In a nutshell, the tailing 10-year auction was yet another reminder that the “risk-free” U.S. Treasury is now the riskiest fruit in the bunch. As America leans deeper into banana republic territory, investors are waking up to the uncomfortable truth: the only safe portfolio left is the banana republic special — stocks for the show, and gold for survival.

On November 12, Congress finally ended the longest government shutdown in U.S. history—just in time to save Thanksgiving from turning into a national budgeting seminar. The deal funds key agencies like Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, and the FDA through 2026, while everyone else gets a short extension until January 30. Translation: they’ve kicked the can down the road... again.
Republicans won’t touch Obamacare subsidies, Democrats are trying to save face, and both sides clearly wanted to clock out for the holidays. The good news? Federal workers can relax, planes will still fly, and America can pretend everything’s fine through New Year’s. But let’s be real—Congress shouldn’t get paid for doing nothing. Their endless gridlock keeps adding billions to the national debt. At this rate, the only thing truly bipartisan in Washington is the art of procrastination… and maybe the quiet, creeping sense that the Union’s patience is running out.


https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/1988821582802804866

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As the Washington shutdown circus finally folded its tent—at least until January—the US Treasury decided it was time to pass the hat around again, auctioning $25BN in 30-year bonds. The sale ended with a high yield of 4.694%, a tiny dip from last month’s 4.734%, but still managed to tail the When-Issued level of 4.684% by a full 1 basis point. That makes it the second tail in a row and the biggest since August, when the auction tripped over its own feet with a 2.1bps tail. Even the bond market seems exhausted by the political clown show.

The bid-to-cover limped in at 2.295, down from 2.382 and scraping the bottom of the barrel—its lowest since August’s 2.266. Remove that outlier and today’s number would be the worst since 2023. The internals tried their best to look respectable: Indirects stepped up with a 71% take, their strongest showing since October 2024. But Directs clearly didn’t get the memo, plunging to 14.5% from 26.9%—their weakest since, well, also October 2024. Dealers, as usual, were the unlucky ones left holding 14.5%, their heaviest load since August. In short: everyone showed up, just not in the right proportions.

Overall, it was yet another subpar, tailing auction—proof that more investors are waking up to the fact that the “risk-free asset” now comes with a side of risk. With the US increasingly behaving like those nations run by “Educated-Yet-Idiots,” Treasuries are starting to feel a bit… Banana Republic-flavored.

China’s October data softened a bit, but not enough for Beijing to open the stimulus floodgates. As Master Kong might say: “When holidays distort the numbers, wise officials do not panic.” Much of the slowdown was simply factories front-loading orders in September, and average output still beat August levels. With GDP already solid and a little tariff relief in the air, China needs only a modest 4.5% in Q4 to hit its 5% target—an easy hurdle for an economy that has seen bigger dragons than this. Policymakers will likely keep their powder dry, focusing on long-term plans for 2026–2030 while saving a few policy arrows for early next year.
Industrial output cooled to 4.9%, retail sales stayed sluggish at 2.9%, and investment continued its Confucian lesson in humility—falling for a fifth straight month. Yet month-on-month, activity still shows signs of life. As Confucius might quip: “A slowing ox still moves forward… just not as fast as the cart driver wishes.”

China still faces headwinds at home and abroad. Even after a trade-war pause, October’s export slump shows that global demand remains as fickle as a Confucian student before exams. Singles Day may perk up November, but there’s no sign of a true consumer revival. Policymakers, ever mindful that “the wise mend the roof before the rain,” are using the rest of 2025 to prepare for 2026 — no more easing for now, with modest rate and RRR cuts saved for next year. Instead, Beijing will keep working on its local-government debt puzzle and likely front-load some 2026 special bond quotas early next year.

In a nutshell, China’s economy is slowing but still steady enough that Beijing, like a patient Confucian sage, is saving its stimulus tools for 2026 rather than rushing to fix what merely needs a gentle nudge, not a rescue.

The Macro Butler pulled up another armchair for a lively exchange with Piggo’s Trading Desk , noting — in true Confucian fashion — that while China steadies itself after deflation and prepares to lead the next decade, the West, guided by its legion of ‘Educated Yet Idiots’, continues to scatter wealth like a careless court official with holes in his purse.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-piggos-trading-desk-ad1

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The Macro Butler spent afternoon tea with Hongbin Jeong of Money FM 89.3 Singapore—spilling Earl Grey and market secrets—while breaking down the investment boom powering America’s new electric grid and how investors can plug in for profit.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-money-fm-893-singapore-70b

The Western “Educated Yet Idiots” are so desperate to plug the holes in their overspent budgets that they always want to tax anything that glitters.

Case in point: Italy’s brilliant new idea—a one-off levy forcing households to declare off-the-books gold, hoping to squeeze out over €2 billion. Pay 12.5% to “certify” your bullion, heirloom jewelry, or old coins by June 2026, or risk a 26% tax later. Unsurprisingly, people have been avoiding the official market like the plague, pushing sales underground. With an estimated 4,500–5,000 tons of privately held gold—worth about €500 billion—the government clearly knows exactly where the treasure is… and wants a piece of it.

https://www.reuters.com/business/italy-weighs-one-off-levy-bring-private-gold-holdings-into-formal-economy-2025-11-14/

In a nutshell, Italy, desperate for revenue, now wants to tax citizens’ hidden gold—because when governments go broke, even grandma’s jewelry becomes fair game.

The Macro Butler pulled into Dubai for a lunchtime pit stop on Asharq Bloomberg TV, serving up thoughts on oil, gold, and the markets’ latest “risk-off” slingshot.

Despite the noise, both oil and gold are revving much higher for anyone bold enough to buy the dip.

So buckle up, top off the tank, and enjoy the ride.

The interview has been translated into Arabic.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-asharq-bloomberg-tv-b17

The Macro Butler sprang out of bed at an hour so early even the coffee was still asleep, just to join BFM 89.9 and unpack the latest market rollercoaster—plus a few hot takes on Thailand and Indonesia—while the West continues its grand experiment of letting “Educated Yet Idiots” steer the ship straight toward banana-republic waters.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-bfm-899-malaysia-19112025

As investors proudly rediscover how to Make Volatility Great Again, the U.S. Treasury managed to unload $16B of 20-year bonds at a lofty 4.706%—a neat 20 bps jump from last month and the highest since August. The auction even tailed the WI at 4.704% by a microscopic 0.2 bps… because apparently, even bond auctions are now feeling nostalgic for the chaos of June.

Everything else about the auction was a beauty pageant for bad numbers: the bid-to-cover ratio collapsed from 2.73 to a sad 2.41 — the weakest since November 2024 and miles below the six-auction average of 2.66.
The internals didn’t bother to look any better. Indirect bidders retreated to 59.5% from 63.6%, their lowest showing since February 2024 and well under the recent 65.3% average. Meanwhile, Directs charged in like overeager rescuers, taking down 29.1% — up from 26.3% and the highest on record — because apparently someone had to stop the thing from looking like a failed garage sale.

Dealers were left holding 11.4% — their heaviest bag since August — proving once again that when everyone else steps back, the dealers get volunteered to catch the falling knife.