The pattern across both countries is identical: energy costs rise, multiple sectors align in opposition simultaneously, and governments that refused to negotiate discover that the military is a considerably more expensive substitute for a policy response. The Energy Lockdowns of Eurostan have not yet been formally declared. The riots, however, have already begun.

As Confucius might gently observe, the wise power need not wage war when patience and supply chains suffice: the Middle Kingdom, a diligent reader of Sun Tzu, understands that a quiet squeeze can achieve what armies cannot—especially when certain empires insist on turning trade routes into chessboards. While others experiment with “creative disruptions” in distant deserts, China watches nearby chokepoints with polite interest, knowing geography is the ultimate strategist. Meanwhile, the latest economic scrolls reveal a touch of irony: factory prices have finally stirred from their long slumber thanks to rising energy costs, nudging inflation upward just as consumer demand takes a courteous step back.

The true test of a company is not what the prices say, but what it can pass on. For Chinese corporates—as everywhere—the real game lies in transmitting higher costs to the consumer, and the spread between core CPI and core PPI quietly reveals how much pricing power still remains. In March, that spread stayed positive, but shrank to its lowest level since December 2020—an era when valuations were still lofty, just before the great reality check of 2021–2022 gently reminded investors that margins, like virtue, are easier preached than preserved.

In a nutshell, China plays the long game—using patience, chokepoints, and pricing power—while markets relearn that when margins shrink, valuations soon follow.

The third CPI print arrived right on cue—because after a full month of “holy” chaos, nothing says surprise like a neat +0.9% MoM, the biggest jump since May 2022, when inflation last decided to go full main character. Year-over-year, CPI politely reaccelerated to 3.3%—just a touch below expectations, but still the hottest since May 2024, because apparently inflation enjoys a good comeback tour. Under the hood, energy woke up (+0.8% YoY, the strongest since late 2022), food looked deceptively calm (for now), and the whole thing feels less like a peak and more like the appetizer before the second course—where shortages start showing up and inflation stops pretending it’s under control.

Core CPI delivered another riveting episode of “nothing to see here”: +0.2% MoM and +2.6% YoY—just a hair below expectations, and conveniently a touch hotter than last time, because consistency matters when maintaining the illusion. The real headliner was core services (a casual 76% of the basket), heating up to 2.30%, its warmest since November, while core goods stayed politely subdued at +0.28%. Translation: everything looks beautifully under control—right before shortages, energy shocks, and petrochemical chaos make their inevitably dramatic entrance. Enjoy the calm while it lasts.

March’s CPI will no doubt be waved away by Donald Copperfield as another “transitory” hiccup—just a minor side effect of the Empire’s latest Middle East little excursion—when in reality it looks suspiciously like the opening act of inflation’s sequel: first energy, then food, then everything else. Call it Stagflation: Season 2—same plot, bigger budget, fewer exits. While officials toast “transitory data” and rehearse their victory speeches, actual households are busy funding the remake through higher grocery and energy bills. Inflation hasn’t disappeared—it’s just warming up ahead of the next sprint, conveniently timed with rising fiscal excess to finance more holy wars and declining trust in institutions. But sure, nothing to see here—just don’t compare the narrative with your receipt.

Instead of daydreaming about 2–3% inflation like it’s a campaign slogan, seasoned investors can still do basic math—awkward, I know: for that miracle to happen by end-2026, CPI would need to print a flawless 0.0% every month… which should be easy, right, especially with a “minor” geopolitical hiccup disrupting a fifth of global oil supply. At a more realistic 0.3%+ pace, we’re casually gliding toward 4.7%–6.6% inflation—no big deal. And when that little detail catches up, not even Donald Copperfield playing Central Banker-in-Chief will conjure rate cuts out of thin air. Add in a few well-timed shortages heading into election season, and suddenly the only magic trick left is how purchasing power vanished—poof—somewhere along the supply chain.

In a nutshell, “Transitory” inflation is back—starting with energy, spreading to everything else—while households pay for the sequel policymakers insist isn’t happening.

Consumer sentiment took another elegant dive—down 11% this month, because nothing boosts confidence like rising prices and a geopolitical “side quest.” Everyone’s in a worse mood—young, old, rich, poor, politically divided yet economically united in disappointment. Expectations for business conditions collapsed, personal finances took a hit, and buying anything durable now feels like a luxury sport. Meanwhile, inflation expectations jumped to 4.8%—their biggest monthly surge in a year—because apparently “transitory” now comes with a higher price tag. Over half of consumers openly admit prices are crushing them, gas concerns have doubled, and all of this happened before the ceasefire headlines—so naturally, we’re told things should improve soon. Of course.

In a nutshell, American consumer's confidence is collapsing, inflation fears are surging, and consumers are getting squeezed—yet we’re told relief is just around the corner.

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 Liquidity is the tide that lifts — and sinks — all markets. When it vanishes, everything reprices. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/liquidity-unmasked-the-silent-force

While dispatching his Zionist son-in-law — that versatile diplomat-turned-realtor — to Pakistan to consolidate a ceasefire in a war won comprehensively six weeks ago, Donald Copperfield took a moment from what appears to be an ongoing poker game to inform the Persian theocrats that they hold no cards. This assessment, delivered with the strategic acuity of a man whose previous card game apparently took place on the Lolita Express, overlooks one minor detail: Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz, which is not technically a card but is functionally the entire deck. The theocrats of Tehran, card-free as they allegedly are, have nevertheless managed to close the world's most critical energy chokepoint, trigger the largest supply shock since the 1970s, introduce Europe to fuel rationing, and inaugurate the Trump Stagflation — a macroeconomic achievement so spectacular that it makes the 1970s look like a themed disco party with complimentary punch.

The Warmonger-in-Chief, surveying this landscape and concluding that his opponent holds no cards, is either running the most sophisticated bluff in diplomatic history or has confused the poker table with the Oval Office. Given recent evidence, the distinction appears academic.

Stop scrolling—start understanding 💡

Markets aren’t random. They’re driven by cycles, liquidity, and incentives… and most people are completely missing it.

If you’re tired of headlines, noise, and “experts” who only explain things after they happen—welcome to The Macro Butler.

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https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/liquidity-unmasked-the-silent-force-b7d

After 6 weeks of “Epic Fury,” The Macro Butler went on air with Philippe Labrecque on Radio VM to break down what most investors still don’t get:

⚔️ Why this isn’t just a war—but a proxy conflict shaping the global cycle

🌍 How accelerating war cycles are rewriting the rules of markets

🪙 Why gold and commodities are entering a new structural bull phase

⚠️ And how spreading shortages are setting the stage for “Tremendous Trump Stagflation”

If you want to understand where markets are really heading—not where headlines say they are—this one is for you.

🎧 Full interview (in French)

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-questions-dactualite

After 21 exhausting hours of negotiations in Islamabad — conducted by the Vice-in-Chief and a delegation of Zionist realtors turned diplomats whose previous experience in conflict resolution appears to have been limited to closing property deals in contested neighbourhoods — the Empire has announced, with the surprise of a weather forecast for the sun rising in the east, that there is no deal. In a development that every student of theology, history, and basic human psychology could have predicted before the delegation boarded its flight, two sides that have built their entire political legitimacy on the perpetuation of a holy war have declined to resolve it around a negotiating table in Pakistan.

Season 2: Boots on the Ground is now loading, the world should brace for accelerating oil shortages, and the quagmire that will make Vietnam and Afghanistan look like weekend excursions is moving from pre-production into principal photography. The Strait remains weaponized. The oil price will rise further. The realtors are flying home. And the Empire, having won this war every hour since Hour 1 of Day 1, is preparing to win it even more decisively by sending its young men into Persia on foot.

In a diplomatic masterstroke delivered via Truth Social approximately six hours after acknowledging that negotiations had produced nothing, the Warmonger-in-Chief announced that the Navy of the Empire will begin blockading every ship attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz — a strait that Iran has already effectively weaponized — until the Empire reaches what he described, with characteristic precision, as an "ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN ALL BEING TO GO OUT" deal. The strategic elegance is breathtaking: having failed to negotiate the reopening of a chokepoint that one party controls, the Empire has decided to close it more thoroughly, ensuring that the 20% of global oil supply already disrupted by the war the Empire started is now disrupted by the blockade the Empire is adding.

Oil markets, energy-importing nations, and the governments— currently implementing fuel rationing — are understood to be processing this development with the equanimity of people who have just been informed that the fire brigade has decided to assist the arsonist. The Ministry of Victory reports that this represents maximum pressure. The oil price reports that it represents maximum opportunity. Both, for once, are correct.