While Donald Copperfield perfects his backswing in Scotland and fans the flames of the next war cycle, the ever-diligent U.S. Treasury slipped out $69 billion in 2-year notes—graciously awarded at 3.92%, a whopping 0.005% bargain below the issued yield. Nothing says fiscal responsibility like golfing through geopolitics.

Primary dealers walked away with just 10.3% of the auction—sharply lower than the previous take—as direct awards surged to 34.4%, conveniently offsetting a drop in indirect participation to 55.3%. Looks like someone had to step up while the usual buyers took a breather.

The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.62, right in line with the average of the past six auctions—steady demand, despite shifting buyer dynamics.

In a nutshell, the first auction of what promises to be a busy week came in surprisingly solid— as Wall Street's talking heads are still not understanding that the so-called “risk-free” asset is anything but, even as it becomes increasingly tokenized.

Fresh off the “shockingly solid” 2Y auction, the Treasury followed up with a $70BN sale of 5-year paper—because why stop now? The high yield landed at 3.983%, up from June’s 3.879%, and just to keep things spicy, it tailed the When-Issued 3.975% by 0.8bps—the biggest miss since last October.

The bid-to-cover slipped to 2.31 from 2.36—its weakest showing since May and below the six-auction average of 2.38. As for the internals? Let’s just say they didn’t win any beauty contests: Indirects collapsed to 58.3% from 64.7%, marking the lowest level since June 2022.

And with Directs scooping up 29.5%—their biggest take since 2012—Dealers were left holding 12.2%, just a touch above the recent 11.0% average.

Overall, it was a weak auction—but despite the glaringly poor demand, markets shrugged it off. That complacency toward fading appetite for U.S. debt won't last much longer.

While tariffs are supposedly the magic fix for Washington’s spending habits, the U.S. Treasury just raised its Q3 borrowing estimate by over $450 billion—from $554B to a staggering $1.007T. Apparently, a smaller cash cushion and weaker inflows mean Uncle Sam will need nearly a trillion just to keep the lights on—because nothing says fiscal discipline like more debt.

In classic Treasury fashion, the $449B in borrowing that was supposed to hit in Q2—derailed by the debt ceiling standoff—has been conveniently kicked into Q3. Instead of the originally forecasted $554B, the Treasury now plans to borrow $1.007T this quarter, a nearly identical offset to the missed Q2 haul. Excluding the cash balance shuffle, the actual increase is just $60B—modest, though not exactly encouraging given the extra $25B in tariff revenues. Looking ahead, Q4 borrowing is pegged at $590B, $90B below earlier estimates. As for Q2, the Treasury borrowed just $65B vs. the expected $514B, ending June with a far smaller cash balance of $457B instead of $850B.

Bottom line: no major surprises. The real story remains the refill of the Treasury General Account—pending, of course, a debt ceiling deal by Sept 30. Stay tuned for Wednesday’s 8:30 a.m. Refunding Statement, where the real details get served.

A searingly clear and unflinching analysis from the indomitable Pepe Escobar

(https://t.me/rocknrollgeopolitics) reveals the dark truth behind the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia — a masterstroke orchestrated by the shadowy American alphabet agencies.

This calculated move aims to destabilize ASEAN just as it forges powerful economic alliances with the rising Russia-China-India Triumvirate. Dive deep into this geopolitical chess game at


https://globalsouth.co/2025/07/28/why-thailand-and-cambodia-are-at-war-in-the-heart-of-asean/

Earlier this year, the usual climate doom prophets were out in full force, warning us of a scorched, drought-ridden European summer in 2025. Some models even screamed 45°C as the new normal—because apparently, science fiction now passes for science. But fast forward, surprise surprise, reality didn’t get the memo.

After snow in Alberta last week, now it’s the Alps’ turn to ruin the narrative. The snow line is dropping to just 2,500 meters—and even lower in some spots—with up to 30 centimeters of fresh powder expected. In peak summer, no less!


https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/07/28/july-snow-forecast-in-alps-shocks-europeansup-to-30-cm-as-global-temps-plummet/

Funny how the doomsayers have suddenly gone quiet... or are busy twisting the snowfall into yet another “proof” of climate chaos — because, of course, everything is climate change when the narrative demands it. Meanwhile, as the solar cycle marches on, few dare mention the Sun’s secret symphony: those hidden solar rhythms that have long steered the twists of the business cycle and quietly shaped the fate of financial empires.

https://t.me/TheMacroButlerSubstack/48

While the self-proclaimed “Peacemaker-in-Chief” and his deep-state darling “Ambassador-in-Chief” were busy lecturing Thailand and Cambodia to play nice over a border dispute likely stirred up by the usual Alphabet Agency suspects, the U.S. military was rolling out the red carpet for a Cambodian general in Hawaii—just another day of strengthening the Indo-Pacific, one contradiction at a time.

https://www.pacom.mil/Media/NEWS/News-Article-View/Article/4257748/royal-cambodian-armed-forces-delegation-visits-usindopacom-for-bilateral-defens/

For anyone still clinging to the illusion that the Thailand-Cambodia border dispute—now a full-blown war—is just a local skirmish, this should be all the proof needed: it’s yet another proxy war, targeting another #BRICS-aligned nations daring to resist the Malthusian western agenda of managed decline and population control.

As these countries embrace mercantilism and self-reliance, it becomes increasingly clear who's pulling the strings—and why another conflict was conveniently ignited in #ASEAN.

As ‘Donald Copperfield’ slithered out of his Scottish lair, having once again cast his spell of global discord, the infernal gears of the empire turned with ritual precision. The US Treasury—high priest of debt—summoned $44 billion in 7Y notes, conjured at a yield of 4.092%. Though higher than last month’s offering, it still whispered the sweet lie of stability—second lowest since the cursed month of September past.

But the true devilry? The auction stopped a full 2.6bps below the 4.118% When Issued—its most seductive pricing since August 2022—marking the 9th stopping-through in the last 11 summonings. Clearly, the sacrificial buyers continue to feast on the belly of the curve, hypnotized by the illusion of safety in a world teetering on the edge of engineered chaos.

The infernal ritual didn’t stop at seductive yields—the bid-to-cover ratio surged from a dismal 2.531 to a blistering 2.787, the highest since the dark rites of August 2012. The auction's internals whispered of deeper possession: Indirects—typically the foreign acolytes—fled the altar, awarded just 62.3%, well below June’s 76.7% and the 67.0% average.

But fear not, for the void was swiftly filled by the inner circle—Directs—who rose from the shadows to claim a record 33.7%, a dramatic resurrection from last month’s meager 11.6%. Dealers, once the dutiful backstoppers of the empire’s debt orgy, were cast aside with a paltry 4.1%—the lowest slice of the infernal pie ever recorded.

The message is clear: the beast still feeds, but the hands offering the blood have changed.

Overall, it was a devilishly solid 7-year auction—much to the confusion of Wall Street’s sleepwalkers, still clinging to their broken models that scream “buy bonds when bombs drop.” But in this new age of permanent war and weaponized dollars, yields won’t sink—they’ll soar.

And while the high priests of fiat whisper about safety in paper, the true ark of survival gleams in gold. Not because it yields, but because it endures. As the Malthusian architects of depopulation tighten their grip, only gold remains untamed—antifragile, incorruptible, and immune to the poisoned pen of central planners.

🤵 The Macro Butler Special Service 🤵

🌐 Rates stay frozen, the Fed plays tough—but the endless cash drip is back, powerless against wars and crumbling institutions. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/frozen-rates-flowing-liquidity-ahead