Even the president seems to be bracing for a storm. The White House’s latest “ballroom renovation”—a polite phrase for demolishing the East Wing and replacing it with a 90,000-square-foot fortress—comes with security upgrades no one will officially describe. The old Presidential Emergency Operations Centre is being modernized, expanded, and quietly folded into a project that looks suspiciously less like interior design and more like bunker-centric nation-planning. The White House Military Office is running the show, architects are protesting that the new structure will swallow the historic complex whole, and critics wonder whether the real centerpiece isn’t the ballroom at all, but the subterranean refuge beneath it. In classic Orwellian fashion, the government assures us it’s just redecorating—while digging deeper underground.

https://www.themirror.com/news/us-news/donald-trump-white-house-bunker-1468826

In a nutshell, as trust in U.S. institutions crumbles, officials retreat to military bases and the White House quietly fortifies its underground bunkers—proof that “Fortress America” is being built faster than anyone will admit.

As the U.S. government shutdown drags on—now so bad it’s apparently slowing down the airspace—ADP reported that private payrolls rose by 42,000 after dropping 29,000 the previous month. Economists expected 30,000, so at least someone beat a forecast this week. With official data stuck in shutdown limbo, ADP is one of the few clues left about the job market. The takeaway? Hiring is still happening, just at the limp, half-hearted pace of a country waiting for Washington to remember how to govern.

Wage growth has been flatter than a day-old soda for over a year, suggesting the labour market’s supply and demand are grudgingly balanced. Still, headline layoffs from Amazon, Starbucks, and Target have everyone nervously refreshing LinkedIn. Jobless claims remain low—for now—but the “no-firing” truce could easily crack. October saw a modest rebound: services added 32k jobs, goods producers 9k, and most of the gains came from education, health care, and transportation. Meanwhile, professional services, information, and even leisure and hospitality keep shedding workers for a third straight month, and small businesses haven’t added jobs in three months.

In a shutdown-strangled economy, hiring is limping along, wages are flat, layoffs are creeping in, and the ADP report is basically the only pulse check left—showing a job market that’s alive, but far from well.

While U.S. manufacturing is still moping in the corner, the services sector is apparently riding high on the great AI fairy tale. October’s ISM services index jumped to 52.4, thanks to new orders from data centres and a burst of M&A activity that may or may not last longer than a news cycle. Prices paid hit their highest level since 2022—because nothing says “booming economy” like everything getting more expensive. Employment is still contracting, just a bit less miserably than before. But sure, if you squint hard enough, this all adds up to an economy growing at a tidy 2.5% annualized pace.

In a nutshell, the services sector is cheerfully riding the AI hype while prices surge, jobs shrink, and manufacturing sulks—yet somehow the data still insists the economy is growing.

A quarter-century after New York was shaken by terrorism and immortalized by Gordon Gekko as capitalism’s high temple, the city has now elected a democratic socialist mayor—prompting half the country to declare the American Dream officially “under renovation.” Zohran Mamdani, 34, swept into office with 50.4% of the vote, becoming the youngest NYC mayor in a century and the first South Asian and first Muslim to hold the job. He promised a “new era” of governance powered by cheaper living, faster buses, and taxes wealthy New Yorkers already feel forming a lump in their throats.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/flashback-wildest-moments-mamdani-overcame-campaign-trail-become-nycs-next-mayor

Wall Street didn’t bother waiting for Mayor-Elect Mamdani’s victory speech before fleeing New York; the stampede to “Y’all Street” was already well underway. Dallas has become the new financial Ellis Island, welcoming bankers, hedge funds, and fintechs desperate for fresh air, lower taxes, and a regulatory environment that doesn’t lecture them about their carbon footprint. Texas now boasts more finance workers than New York, Goldman is building a half-billion-dollar campus, JPMorgan is quietly shifting its centre of gravity south, and the brand-new Texas Stock Exchange—backed by BlackRock, Citadel, and Schwab—promises IPOs without the Manhattan migraine. With New York piling on taxes, mandates, and DEI paperwork thicker than a prospectus, Wall Street’s glory days are giving way to a new era where the trading floor soundtrack is less “Buy!” and more “Howdy.”

https://sherwood.news/markets/texas-wants-a-piece-of-wall-street-txse/

As the political circus that is the American Banana Republic enters yet another act, it’s no shock that U.S. consumer sentiment just fell to a three-year low. The government shutdown is fogging up the economic outlook, prices are still biting, and Americans now rank their personal finances somewhere between “not great” and “please make it stop.” The University of Michigan’s sentiment index slid to 50.3, with current conditions hitting a record low as worries about the shutdown, layoffs, and a weakening job market pile up.

Even though long-term inflation expectations eased a bit, fears of unemployment jumped, buying conditions tanked, and optimism evaporated. With official data silenced by the shutdown, Americans are left relying on surveys and vibes—and the vibes aren’t good.

As Washington’s shutdown drags on, consumer sentiment has crashed to a three-year low, with Americans feeling poorer, worried about their jobs, and convinced the economy is running on political circus fumes.

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 The more the ‘Educated Yet Idiots’ borrow to stay popular, the closer the world is to the next debt jubilee. 🌐

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https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/when-debt-trap-turns-into-jubilee-6dc

While the geopolitical chess match with the American Empire drags on, China’s inflation finally showed a pulse: CPI rose 0.2% year over year after September’s drop, beating expectations and proving the economy isn’t entirely in hibernation. Food prices fell less sharply, non-food costs crept higher, and core CPI hit its strongest level since March 2024. Even PPI deflation eased, helped by fewer price wars and better capacity management in everything from solar gear to batteries. In short, China’s price data isn’t booming—but at least it’s no longer flatlining.

When observing the spread between China’s core CPI and PPI—positive for 38 consecutive months—we see a reflection of corporate vitality and resilience. In a highly competitive market, companies that offer better quality at lower cost naturally rise, while others yield and make room, much like the Confucian principle that harmony emerges when each fulfils its proper role. This dynamic resembles the true spirit of “Darwinian” capitalism that many nations praise but no longer fully practice. China’s experience reminds us of that prosperity stems from diligence, discipline, and the continuous refinement of one’s offerings, not from complacency or boastful claims about economic superiority.

In a nutshell, China’s inflation finally stirred, and a 38-month positive CPI–PPI spread shows its most competitive firms quietly thriving while weaker ones bow out—a Confucian lesson in economic discipline.

In a curious twist worthy of a Confucian eyebrow raise, the land that prides itself on capitalism watches as Donald Copperfield, the eternal conjurer of political sleight-of-hand, announces yet another vanishing act for fiscal gravity: a “dividend of at least $2,000” for most Americans, magically funded by tariffs. With a flourish on Truth Social, he declares that these tariffs have summoned “trillions” into the treasury, 401(k)s are at “Highest EVER,” and inflation—poof! —has disappeared like a poorly performed illusion. One can almost hear Confucius sigh: “He who chases applause with illusions may find the people clapping, yet the Way remains unmoved.”

In the grand theatre of American finance, Treasury—loyal soldier of the Keynesian deep state and former scribe to George Soros—announces $195 billion collected from tariffs, dreaming of $500 billion annually. He claims the aim is “rebalancing trade,” yet whispers of $2,000 dividends, delivered via tax tricks or creative deductions, float like incense over the markets. Confucius might observe: “When rulers scatter gold from the sky, the people rejoice, yet the Way of moderation quietly shakes its head.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jv7uLF9F41I

In a nutshell, when political magicians shower the people with $2,000 “tariff dividends,” the crowd cheers, the markets dance, but the Way of moderation quietly shakes its head.