While markets were busy pricing Armageddon, the U.S. Treasury quietly sold $58BN of 3-year notes at a higher yield of 3.897%—and, inconveniently for the panic narrative, demand was strong enough to stop through by 1.2bps, the seventh such outcome in eight auctions.

The bid-to-cover ratio rebounded to 2.682 from 2.546, the highest since November, while demand was driven by a strong return of indirect bidders—primarily foreign central banks—who took down 74.8% of the issue, the highest since September 2024 and the second highest on record.

Direct bidders were allocated just 11.9%—the lowest since September 2024—leaving dealers with 13.3% of the issue, broadly in line with the recent average of 12.3%.

All in all, a truly blockbuster 3-year auction—helpfully reminding Wall Street’s high priests that while they continue preaching the gospel of “risk-free” assets, the market itself seems to be developing a sense of humor. Funny how “risk-free” starts getting a price tag the moment wars escalate and fiscal gravity reappears.

As the Empire marches solemnly toward its economic altar, torch in hand, it appears more than willing to burn through its own currency in the name of yet another “noble” crusade—one apparently choreographed somewhere between geopolitical theater and late-night blackmail drama. And of course, all of it unfolding while the illusionists-in-chief insist everything is under control… just don’t look too closely at the balance sheet behind the curtain.

While the Empire was busy negotiating a ceasefire in a war it created, decorated, and is now attempting to gift-wrap as a victory, Taiwan's opposition leader Cheng Li-wun made a quiet pilgrimage to Beijing for what she herself described as a "journey for peace" — a phrase that, in the current geopolitical context, translates roughly as: we have noticed what happens to American allies, and we would prefer a different arrangement. The timing is, as always, impeccable. Having watched the Empire systematically alienate its Gulf vassals, deplete its missile stockpiles, remove its forces from the island, and demonstrate the full spectrum of its strategic planning capabilities over six weeks of Operation Epic F**k-Up, Taiwan's opposition has apparently concluded that proximity to Beijing is preferable to dependency on Washington.

https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-kmt-visit-xi-trump-03e3a4a320cdd18152cf17639bf83be4

The Middle Kingdom, that patient student of Sun Tzu, needs no military adventure: a gentle economic strangulation of the island that has always been Chinese territory would simultaneously reunify the homeland and sever the Empire's access to its primary semiconductor supply — leaving the artificial intelligence revolution, and every tech billionaire funding it, as exposed as Donald Copperfield on the Lolita Express. The Empire weaponised Middle Eastern oil against China. China is quietly considering which chokepoint to weaponize in return. The Taiwan Strait, one notes, is considerably closer to Beijing than the Strait of Hormuz is to Washington.

While the world holds its breath for a ceasefire with the life expectancy of a TikTok clip, the Empire quietly pushed through a $39 billion 10-year auction. The 9Y10M reopening stopped at 4.282% (up from 4.217% last month and the highest since August), politely tailing the When Issued by 0.2bps—because apparently even “risk-free” paper now needs a little extra incentive to find love.

Demand, unsurprisingly, didn’t exactly scream enthusiasm. The bid-to-cover slipped to 2.429 from 2.449, conveniently below the six-auction average of 2.48—because why break the trend now? Internals told the same charming story: foreign appetite cooled, with indirects dropping to 65.32% from 74.45% (and below average), while directs stepped in to play hero, nearly doubling to 23.88%—their highest since January. Dealers, meanwhile, were left with a modest 10.8%, more out of obligation than conviction, neatly in line with average indifference.

Overall, a slightly underwhelming auction—though hardly surprising when more investors begin to suspect that “risk-free” is just branding. As the Empire zealously funds its latest moral crusade, marching dollars toward the economic altar, the once-sacred Treasury starts to look less like a safe haven and more like the most politely mispriced risk in the room.

After delivering an FOMC meeting about as insightful as yesterday’s weather report in the Sahara, the Fed minutes—released with their usual sense of urgency three weeks later—reveal an institution heroically torn between… everything. Cut rates if war crushes growth, hike them if oil fuels inflation—simple enough, except both are happening at once. Officials politely acknowledged that inflation may stay higher, growth may slow, unemployment may rise, and policy may need to go either way. In short, rates will fall… unless they rise. Meanwhile, Too Late JP keeps the rate parked around 3.6%, waiting for inflation to behave—because clearly, geopolitics has a strong track record of following central bank guidance.

https://www.scribd.com/document/1023734137/Fomc-Minutes-20260318#download&from_embed

In a nutshell the Fed’s grand insight is straightforward : rates may go down if things worsen, up if they don’t—clarity, at its finest.

The great culling of Eurostan's energy profligacy has begun, and the architects of managed scarcity in Brussels will note its arrival with quiet satisfaction. Slovenia has introduced mandatory fuel rationing, Italian airports are prioritising jet fuel for essential flights, and the European Union — that magnificent bureaucratic cathedral of regulated misery — has begun instructing its citizens to work from home, drive less, reduce speed, and consume less of everything, because the Strait of Hormuz, that providential chokepoint, has disrupted the 20% of global oil and gas flows upon which the continent's industrial civilisation depends.

https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/eu-energy-crisis-rationing-dependency-hormuz-covid-lockdowns/

Europe entered this crisis with gas storage at a mere 30% capacity, dependent on Middle Eastern supply for 7% of its oil, 8.5% of its LNG, and as much as 40% of its jet fuel and diesel — a dependency that the Malthusian planners of Washington and Tel Aviv have now activated with surgical precision. Energy-intensive industries are adding surcharges of 30% merely to remain operational, production is contracting, and the stagflationary spiral that reduces both output and purchasing power simultaneously is performing exactly as the historical models predicted. The population has not yet grasped that the oil already in transit is merely delaying the ‘fuel reckoning’. What is currently presented as voluntary guidance will become mandatory restriction. The depopulation of prosperity has commenced. The first phase is always called an energy crisis.

https://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/european-natural-gas-inventories.html

Energy is the economy’s basement—so when it cracks, don’t be surprised if the whole house starts making weird noises. Europe seems to have entered that charming phase, where remote work and “mindful consumption” suddenly look less like lifestyle choices and more like early warning signals that the plumbing underneath is under serious pressure.

Here’s how to explain six weeks of Epic F**k Up in one minute—no charts, no models, just vibes.

In another thrilling data release—about as enlightening as a broken clock in a government office—the Fed’s beloved Core PCE dutifully did exactly what everyone expected: up 0.4% MoM in February (pre-war), with YoY easing to 3.0%, its “lowest since December,” which apparently now qualifies as progress. Headline PCE followed the script just as obediently, rising 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, while beneath the surface, non-durable goods prices decided to wake up at the worst possible time. Meanwhile, the ever-reassuring “SuperCore” slowed to 0.2% MoM, with YoY drifting down to 3.2%—because nothing says victory over inflation like still being comfortably above target, just slightly less embarrassingly so ahead of an energy supply shock.

In a nutshell, the FED beloved inflation indicator came in exactly as expected—still too high, just politely pretending it’s improving ahead of an energy supply shock.

On day two of this “epic” ceasefire—already living up to its reputation—the Empire’s Treasury rolled out a $22 billion 30-year reopening, delivering yet another masterpiece of mediocrity. The auction stopped at 4.876%, basically unchanged from last month’s 4.871% and conveniently the highest since July, while managing to tail the When Issued by 0.5bps—because even long-term “certainty” now needs a little nudge to get across the line.

Demand, naturally, showed all the enthusiasm of a lunch meeting. The bid-to-cover slipped to 2.385—down from 2.452 and the weakest since December ’25—while internals delivered a perfectly “fine” mix of quiet disappointment: indirects at 64.14% (still below average), directs easing to 24.23%, and dealers politely stuck with 11.6%—their largest share since January, because someone has to pretend this is all going according to plan.

Overall, a perfectly mediocre 30-year auction—unsurprising, really, since lending money for three decades to a declining empire busy weaponizing its own currency and financing its latest “holy mission” isn’t exactly everyone’s idea of prudent capital allocation… unless, of course, you’re being paid to pretend it is.

On Day 2 of the Epic Ceasefire of the war that was won on Day 1 — and is therefore presumably now won twice — The Macro Butler is back on Piggo’s Trading Desk , and he didn’t come to make friends with Wall Street.

On the menu today: how to survive Episode 2 in financial markets, why commodity producers are about to become the new Magnificent 7 while AI stocks contemplate their life choices, and why the SpaceX IPO — that glittering rocket-shaped wealth transfer vehicle being lovingly promoted by Wall Street’s finest banksters — deserves considerably more skepticism than enthusiasm.

🎙 Pull up a chair. Pour something strong. Take notes.

👉 Watch now — because while the Empire negotiates its ceasefire and prepares its next move, the smart money is rotating. Has yours? 🛢🥇

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-piggos-trading-desk-0f7