Meanwhile, inflation isn’t taking a summer break—prices paid jumped to 69.9, the highest since 2022, thanks to rising equipment and supply costs. And hiring? Still contracting. The employment index dropped to 46.4, its lowest since March, echoing the July jobs report, where gains were mostly limited to healthcare and social assistance.

In a nutshell, Services are stalling, prices are surging, and jobs are vanishing—just don’t tell the Manipulator-in-Chief.

One week after the Treasury’s refunding announcement delivered a whole lot of nothing—no changes to the coupon auction schedule, no bold moves, just a lazy punt to short-term bills—the government rolled out a hefty $158 billion in debt issuance, including a jaw-dropping $100 billion in four-week bills and $58 billion in 3-year notes.

The market, ever the optimist, treated this flood of paper as a signal that a Fed rate cut in September is practically baked in, with the 3-year high yield dropping to 3.669%—the lowest since last September and a far cry from the 4.332% peak seen in January. Of course, the auction still couldn’t stick the landing, coming in with a 0.7 basis point tail versus the 3.662% when-issued level—the third tail in a row and the ninth in the last eleven auctions. But who’s counting?

Apparently not the Treasury, which seems content to paper over fiscal reality with an endless stream of short-term IOUs while hoping nobody notices the mounting dysfunction.

The headline bid-to-cover ratio of 2.526 looked decent—slightly above last month’s 2.509—but still below the six-auction average of 2.589, and the internals told a far less flattering story. Indirect bidders (mostly foreign buyers) pulled back again, dropping to 53.99%—the weakest showing since December 2023. Direct bidders stepped in with a still-elevated 28.1% take, just below July’s record, suggesting continued unusual demand from smaller institutions or hedge funds.

As a result, Dealers were forced to mop up 17.9%, their highest share since April. All in all, demand for 3-year paper from the foreign buyside remains tepid, and the auction felt more like a game of musical chairs with fewer willing players.

Overall, this was a weak, tailing 3Y auction—another sign that investors are waking up to the reality that the once-sacred “risk-free” Treasury IOU is anything but, especially as global war cycles intensify and fiscal risks pile up.

As tariffs shift into high gear, the U.S. trade deficit magically shrank in June—not because the US is exporting more, but because consumers stopped buying stuff. Imports plunged as the great tariff panic stockpiling spree reversed hard, especially with China. The deficit with Beijing dropped $4.6 billion as exports ticked up and imports fell, while retailers scrambled to reroute supply chains through Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand.

In a nutshell, trade remains the global version of musical chairs—only with more paperwork and fewer friends.

The Macro Butler sat down with Natural Resource Stocks (aka Andy Millette) to unpack how the U.S.—along with the rest of the world—is gliding effortlessly from an inflationary boom straight into good old-fashioned stagflation.

We also explored how China and the Global South are quietly fortifying themselves against the ever-benevolent Western “guardians of freedom” who just happen to show up wherever there’s profit to be extracted.

Asset class implications? Oh, they’re coming—and they won’t be gentle for bond holders.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-natural-resource-stocks

Seasoned geopoliticians know economic warfare is wrecking free trade and turning allies into enemies. This isn’t about tariffs—it’s about weaponizing them for political gain. The U.S. threatens India with sanctions over Russian oil. Meanwhile, Global South nations exercise sovereign trade choices. The U.S., rich in resources but starving for rare earth minerals—70% once supplied by China—faces a strategic chokehold. China won’t arm its enemy. That’s why America’s desperate to control Ukraine’s minerals. Digging can’t start until the war ends. The battlefield isn’t just on the front lines—it’s beneath the earth.

Rare earths have long been a strategic asset. Before 1948, India and Brazil held the supply lines. In the 1950s, South Africa took point. From the 1960s to 1980s, the U.S. led the charge with California’s Mountain Pass mine. But the tables turned. By 2017, China captured 81% of global production—commanding the field with just a third of known reserves, mostly from Inner Mongolia. Australia, the only other serious player, held 15% by 2018. When it comes to heavy rare earths like dysprosium—critical for modern warfare—China controls it all. Western nations, once dominant, now watch from the sidelines as China dictates the battlefield under their feet.

Why hasn’t the U.S. started digging in Ukraine? Because nearly half of the country’s critical minerals lie under Russian control. The Donbas region—rich in lithium, coal, gas, and rare earths—is mostly occupied. Russia controls 40% of Ukraine’s metal resources and over half its coal reserves. Key sites near the front lines, like Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv with uranium, are too unstable. Zaporizhzhia, holding rare earths coveted by the U.S., is partially under Russian troops and too dangerous. Central and Western Ukraine are safer but poor in minerals.

Europe faces a similar crunch: Estonia supplies only 5% of U.S. rare earth needs; Malaysia and Japan provide modest amounts. Japan plans deep-sea mining by 2026, but that’s years away and uncertain. Ukraine’s mineral wealth—estimated at $15 trillion and 15% of global reserves—remains locked behind war zones. Meanwhile, China and Russia freely exploit theirs, advancing weapons production with no restrictions.

In a nutshell, free trade is out, resource wars are in—and while the U.S. preaches sovereignty, it’s stuck begging for rare earths while its enemies dig, drill, and dominate the underground battlefield.

While the former New York realtor—who once treated bankruptcy like a business card—now plays the role of “Manipulator-in-Chief” and boasts about the booming economy, the U.S. housing market is quietly waving the white flag. It’s officially flipped from a seller’s dream to a buyer’s playground, with more sellers than buyers by the widest margin since Redfin started keeping track. But sure, everything’s just fine.

The flood of sellers is hitting hardest in the U.S. Southwest and Southeast—think Texas and Florida—where the once red-hot housing market is now cooling fast. The numbers tell the story: 1.92 million sellers versus just 1.41 million buyers. That’s a gap of over 500,000 homes—a historic mismatch not seen since Redfin started tracking this in 2013. Translation? The power’s shifted, and buyers now hold the cards.

In a nutshell, while the “Manipulator-in-Chief” brags about economic greatness, the housing market just handed buyers the keys—with half a million more sellers than buyers and a chill sweeping through Texas and Florida faster than his last bankruptcy filing.

While Donald Copperfield dazzled the press with his latest act—tariffs on India and semiconductors—the real magic trick happened at the U.S. Treasury, where $42 billion in 10-year debt quietly disappeared into the market during reopening auction.

At first glance, it looked like a success: the high yield dropped to 4.255%, the lowest since December—cue applause. But then came the twist. The auction tailed the 4.244% When Issued by 1.1 basis points. That’s the first tail since February, breaking a six-auction streak of stop-throughs.

In other words: we’re still selling the dream—just at a slight discount this time.

The bid-to-cover ratio dropped bigly—from 2.611 to 2.351—marking the lowest since August 2024, and comfortably south of the six-auction average of 2.58.

The internals didn’t bother pretending either. Indirects slipped to 64.2%, their weakest showing since January, while Directs couldn’t be bothered, taking just 19.6%—the lowest since April.

Naturally, that left Dealers to pick up the slack, begrudgingly walking away with 16.2%—their heaviest bag since, you guessed it, August 2024. Nothing says confidence in fiscal leadership quite like everyone stepping back at once.

All in all, this was yet another predictably ugly auction—hardly a shocker. Turns out, more and more investors, those not hypnotized by Donald Copperfield’s tariff theatrics or spoon-fed Wall Street’s “financially interested” advice, are starting to grasp a sobering truth: the so-called “risk-free” asset isn’t so free anymore. Especially for those unwilling to kneel before the new gospel of Trumperialism.

While August unfolds with its secular war cycles, on the Eastern front of the bankrupt empire, the European vassals have once again answered the call of their transatlantic overlords. Under a glorious new North Atlantic Terror Organization (aka NATO) initiative, $1 billion in tribute will be sent to Washington’s arms merchants—because nothing screams peace like more missiles. The Dutch regime proudly pledged $576 million for US Patriot systems to defend Ukraine, while the loyal comrades of Sweden, Denmark, and Norway chipped in another $500 million to prove their unwavering obedience.

Glory to the military-industrial complex. Peace through perpetual escalation.

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/us-and-nato-launch-purl-program-to-boost-military-aid-to-ukraine/

Welcome to the new Politburo of Peace: the Priority Ukraine Requirements List—PURL for short—where Ukraine drafts its imperial Christmas list and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commissar dutifully rubber-stamps it.

No votes, no debates—just direct delivery from Raytheon’s workshop to the frontlines.

All in the name of defending "freedom''.

When a country starts floating rumors about printing $500 bills, it’s safe to say inflation has moved out of the textbooks and into the checkout line. Word on the street is the U.S. might resurrect the $500 bill—last seen during Nixon’s gold window shutdown—this time swapping out McKinley for Donald Copperfield, the man who can make deficits disappear (with applause, not math). Rep. Paul Gosar floated the idea in 2024, possibly as a joke, or worse, as policy.

While Congress probably won’t slap Trump’s face on a note anytime soon, inflation might do the convincing. After all, we’ve already fired the penny for being too broke to matter.

The official story? Big bills help criminals. The unofficial story? So does government spending.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/house-republican-proposes-put-president-trump-500-bill