Anyone with a basic grasp of finance knows the key variable for Corporate America is the spread between core CPI and core PPI—i.e., the ability to pass rising input costs onto consumers. In February, that spread compressed to its weakest level since March 2021, just ahead of the 2022 stagflationary squeeze on equities. In other words, inflation was already reaccelerating before policymakers added a geopolitical supply shock by disrupting energy and commodity flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

In a nutshell, inflation was already reaccelerating and margins compressing before policymakers added a geopolitical oil shock via the Strait of Hormuz—a perfectly timed recipe for stagflation.

🤵 The Macro Butler Special Service 🤵

🌐 Behind every great war stands a silent partner: the printing press—because when governments run out of money, central banks ensure they never run out of war. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-war-machine-and-the-printing

In a stunning display of central banking irrelevance, the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged at 0.75%—proving once again that monetary policy is completely helpless against Trump Stagflation and Operation Epic Fury's gift to global markets. The decision was unanimous except for one brave dissenter who apparently didn't get the memo that raising rates into a supply shock will not impact the business cycle. The BOJ now finds itself in a delightful trap: soaring oil prices fuel inflation (bad) but also crush consumption and business activity (also bad). Their solution? Add "Middle East uncertainty" to the risk factors list while maintaining they'll totally raise rates if conditions improve, that scenario where oil magically gets cheaper while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and fertilizer plants burn. Very likely.
Governor Ueda held a press briefing to carefully explain why holding policy steady is actually hawkish, a linguistic tightrope act designed to prevent the yen from collapsing further.

Nothing says "we're in control" quite like a central bank paralyzed by events 6,000 miles away, pretending interest rate adjustments matter when the global energy supply chain is on fire.

While everyone is busy watching fireworks in the Middle East, seasoned investors know the sequel is always a liquidity crisis. Right on cue, the Bank of England is quietly preparing for it—now proposing rules to ensure banks can actually use their “high-quality liquid assets,” which is a polite way of admitting they might not be so liquid after all. Inspired by the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse in 2023—where liquidity vanished as fast as confidence into a newly elected president—the BoE now wants banks to simulate week-long bank runs, because apparently money moves quickly in 2026. Meanwhile, central banks are still draining liquidity through tightening while simultaneously preparing emergency backstops for when things break, a strategy best described as mopping the floor while the tap is still running.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/uk-banking-stability-watchdog-proposes-liquidity-reform-banks-2026-03-17/

Every major financial cycle follows a familiar script: quiet warnings, subtle policy tweaks, tightening conditions, and then—when confidence finally breaks—capital moves with unsettling speed. This is not a shortage of money but a shortage of trust; once confidence erodes, liquidity vanishes regardless of how much central banks attempt to inject. What we are witnessing now appears to be the early stage of that transition, and the Bank of England is quietly signalling it knows.

The Macro Butler returned to Asharq Bloomberg TV dispensing his trademark wisdom: Epic Fury will keep driving oil prices higher, but the real story is growing physical barrel shortages with widening quality differentials.

With the patience of someone explaining obvious truths, he laid out the scorecard—Russia and the US win short-term (chaos is profitable when you’re not being bombed), while GCC producers discover they’re long-term losers as Asian refiners completely rethink supply chains to avoid chokepoint dependency.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-asharq-bloomberg-tv-f64

The same Bank of England, that gloriously impotent temple of Keynesian wishful thinking, predictably held rates at 3.75% while dramatically pledging to "act as necessary" — central bank speak for "we have no idea what we're doing." Inflation? Still stubbornly gate-crashing the 2% party with no signs of leaving. Blame the war, blame energy prices, blame Mercury retrograde. If commodity prices behave, rates stay put; if they don't, brace for a hike. High uncertainty, low credibility, maximum hand-wringing — business as usual, really.

Surprise, surprise — the ECB's politically-anointed Chairwoman also heroically left rates at 2%, because nothing says "we're in control" like doing absolutely nothing while a war reshapes the entire global economy. Officials proudly declared they're "well positioned," central bank code for "please stop asking us hard questions." Inflation might surge, growth might tank, oil could hit $100, economists are sweating bullets — but rest assured, Frankfurt's finest will bravely assess things "one meeting at a time." Truly, the Keynesian dream: maximum uncertainty, minimum accountability, and an unlimited supply of vague, reassuring statements.

In a nutshell, the ECB, paralyzed by war-driven uncertainty, held rates at 2% while masterfully stating the obvious — inflation's going up, growth's going down, and they'll figure it out later.

Uncle Scrooge Bessent, fresh from unsanctioning Russian oil to fight the war Donald Copperfield started to please his zionist donors who funded it, has now unveiled America's boldest foreign policy innovation: weaponizing Iranian oil against Iran. Yes, the same Iran the US is currently bombing. In a move that would make Kafka weep with envy, Washington is essentially telling Tehran, "we're destroying your country, but don't worry — we'll sell your oil to keep gas prices down during the campaign." Mission accomplished: Russia wins, Iran wins, logic loses.

To summarize Washington's latest act of energy market wizardry, Uncle Scrooge Bessent is juggling Iranian oil, SPR releases, and Jones Act waivers to fix the crisis his own administration created — like an arsonist selling fire extinguishers. With Hormuz blockaded, Asia paying $167/barrel while Americans enjoy a quaint $97, and Brent cheerfully decoupling into its own reality, the administration's "plenty of levers" strategy is essentially robbing tomorrow's strategic reserves to paper over today's strategic blunder. The Department of Energy, apparently not briefed on its own policy, politely clarified there are "no plans" — which in Washington means it's already happening.

What magnificent timing: just as the "Epic Fury" coalition celebrates bombing Iran's oil infrastructure into democracy, Iranian exports have somehow doubled to 4 million barrels daily — more than twice the pre-war average. Uncle Scrooge's heroic proposal to "unsanction Iranian oil" arrives precisely when Iran needs no such favor, having apparently figured out how to export more oil while being bombed than before. The Malthusian masterminds destroying Iranian energy infrastructure have, against all odds, turbocharged Iranian energy exports. Mission accomplished, indeed — just not quite the mission anyone advertised.

The Macro Butler sat down with Junus Eu from The Building Financial Podcast to deliver a masterclass in not losing your shirt: investing, he explained, is really just adulting with a roadmap.

You figure out where you are in the business cycle — think of it as financial GPS — and suddenly you know exactly which assets to own. No crystal ball required, just the ability to read the map without driving off a cliff. Chaos is just opportunity in disguise, and the investors who survive it are simply the ones who knew where they were standing before the floor disappeared.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-the-building-financial

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 Gold may glitter in vaults and jewellery stores, but every ounce begins as dirt—miners turning rock into bullion. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/turning-dirt-into-bullion-chasing

The weekend opened with a charming plot twist: Iran—allegedly “obliterated”—somehow found the time to launch intermediate-range ballistic missiles toward the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean. According to conveniently unnamed officials, one missile gave up mid-flight, while the other was politely greeted by a U.S. interceptor—success status, naturally, “unclear.” None actually hit the target, but the real headline is that Iran may now possess capabilities well beyond what was previously dismissed—proving once again that total destruction is a remarkably reversible condition.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-890690

Diego Garcia—a modest little outpost in the Indian Ocean—just happens to be a key UK–US hub for long-range bombers, nuclear submarines, and global surveillance, quietly enabling power projection across half the planet while officially remaining “just a base.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cU8klavvNA

Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/turning-dirt-into-bullion-chasing-706

Week four of Operation Epstein Fury, and the Warmonger-in-Chief — having apparently obliterated Iran fresh every morning like a geopolitical Groundhog Day — now threatens an even newer, more obliterating stage of bombing unless Iran kindly reopens the strait it closed to ships that nobody will insure, carrying oil sold in the very currency of the empire supposedly winning so decisively. The puppet Gulf monarchies watch nervously, London insurers decline politely, and Iran remains stubbornly un-obliterated. Victory, it turns out, is a remarkably flexible concept in Washington's theological dictionary.

Having generously obliterated Iran for four weeks on ‘Satanyahu's tab’, the Warmonger-in-Chief has now presented his Gulf puppet monarchies with the most audacious protection racket in diplomatic history: $5 trillion to keep the war going, or a bargain $2.5 trillion to make it stop — call it the "Epstein Fury" loyalty surcharge. The same Gulf states whose oil nobody will insure, sold in the currency of the empire that started the war they never asked for, must now pay for the privilege of either continuing or ending it. Meanwhile, America hasn't lost soldiers or territory — merely something more expensive and harder to rebuild: the last remnants of Middle Eastern credibility.

‘Satanyahu’, naturally, wants to escalate further, gambling that a president haemorrhaging domestic support will double down rather than fold.

History suggests the Hill is already counting midterm seats.

https://mmnews.tv/2-5-trillion-to-stop-or-5-trillion-to-continue-trump-reportedly-demands-war-ransom-from-arabs/