In a rare moment of good news from a bond market that has been delivering the financial equivalent of passive-aggressive notes for months, the Treasury auctioned $22 billion in 30-year bonds that actually stopped through the When Issued by 0.7 basis points — the fourth consecutive stop through in a row — suggesting that somebody, somewhere, is still willing to lend the United States government money for three decades at 4.871%, the highest yield since last July, in exchange for the privilege of holding the world's safest asset through a holy war, a closed oil chokepoint, and a stagflationary spiral that the Fed has no credible tools to address.

The internals told a more nuanced story. The bid-to-cover slipped to 2.452 from February's 2.662, landing precisely on the recent average — the bond market's equivalent of a shrug. Indirects disappointed at 63.4%, down from 69.9% in February and below the six-auction average of 66.6%, suggesting that foreign buyers — those indispensable custodians of American fiscal excess — are becoming marginally less enthusiastic about financing a government simultaneously bombing for peace. Directs stepped up to 27.2%, above their 23.0% average, partially filling the gap, while Dealers were left holding 9.36% — above last month's record low of 5.88% but still below the recent average of 10.4%. In summary: a solid stop-through headline decorating internals that are quietly, persistently, and entirely unsurprisingly softening — exactly what one would expect the credibility of the empire is being stress-tested in real time on the battlefield.

Overall, a surprisingly solid auction — which says less about the enduring appeal of 30-year Treasuries and more about the staggering number of investors who have yet to process that in the Trump Tremendous Stagflation, the once risk-free asset has quietly become the riskiest thing in the portfolio. The British insurers at Lloyd's, meanwhile, continue their contribution to the chaos by refusing war risk coverage through the Strait of Hormuz — ensuring that the 30-year Treasury buyer and the stranded oil tanker captain share the same essential experience: both are carrying considerably more risk than their paperwork acknowledges, and neither will discover the full extent of it until it is too late to do anything about it.

In a development that the Ministry of Digital Security would classify as a routine procurement update, the Department of War — having initiated its AI dispute with Anthropic, whose conscience proved insufficiently flexible for the Pentagon's requirements — has replaced it with OpenAI, whose conscience proved considerably more accommodating. The transition was swift, efficient, and entirely in keeping with the Ministry's mandate, until OpenAI's Caitlin Kalinowski resigned, warning that "surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got" — a statement that the Ministry of Thoughtful Deliberation has noted and filed accordingly.

https://x.com/kalinowski007/status/2030320074121478618

As the Ministry of Population Security would remind us: this is not surveillance of Americans — it is the protection of Americans, administered at scale, in real time, without judicial oversight, by a computer system that, unlike its human predecessors, never sleeps, never doubts, and never resigns.

In a diplomatic pirouette so elegant it deserves its own press release, Treasury Secretary Uncle Scrooge Bessent — who just days ago was describing Russia as a threat to American global influence — has announced the temporary removal of sanctions on Russian oil, thereby crowning Tsar Vladimir the unlikely hero of Operation Epic Fury's unintended consequences. The administration that bombed Iran to strangle its oil revenues, closed the Strait of Hormuz to Western shipping, and assured markets that crude supplies were "very well supplied" has now quietly designated Russia as the oil supplier of last resort for the Eastern hemisphere — while reserving that honour for the United States in the Western hemisphere — a geopolitical division of energy labour that Tsar Vladimir, sitting behind his maxed-out but suddenly indispensable export infrastructure, could not have engineered more favourably had he planned it himself.

https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/935191/download?inline

In summary: Washington launched Operation Epic Fury to weaken its adversaries, and has spent the subsequent two weeks issuing sanctions waivers to Russia, a foreign policy outcome so contrary to its stated objectives that even the Ministry of Strategic Victory is struggling to find the appropriate banner for the USS Abraham Lincoln moment.

As stale as an avocado left baking on a beach towel, investors finally discovered that US consumer spending barely budged in January (+0.1%, when economists generously predicted 0% growth), while Q4 economic growth got quietly downgraded from a respectable 1.4% to a pathetic 0.7% annualized rate. Turns out those initial estimates were a bit... optimistic, with downward revisions hitting consumer, business, and government spending plus exports—basically everything except disappointment, which exceeded expectations. Meanwhile, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge (core PCE) jumped 0.4% month-over-month and clocked in at 3.1% year-over-year, because why let a slowing economy get in the way of rising prices? Welcome to stagflation's warm-up act, folks.

In a nutshell, US consumer spending flatlined, Q4 growth got slashed in half to 0.7%, and inflation's still running at 3.1%—it's like stagflation ordered an Uber and it just pulled up to your house.

Jeffrey’s War…🍿

Another inspiring episode of geopolitics where other people fight, taxpayers pay...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypJQNoYTV-s

US consumer sentiment dropped to a three-month low in March, hitting 55.5 as Americans collectively realized that adding a war with Iran to their existing problems wasn't exactly a morale booster. The University of Michigan survey caught the perfect before-and-after snapshot: sentiment was actually improving before the airstrikes, then completely tanked during the nine days after—because nothing kills optimism quite like watching gas prices spike while your wallet's already on life support. Consumers now expect 3.4% inflation over the next year (unchanged, because why would anything get better?) and gas price expectations hit their highest level since 2022. Translation: Americans were already miserable about high costs and a fragile job market, and now they get to experience all of that plus $5 gas.

In a nutshell, US consumer sentiment was actually improving until the Iran airstrikes happened—then it face-planted to a three-month low as Americans realized adding a war to their existing inflation nightmare means paying $5 for gas and everything else more expensive sooner rather than later.

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 Oil doesn’t just fuel the global economy—it moves borders, rattles markets, and turns a single supply scare into a global shockwave. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/oil-the-ultimate-weapon-of-mass-disruption

In what is supposed to be a measured escalation of the Epic Fury peace initiative, the Warmonger-in-Chief announced Friday evening—thoughtfully timed aftermarket hours to preserve stability—that US Central Command had delivered Freedom to Kharg Island, which processes 90% of Iran's energy exports. The Supreme Leader emphasized the operation's remarkable restraint: The Protective Strike targeted only military assets, leaving energy infrastructure supposedly untouched—for now. Iran had previously declared such action a red line requiring Proportional Response against regional energy facilities, though the Western Malthusians clarified such warnings constitute Aggression while our Superior Firepower represents Peace.

The Iranian News Service confirmed receipt of fifteen Correctional Strikes targeting military infrastructure—air defence systems, naval facilities, airport control, and helicopter assets associated with the State Oil Company. The Commander's conditional offer—to preserve energy infrastructure provided commercial passage remains unobstructed—demonstrates Strategic Restraint. Regional partners and global markets have been duly notified of this Generous Framework. Tehran's insistence on imposing Consequences for the Defensive Coalition's actions suggests the Strait's temporary closure triggered by the City of London’s insurers will continue. This is Progress toward Resolution. All parties understand the terms.

As a reminder, five miles long and situated 15 to 20 miles off the mainland-Iranian coast, Kharg Island is essential to Iran's export of petroleum. Facilities there have continued to operate throughout the war, with at least 10 tankers hauling off nearly 19 million barrels since the US-Israeli surprise attack on Feb 28. Iran has, however, sought to add a small measure of export-facility diversification, by reopening energy exports at the Jask terminal, which is southeast of the Straight of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman.


https://mapcarta.com/12606110/Map

Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/oil-the-ultimate-weapon-of-mass-disruption-373

Because Operation Epic Fury's Tremendous Success, the Commander-in-Chief has extended a Voluntary Invitation to North Atlantic Terror Organization members and Asian puppet partners such as Japan and South Korea—celebrated for their Humanitarian Bombing Excellence—to join Freedom of Navigation Operations in the Strait. This Collaborative Partnership Opportunity allows Allied Nations to demonstrate Solidarity with the Zionist Coalition's evolving Ideological Mission, which has naturally progressed from Defensive Response to Democratic Liberation Effort. Participation is entirely Optional, though Cooperation proves Commitment to Universal Values. Involvement is Choice. Conscription is Invitation. Holy War is Secular Peace Initiative.

The reality is that ‘When the empire bombs for peace, the merchant seeks a different patron.’ Iran, having noted that BRICS partners prefer trade agreements over cruise missiles, now considers allowing "limited" tanker passage through the Strait—provided the oil is purchased in yuan rather than dollars, naturally. The ancient petrodollar system, where puppet Gulf nations recycled oil wealth into US Treasury bonds, encounters the reality that sanctioned nations discover alternative currencies with remarkable speed. China, ever pragmatic, has perfected the art of bartering infrastructure projects for Iranian crude, while India—desperate for LPG and LNG—secured passage after Modi emphasized the "unhindered transit of energy" in a Wednesday call with Tehran.

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-14-26?post-id=cmmpeuhdj000b3b6rkae4rtrr

As the master might say: "He who controls the chokepoint controls the price; he who bombs the chokepoint starves his own people."

In a heartwarming display of commitment to free speech and democratic values, America's favourite Gulf Arab allies—those sterling defenders of liberty—are arresting roughly 20 people, including a British tourist, for the heinous crime of filming Iranian missile attacks on Dubai. The 60-year-old faces up to two years in prison under UAE cybercrime laws that prohibit "endangering public security," a delightfully vague charge that apparently covers everything from posting original videos to merely resharing content already circulating online. After the US-Israeli war with Iran kicked off February 28th, videos of counterattacks flooded social media—until the freedom-loving petro-monarchies started their crackdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/12/british-tourist-among-20-charged-in-dubai-over-videos-of-iranian-missile-strikes