinger of profit lies not in headline figures, but in the spread between Core CPI and Core PPI. With consumer prices demonstrating resilience (CPI rising) while producer costs continue their protracted decline (PPI falling), this pivotal spread has remained consistently positive and expanding since August 2022. This imbalance acts as a powerful, sustained tailwind for corporate margins. Thus, the evidence suggests a strong foundation for the continued re-rating of Chinese equities throughout 2026 and the subsequent years.

In a nutshell, despite China's persistent factory deflation and soft consumer prices, the widening spread between Core CPI and Core PPI is creating a powerful, sustained tailwind for corporate margins, signaling a strong re-rating opportunity for Chinese equities into 2026.

🤵 The Macro Butler Special Service 🤵

🌐 The Educated Yet Idiots not only turned the Fed into their personal ATM but also conveniently made it the fall guy for the business cycle’s inevitable twists. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/how-educated-yet-idiots-converted

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https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/how-educated-yet-idiots-converted-6ff

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The Macro Butler recently sat down with Christian White from Marbella Media for a discussion so big it required a wide-angle lens, aiming to fix the world one intellectual “pothole” at a time!

Together, we tackled the charming forces quietly reshaping the global order, including the colossal wealth gap (it’s so big, even Jeff Bezos needs a telescope to spot the working class), the increasingly sorry state of Europe’s wallet, which they’ve dubbed “The Continental Cooldown,” and the depressing fact that war has evolved from a last resort into a handy political power move for distracting everyone from the first two problems.

Go on, brew up that gourmet coffee (you deserve it!), sit back, and prepare to have your worldview gently elbowed.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-christian-white-04122025

While the mass-media bang their drums for yet another “liberation” adventure—this time eyeing Venezuela’s resources with the usual incense of democracy—some sages in the Washington swamp appear to have suddenly discovered clarity. Like Lao Tseu watching generals trip over their own swords, they whisper: “When a structure has outlived its purpose, let it go.” Thus comes the notion that the North Atlantic Terror Organization—NATO, that ancient Cold War relic—should finally be allowed to return to the dust. Why pour treasure into distant lands practicing their own flavour of socialism, when the path of wisdom says: “Defend your own house before lecturing your neighbor on feng shui”?

https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1998526052243746978

As Washington cranks up its warmongering theatrics against its latest boogeyman—Venezuela—the U.S. is now using the very tactics it loves to denounce. The FBI, Homeland Security, the Coast Guard, and the ever-eager Department of War proudly announced they’d seized a tanker carrying “sanctioned” Venezuelan and Iranian crude, a ship they’ve blacklisted for years for supposedly aiding “terror networks.” The operation unfolded just off Venezuela’s coast, wrapped in triumphant press releases about “security” and “ongoing investigations.” In reality, this is less about justice and more about protecting the oil barons orbiting the Warmonger-in-Chief—especially now that China, the usual buyer of this crude, has been dragged into the escalation. The U.S. increasingly resembles the very “terror states” it claims to defend the world from; the only difference is that its crusades always seem to make the right American pockets a little richer.

https://x.com/AGPamBondi/status/1998875795151024337

If anyone still needed proof that the AI bubble has reached peak absurdity and is ready to pop, here it is: Time has crowned the “Architects of AI” as its 2025 Person of the Year. Apparently, this was the year AI’s “full potential roared into view”—or, more accurately, the year hype finally drowned out common sense. Time insists on celebrating the people behind AI rather than the technology, framing them as the noble bringers of the “age of thinking machines.” The cover, styled after Lunch Atop a Skyscraper, lines up eight tech titans—Zuckerberg, Su, Musk, Huang, Altman, Hassabis, Amodei, and Fei-Fei Li—like they’re building the modern world rather than another hype cycle. Five of them are billionaires whose combined wealth (~$870 billion) has ballooned right alongside the AI mania.

https://www.axios.com/2025/12/11/time-person-of-the-year-2025-ai

Time has made symbolic choices before (Ebola Fighters in 2014, the PC in 1982). But this one? It reads less like recognition and more like a bright red warning sign flashing top of the bubble.

In a country drowning in debt and bad decisions, it’s hardly shocking that some Americans now think socialism is the life raft. After putting a communist in charge of New York, disillusioned voters have crowned a blue socialist in Donald Copperfield’s own backyard. Miami just elected Eileen Higgins—the city’s first female mayor and its first Democrat in nearly three decades—because nothing says “fresh ideas” like more government. Higgins is promising to fix Miami’s affordability crisis by speeding up permits that currently take longer than the buildings themselves, finding city-owned land to sprinkle with “affordable housing,” and creating yet another housing trust fund. Because if there’s one thing America desperately needs, it’s more taxes funding more bureaucracy to solve problems created by… bureaucracy.

https://www.wlrn.org/government-politics/2025-12-10/miami-mayor-elect-eileen-higgins-affordability

In the latest episode of “Who Still Buys This Stuff?”, the Treasury managed to unload $22 billion of 30-year paper. The yield edged up to 4.773%—because apparently investors demanded just a tiny bit more pain than in November’s auction. And in a rare plot twist, the auction actually stopped through the When-Issued yield by a whopping 0.1 bps. Yes, truly groundbreaking—only the second time in six months that buyers pretended to be enthusiastic.

The bid-to-cover ticked up to 2.365%—a heroic improvement from November’s 2.295% and barely above the six-auction average, so everyone can pretend demand is “strong.” Indirects took 65.4%, down from the November spike but still the best foreign showing since January once you remove that one magical outlier. Directs grabbed their usual ~23%, and dealers were stuck with just 11.2%—apparently even they’re getting tired of absorbing Washington’s endless IOUs.

In short, it was another “strong” auction—solid demand, smooth execution, and just enough optimism to reassure those still hypnotized by Wall Street pundits. Never mind that long-end yields keep flashing warning signs, or that under the enlightened leadership of the Educated Yet Idiots, the former “risk-free” asset has quietly transformed into the riskiest bet in the coming Trump-era stagflation. After all, why face reality when you can keep buying the fairy tale?

A day after the Central Banker-in-Chief announced its latest round of QE—sorry, not QE… sorry again, “Reserve Management Purchases”—the New York Fed dutifully released its POMO—sorry, not POMO—schedule. But because they’re buying T-bills instead of longer maturities, we’re told it’s definitely not QE… by some truly Olympic-liquidity management operation. In any cases, between Dec. 12 and Jan. 14, the Fed will scoop up $40 billion in T-bills for “reserve management,” including $8.2 billion this Friday, plus another $14.4 billion from agency reinvestments. Totally not QE, of course—just the Fed doing “non-QE” things for “non-QE” reasons.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/treasury-securities/treasury-securities-operational-details#monthly-details

There’s a real risk that the Fed will have to keep its “not-QE” purchases running hot for longer, since the current pace of RMPs only restores about $80 billion of liquidity by mid-April—barely half of the $150 billion BofA estimates is needed for the “ideal outcome.” And if bill investors start feeling “adversely affected,” the Fed will simply migrate into coupons out to three years—because nothing says totally not QE like expanding into longer-dated Treasuries to avoid market disruption. Good luck to the pro-Fed commentariat trying to spin that away.

In a nutshell, the Fed’s latest “not-QE” stunt is just QE in a fake mustache—$40B in bill buys, more to come, and likely a quiet slide into longer maturities once markets squeal.