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As the world holds its breath for the year's final, riveting FOMC puppet show, the Treasury, in a staggering display of activity, managed to sell another $58 billion in three-year debt. The yield hit an exhilarating 3.614%—its highest since August!—and, in a victory that will surely be memorialized in bronze, it "stopped through" by a massive 0.8 basis points, extending its incomprehensible winning streak to four. Sleep well, financial world.

The overall demand for the $58 billion paper plunged, with the bid-to-cover ratio nose-diving from 3.850, though it miraculously landed 0.009 above the recent average—a true cause for celebration! However, the internal metrics were "more solid," meaning foreign buyers (Indirects) bailed the US out, soaking up a near-record 72.0% of the debt. Because international friends took the lot, the despised Dealers were left with a historically low 9.03%. In other words, the quality of demand was saved by a massive foreign subsidy, ensuring our local financial heroes don't have to carry too much of the debt burden.

In summary, this auction was "surprisingly steady" because a delightful majority of investors are apparently still clinging to the fairy tale that the Treasury bond—the supposed risk-free asset—remains safe, blissfully ignorant that the Educated Yet Idiots now governing the world have rendered nothing on this Earth truly free of risk.

Even while on mission in the city destined to replace NYC as the global financial epicenter, The Macro Butler took time to deliver another price outlook for Gold, Silver, and Copper on Asharq Bloomberg TV.

The world may be shifting East, but the ultimate authority on global commodities remains firmly with The Macro Butler.

The interview has been translated into Arabic.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-asharq-bloomberg-tv-0ba

Following the truly thrilling, yet ultimately tailing, 3-Year auction that kicked off our riveting FOMC week, the Treasury has once again graced us by selling another $39 billion in 10-Year paper.

The sale cleared at a breathtaking high yield of 4.175%—a truly monumental rise from November’s 4.068%, officially marking it the highest yield we’ve seen since the dizzying heights of August! And in a stunning display of predictability, the high yield priced precisely on the screws with the When Issued rate.

The demand was unequivocally "solid," with the Bid-to-Cover ratio soaring to 2.550 (up from 2.433) and achieving the dizzying heights of highest demand since September! Clearly, the confidence is contagious.

The internals were even more solid: foreign buyers, bless their hearts, stepped up dramatically, swallowing 70.2% of the debt—another spectacular record since, you guessed it, September. This foreign generosity, coupled with decent domestic institutional demand, meant our heroic Dealers were left holding a mere 8.8%.

In short: the auction was a ringing success because the heavy lifting was outsourced to overseas accounts, saving our domestic underwriters the inconvenience of carrying excessive government risk. Truly a perfectly executed ballet of debt issuance.

Overall, the outcome was once again a "surprisingly good auction," proving conclusively that most investors are still operating under a profound delusion: they simply have not grasped that in a world governed by the utterly predictable idiocy of the 'Educated Yet Idiots,' the supposed 'risk-free asset' is no more free of risk than a politician is free of ambition.

After a two-month data "hiatus," the BLS finally dropped its crucial JOLTS job report, and—surprise! —it was unexpectedly strong! Not for October, mind you, but for the previously unreported September data, which conveniently soared to a whopping 7.658 million openings (the highest since May!). This massive, delayed surge conveniently exceeded every single estimate from those savvy Bloomberg economists. Meanwhile, just to keep things interesting, the layoffs hit a 2023 high, mainly fuelled by the accommodation sector, while hiring politely declined. This whole mess is perfectly consistent with employers adjusting to the glorious higher-cost environment brought to you by insightful US trade policy and that wonderful, lingering economic uncertainty. Truly, a masterpiece of timely government data delivery and contradictory market signals.

In a nutshell, the BLS finally dumped two months of delayed JOLTS data, revealing a sudden, suspicious surge in job openings (driven mostly by healthcare) right alongside the highest layoff rate of 2023.

The esteemed National Bureau of Statistics reports that China's consumer price growth found modest footing in November, rising to 0.7% annually, thereby suggesting a gentle easing of deflationary pressures. However, the foundation remains soft. Though consumer prices gained, the enduring challenge is reflected in producer prices, which recorded their thirty-eighth consecutive month of decline (falling 2.2%). This persistent factory-gate deflation confirms that overcapacity and the lingering housing slump continue to impede the restoration of a robust economic equilibrium.

The discerning investor, recognizing the fierceness of China's economic competition, understands that the true harbinger of profit lies not in headline figures, but in the spread between Core CPI and Core PPI. With consumer prices demonstrating resilience (CPI rising) while producer costs continue their protracted decline (PPI falling), this pivotal spread has remained consistently positive and expanding since August 2022. This imbalance acts as a powerful, sustained tailwind for corporate margins. Thus, the evidence suggests a strong foundation for the continued re-rating of Chinese equities throughout 2026 and the subsequent years.

In a nutshell, despite China's persistent factory deflation and soft consumer prices, the widening spread between Core CPI and Core PPI is creating a powerful, sustained tailwind for corporate margins, signaling a strong re-rating opportunity for Chinese equities into 2026.

🤵 The Macro Butler Special Service 🤵

🌐 The Educated Yet Idiots not only turned the Fed into their personal ATM but also conveniently made it the fall guy for the business cycle’s inevitable twists. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/how-educated-yet-idiots-converted

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https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/how-educated-yet-idiots-converted-6ff

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The Macro Butler recently sat down with Christian White from Marbella Media for a discussion so big it required a wide-angle lens, aiming to fix the world one intellectual “pothole” at a time!

Together, we tackled the charming forces quietly reshaping the global order, including the colossal wealth gap (it’s so big, even Jeff Bezos needs a telescope to spot the working class), the increasingly sorry state of Europe’s wallet, which they’ve dubbed “The Continental Cooldown,” and the depressing fact that war has evolved from a last resort into a handy political power move for distracting everyone from the first two problems.

Go on, brew up that gourmet coffee (you deserve it!), sit back, and prepare to have your worldview gently elbowed.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-christian-white-04122025

While the mass-media bang their drums for yet another “liberation” adventure—this time eyeing Venezuela’s resources with the usual incense of democracy—some sages in the Washington swamp appear to have suddenly discovered clarity. Like Lao Tseu watching generals trip over their own swords, they whisper: “When a structure has outlived its purpose, let it go.” Thus comes the notion that the North Atlantic Terror Organization—NATO, that ancient Cold War relic—should finally be allowed to return to the dust. Why pour treasure into distant lands practicing their own flavour of socialism, when the path of wisdom says: “Defend your own house before lecturing your neighbor on feng shui”?

https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1998526052243746978

As Washington cranks up its warmongering theatrics against its latest boogeyman—Venezuela—the U.S. is now using the very tactics it loves to denounce. The FBI, Homeland Security, the Coast Guard, and the ever-eager Department of War proudly announced they’d seized a tanker carrying “sanctioned” Venezuelan and Iranian crude, a ship they’ve blacklisted for years for supposedly aiding “terror networks.” The operation unfolded just off Venezuela’s coast, wrapped in triumphant press releases about “security” and “ongoing investigations.” In reality, this is less about justice and more about protecting the oil barons orbiting the Warmonger-in-Chief—especially now that China, the usual buyer of this crude, has been dragged into the escalation. The U.S. increasingly resembles the very “terror states” it claims to defend the world from; the only difference is that its crusades always seem to make the right American pockets a little richer.

https://x.com/AGPamBondi/status/1998875795151024337

If anyone still needed proof that the AI bubble has reached peak absurdity and is ready to pop, here it is: Time has crowned the “Architects of AI” as its 2025 Person of the Year. Apparently, this was the year AI’s “full potential roared into view”—or, more accurately, the year hype finally drowned out common sense. Time insists on celebrating the people behind AI rather than the technology, framing them as the noble bringers of the “age of thinking machines.” The cover, styled after Lunch Atop a Skyscraper, lines up eight tech titans—Zuckerberg, Su, Musk, Huang, Altman, Hassabis, Amodei, and Fei-Fei Li—like they’re building the modern world rather than another hype cycle. Five of them are billionaires whose combined wealth (~$870 billion) has ballooned right alongside the AI mania.

https://www.axios.com/2025/12/11/time-person-of-the-year-2025-ai

Time has made symbolic choices before (Ebola Fighters in 2014, the PC in 1982). But this one? It reads less like recognition and more like a bright red warning sign flashing top of the bubble.