Since the last FOMC, it’s been obvious that even the Fed doesn’t buy the November CP-Lie—yet the minutes politely confirmed what everyone already knew: a deeply divided committee still arguing over whether weak hiring or sticky inflation is the bigger problem. Most officials still expect to cut rates—assuming inflation behaves—while a few prefer to sit on their hands “for some time,” and several who voted for a cut did so with visible discomfort. Translation: consensus by exhaustion, not conviction. The minutes also revealed the usual schizophrenia—cut rates to save jobs, but don’t cut too much or inflation might notice—and quietly acknowledged that reserves are now “ample,” teeing up Treasury purchases if needed.


https://www.scribd.com/document/974131757/FOMC-Minutes-20251210#download&from_embed

In a nutshell, the Fed doesn’t believe its own inflation data, can’t agree on what’s broken, is already preparing more liquidity—and markets are yawning as if this confusion were business as usual.

While everyone else was stockpiling champagne for New Year’s Eve, Tesla did what it does best when Wall Street clocks out: it quietly dropped a sales buzzkill.
In a rare public move, the company posted its own delivery estimates, hinting that Q4 deliveries may disappoint—about 422,850 vehicles, down 15% year-on-year and well below Bloomberg’s still-optimistic 440,907. A festive reminder that even electric dreams can run low on charge when traders are off duty.

Tesla’s sales skidded early in the year as factories were retooled for the redesigned Model Y—conveniently coinciding with Elon Musk’s cameo as a polarizing figure in the Donald Copperfield administration. Deliveries then spiked to a Q3 record as U.S. buyers rushed to front-run the expiry of the $7,500 EV tax credit, a sugar high Tesla tried to extend by rolling out sub-$40,000, stripped-down Model Y and Model 3 variants.
Even so, the company is heading for a second straight annual decline, with deliveries estimated at 1.6 million—down over 8% year-on-year—and its own three-year outlook now trailing Bloomberg consensus.

In a nutshell, Tesla rang in the New Year by quietly warning that its EV party is losing charge—flagging weaker Q4 deliveries, a post-subsidy sugar crash, and a second straight annual sales decline while Wall Street was busy popping champagne.

⏳ Last 24 Hours — Don’t Miss It

https://www.tiktok.com/@the.macro.butler/video/7589942445782174994

The clock is running out. In the final 24 hours, you can still lock in The Macro Butler Financial Academy at its discounted Jubilee Year price. This is your last chance to gain clear, cycle-driven macro insight, disciplined investment frameworks, and independent thinking—before the price resets.

👉 Enroll now before the window closes: https://themacrobutler.com/academy

A new year is never a blank page—it’s another turn in the cycle. History doesn’t move in straight lines; it moves in rhythms, where confidence is tested, institutions are stretched, and the comforting stories begin to crack. These moments have always been where illusion gives way to reality.

The global economy cannot be understood in silos—and neither can The Macro Butler. With readers across the world, this is a truly global conversation, united by a willingness to challenge narratives and focus on cycles, history, and first principles.

The years ahead will test economic, political, and social systems worldwide. Our commitment remains unchanged: to deliver clear, historically grounded analysis so you can navigate what lies ahead with foresight—not fear.

The Macro Butler and his team wish you peace, clarity, and the conviction to think independently as the next cycle unfolds.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/happy-new-year-to-investors-and-thinkers

While the West was still debating when to pop the New Year champagne, The Middle Kingdom December PMIs suddenly sprang back into “expansion,” as if growth could be summoned by calendar alone. A wise Confucius might remind us that a single warm day does not end winter. Beneath the headline surprise, the picture remains uneven: large manufacturers returned to growth, small firms slipped deeper into contraction, and construction activity surged—likely fuelled by a familiar year-end rush of government spending rather than organic demand. The rebound also diverges from weaker high-frequency indicators tied to production, consumption, and exports, casting doubt on the durability and breadth of any recovery. In short, the PMIs speak loudly, but not harmoniously, and their discordant tone suggests that policymakers will once again feel compelled to front-load fiscal and monetary easing after the Lunar New Year—because when balance is absent, stimulus is the default response.

In a nutshell, in the Middle Kingdom, one PMI swallow does not make a recovery—especially when large firms expand, small ones contract, and “growth” smells suspiciously like last-minute government stimulus.

✨ A New Year, Clearer Signals, Sharper Convictions ✨

As we step into the new year, I want to thank every subscriber for your trust, engagement, and independent thinking. In a world dominated by noise, narratives, and financial illusion, your commitment to understanding cycles, risks, and reality truly matters.

https://www.tiktok.com/@the.macro.butler/video/7590317641911373077

If you’ve been considering joining The Macro Butler Financial Academy, this is your final reminder: the discounted New Year price remains available until January 2 (Hong Kong Time). It’s the last chance to start the year equipped with clarity rather than consensus.

New year. New cycle. No excuses.
👉 Join now: https://themacrobutler.com/

Dear Investors,

Please find below the December 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Strategic Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-strategic-portfolio-7a0

Dear Investors,

Please find below the December 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler IG Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-ig-portfolio-december-4b1

Dear Investors,

Please find below the December 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Long/Short Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-longshort-portfolio-48b

10 Financial Forecasts for a Fiery 2026

Volatility is returning—and 2026 will reward those who understand cycles, not narratives.
In this Monthly Meditation, The Macro Butler lays out 10 clear, historically grounded forecasts to help you position ahead of a turbulent year.

🐎 Ride the Fire Horse—don’t fight it.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butlers-monthly-meditation-0a9

The Macro Butler rang in the New Year before most investors had even found their coffee—stopping by BFM 89.9 at dawn to kick off 2026 with a reality check on how portfolios should be positioned for the year ahead. 🕰📻

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-bfm-899-malaysia-02012026

Missed the launch discount? Don’t panic—markets reward patience, not FOMO 😏

You can still join The Macro Butler Financial Academy and upgrade your thinking at 👉 themacrobutler.com

Better late than financially illiterate. 📊🔥

https://www.tiktok.com/@the.macro.butler/video/7590712878118849812

The first edition of the year has been reduced to the bare essentials in ‘The Week That Was.’ Fear not: the full-strength, long-form of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter—once again generously stuffed with charts, cycles, and a healthy dose of sarcasm—returns next week. Until then, may your your resolutions be long-lived, and your portfolio spared any early-January indigestion.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-week-that-it-was-as-of-january

In 2025, BYD quietly did the unthinkable: it beat Tesla at the whole selling cars business, becoming the world’s top EV maker while Tesla logged a second straight year of falling deliveries. The Chinese giant won on price and scale, especially in Europe, while Tesla investors were gently reminded that the company is now valued less as an automaker and more as a promise—AI, robots, autonomy, and a future where cars may be optional. Energy storage profits helped soften the blow, and Elon Musk responded in classic form by pivoting toward robotaxis and “next big things.”

In short, BYD builds cars; Tesla builds narratives—and the market is still deciding which matters more.

https://www.tiktok.com/@the.macro.butler/video/7591054699726507285

While the second day of the new year will be remembered as the moment the Warmonger-in-Chief finally pulled the trigger on Venezuela, markets behaved as if the memo had been circulated well in advance.

Energy stocks surged on the very first trading day, confirming that—surprise, surprise—Saturday morning’s “unexpected” war was already fully penciled into the price action.


https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings?timeFrame=today

In the rhythm of cycles, those who listen to noise are often surprised, while those who observe balance are not.
Though absent from the forecasts of Wall Street’s finest, this trend is expected to define the fiery ride of the Fire Horse in 2026, with the Energy sector leading the S&P 500.

Read more by subscribing here:
https://themacrobutler.com/monthly-meditation/

Markets don’t react to headlines. They react to positioning.
While the crowd debated morality and politics, readers of The Macro Butler Monthly Meditation were already positioned for the ripple effects of the U.S. strike on Venezuela:
⚡️ Energy volatility
💰 Commodities repricing
🌍 Capital rotating—fast
This isn’t about cheering conflicts.
It’s about understanding second-order effects before they hit the tape.

https://youtube.com/shorts/3PFrm-KZ8_I?feature=share


If you prefer clarity over noise, cycles over narratives, and preparation over panic—
👉 Visit TheMacroButler.com
Think ahead. Act early. Stay solvent.