2pt
Race 5 Turf Paradise
Happy Chappy
3.0
&
2pt
Race 6 Turf Paradise
Ultimate
2.5
&
1pt double
Race 5 Turf Paradise
Happy Chappy
3.0
&
2pt
Race 6 Turf Paradise
Ultimate
2.5
&
1pt double
👍3🐳2🗿2❤1
Scratch that, colonial downs called off after the 1st race. Or at least all markets have been taken down. No official post / reasoning yet.
Bets out in an hour also then
Bets out in an hour also then
🐳1
Coming now..
Double
Best odds paddy / bf
(Lads/ coral just took down the market for one leg but that race starts within the hour so shouldn’t be long. Otherwise prices fairly general)
Double
Best odds paddy / bf
(Lads/ coral just took down the market for one leg but that race starts within the hour so shouldn’t be long. Otherwise prices fairly general)
🐳2👍1
Race 2 Sunland Park
Baja Boogie
1.9
&
Race 3 Turf Paradise
Lucky Burglar
7.5
&
1.5pt double
Baja Boogie
1.9
&
Race 3 Turf Paradise
Lucky Burglar
7.5
&
1.5pt double
🐳2👍1
Done until the late tracks. Potentially bets around 10pm when odds out
👍2🐳2
1st / 3rd on the double and 2nd / 3rd on the horses in the same race. Ouch
Honestly I’d suggest lowering stakes if you haven’t already. I don’t blame those who have stopped following either, it’s been half a year of breaking even.
Do I think the model is still profitable?
Yes it likely is.
However the edge has been depleted massively. Profit aside, we can see this in the CLV, while I’ve always been slightly profitable to BSP anyway. We just aren’t getting the consistency in market moves that we used to.
This model has been going for around 2 years now. Even with the last 6 months it’s been 2 years at 15% roi. Believe it or not 2 years is actually a very good life span for a model. Most markets adapt and remove edges quickly.
I’ve noticed there’s been a much bigger gap between best odds and the rest of the market lately. This just emphasises that the general market is adjusting its odds.
Don’t get me wrong, if we moved back to tipping mornings lines and standout prices we’d be back to big profits in no time.
But there’s little skill in that and you can just follow a steamers / movers bot that does the same thing.
On top of that, you’d be running a new account every 2 days. I’m much more interested in sustainable betting methods.
Honestly I’d suggest lowering stakes if you haven’t already. I don’t blame those who have stopped following either, it’s been half a year of breaking even.
Do I think the model is still profitable?
Yes it likely is.
However the edge has been depleted massively. Profit aside, we can see this in the CLV, while I’ve always been slightly profitable to BSP anyway. We just aren’t getting the consistency in market moves that we used to.
This model has been going for around 2 years now. Even with the last 6 months it’s been 2 years at 15% roi. Believe it or not 2 years is actually a very good life span for a model. Most markets adapt and remove edges quickly.
I’ve noticed there’s been a much bigger gap between best odds and the rest of the market lately. This just emphasises that the general market is adjusting its odds.
Don’t get me wrong, if we moved back to tipping mornings lines and standout prices we’d be back to big profits in no time.
But there’s little skill in that and you can just follow a steamers / movers bot that does the same thing.
On top of that, you’d be running a new account every 2 days. I’m much more interested in sustainable betting methods.
👍6😁1🤯1🐳1
I’m working on an AI powered machine learning software for racing data behind the scenes that should improve the capabilities of this model.
I’m juggling this with developing an app. So if I’m honest, do I want to continue for a now decreased, let’s say 10% ROI? Not really, I’d prefer to just take a break, revamp the model
Finding trusted tipsters and models can be hard, so I understand the struggle. I’ve been around years and people trust that I actually bet on everything I tip high stakes. So you won’t lose much with me.
However with the decreased expected returns, I’m sure you can find other trusted tipsters / models that can get these sort of numbers. It’s not spectacular anymore.
I’m juggling this with developing an app. So if I’m honest, do I want to continue for a now decreased, let’s say 10% ROI? Not really, I’d prefer to just take a break, revamp the model
Finding trusted tipsters and models can be hard, so I understand the struggle. I’ve been around years and people trust that I actually bet on everything I tip high stakes. So you won’t lose much with me.
However with the decreased expected returns, I’m sure you can find other trusted tipsters / models that can get these sort of numbers. It’s not spectacular anymore.
😁2🐳1
Sports betting is still my primary income. I still have to stake 6 figs a month, to get an income.
I will still be occasionally betting on the really high EV US bets, usually taking the best odds. (I will likely advise a high min price)
If I do I’ll share in here
Along with any race opinions
I will use the same tracking system, just note the date this changed.
I will still be occasionally betting on the really high EV US bets, usually taking the best odds. (I will likely advise a high min price)
If I do I’ll share in here
Along with any race opinions
I will use the same tracking system, just note the date this changed.
👍11😁1🐳1
Otherwise you may just want to wait until future updates. Follow my Twitter
I’m hoping in the next 2 months, we should have a new model with some back tested results. Stay posted
I’m hoping in the next 2 months, we should have a new model with some back tested results. Stay posted
👍7❤6🤝3🐳2😁1