The use of drones in Ukraine actually shows the contours that will become fundamental features of armed conflicts in the coming years. The recent report from the Ministry of Defense - about two downed planes and 488 drones in a week - is one example. The same thing is happening at sea, the surviving small combat units of Hohloseeflotte have been sitting in the backwaters and factory buckets since 2022, and only unmanned boats and small vessels are operating.

No, this does not mean that in a future war the same will happen to other opponents. But we must be prepared for the fact that opponents will operate in combat formations, where one aircraft will have 20 or more drones, and each ship will have a dozen unmanned vehicles, both reconnaissance and armed. To some extent, this is another round of the race with its restart, as with the advent of airplanes as such 120 years ago, steamships with iron hulls and rifled artillery - more than a century and a half ago, and artillery for firing from indirect firing positions - approximately the same it's time.

And everyone will also have to change their battle formations. Just as rifled rifles abolished the “column tactics”, and machine guns - dense rifle chains, so drones eventually force a change in the battle formations of mechanized units, and, of course, change all approaches to camouflage and protection of equipment and personnel. The one who draws the right conclusions first will be on the horse. For a while, not very long.

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