📊 Weekly Outlook Aug 12-19:
News/Sentiment:
- Market caution towards jobless claims, retail sales, CPI etc.
- Expectation of continuation of disinflation on CPI on Wednesday but more emphasis on labor market data instead of inflationary data
- Broad concerns over FEDs delayed rate cuts 🤔
- Markets closely watching Walmart, and HomeDepot earnings reports
- Evercore base case 6000 SPY EOY 📈
📅 Events This week:
- Tue:
- 🇬🇧UK: Unemployment
- 🇺🇸US: PPI,
- 🇪🇺EUR: Unemployment Rate
- Earnings: Home Depot
- Wed:
- 🇬🇧UK: CPI, PPI
- 🇪🇺EU: GDP
- 🇺🇸US: CPI
- 🇨🇳CNY: Unemployment, Industrial production
- Thu:
- 🇬🇧UK: GDP
- 🇺🇸US: Jobless claims, Retail sales, Philly Fed employment, industrial production, inventories
- 🇨🇳CNY: CPI
- Earnings: Walmart, Deer&Company
😬 Risk Appetite:
• Truflation: 1.5%
• Market fear/greed = 24 Extreme Fear
• Market breadth = extreme fear
• Put/call = extreme fear
• Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
• AAII sentiment: 3% off 1 year bullish average
• Crypto fear/greed = 25 extreme fear
• High yield bond premium = 3.49% (large decrease)
• High yield effective yield = 7.39% (large decrease)
Market Breadth:
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 50% (Decrease from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 42% (Decrease from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 25% (decrease from last week)
- NASDAQ new highs - new lows = -46
- SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows = -67
- SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 51 ; Weekly 6
Other:
Fed rate monitor tool = 52% probability of 25bps cut, 48% for 50bps cut
News/Sentiment:
- Market caution towards jobless claims, retail sales, CPI etc.
- Expectation of continuation of disinflation on CPI on Wednesday but more emphasis on labor market data instead of inflationary data
- Broad concerns over FEDs delayed rate cuts 🤔
- Markets closely watching Walmart, and HomeDepot earnings reports
- Evercore base case 6000 SPY EOY 📈
📅 Events This week:
- Tue:
- 🇬🇧UK: Unemployment
- 🇺🇸US: PPI,
- 🇪🇺EUR: Unemployment Rate
- Earnings: Home Depot
- Wed:
- 🇬🇧UK: CPI, PPI
- 🇪🇺EU: GDP
- 🇺🇸US: CPI
- 🇨🇳CNY: Unemployment, Industrial production
- Thu:
- 🇬🇧UK: GDP
- 🇺🇸US: Jobless claims, Retail sales, Philly Fed employment, industrial production, inventories
- 🇨🇳CNY: CPI
- Earnings: Walmart, Deer&Company
😬 Risk Appetite:
• Truflation: 1.5%
• Market fear/greed = 24 Extreme Fear
• Market breadth = extreme fear
• Put/call = extreme fear
• Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
• AAII sentiment: 3% off 1 year bullish average
• Crypto fear/greed = 25 extreme fear
• High yield bond premium = 3.49% (large decrease)
• High yield effective yield = 7.39% (large decrease)
Market Breadth:
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 50% (Decrease from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 42% (Decrease from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 25% (decrease from last week)
- NASDAQ new highs - new lows = -46
- SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows = -67
- SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 51 ; Weekly 6
Other:
Fed rate monitor tool = 52% probability of 25bps cut, 48% for 50bps cut
SolenyaResearch pinned «📊 Weekly Outlook Aug 12-19: News/Sentiment: - Market caution towards jobless claims, retail sales, CPI etc. - Expectation of continuation of disinflation on CPI on Wednesday but more emphasis on labor market data instead of inflationary data - Broad concerns…»
📊 Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 12-19:
#DXY hasnt moved much and is still in a corrective phase before more downside (likely if softening economic data continues).
Target of 97 remains
#SPY is still showing signs of a corrective phase - which is not a bad thing. We had a retest of 200 D MA last week. But a continuation of the correction can bring us to 4800. Labor market and CPI data will play a big factor on whether 200 D MA is broken or not.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500USD/kZFDOGmc-Weekly-Outlook-SPY-Aug12-19/
#USOIL still bearish and in a long corrective phase. Weakening labor market data paired with production cuts will continue to lower oil demand globally. Targets remain the same at $61
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/Rhsm5mHi-Weekly-outlook-aug12-19-USOIL/
Is #BTC out of the woodwork yet? Not quite
Last week I posted my macro view on BTC. Lots of data showed evidence of a strong Q4 for BTC. However, we are still only mid Q3. Its quite early and seasonally speaking, there is usually rotation from large caps into smaller caps in August before an abrupt sell off in September. With lots of uncertainty looming about FED rates, elections etc. I think its too soon to suggest we go up only from here on BTC.
On shorter time frames, the corrective phase we entered in spring should be coming to a close. However, is 50k the end of the 'C' wave impulse? Could be anyone's guess. Preferably,I'd like to see bullish divergence before we march higher
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/hFGwCEmm-Weekly-Outlook-Aug12-19-BTC/
#ETH chart looks quite awful. I'd avoid until we have weekly closes back above resistance.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSDT/hMyxfzVC-Weekly-Outlook-Aug12-19-ETH/
#DXY hasnt moved much and is still in a corrective phase before more downside (likely if softening economic data continues).
Target of 97 remains
#SPY is still showing signs of a corrective phase - which is not a bad thing. We had a retest of 200 D MA last week. But a continuation of the correction can bring us to 4800. Labor market and CPI data will play a big factor on whether 200 D MA is broken or not.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500USD/kZFDOGmc-Weekly-Outlook-SPY-Aug12-19/
#USOIL still bearish and in a long corrective phase. Weakening labor market data paired with production cuts will continue to lower oil demand globally. Targets remain the same at $61
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/Rhsm5mHi-Weekly-outlook-aug12-19-USOIL/
Is #BTC out of the woodwork yet? Not quite
Last week I posted my macro view on BTC. Lots of data showed evidence of a strong Q4 for BTC. However, we are still only mid Q3. Its quite early and seasonally speaking, there is usually rotation from large caps into smaller caps in August before an abrupt sell off in September. With lots of uncertainty looming about FED rates, elections etc. I think its too soon to suggest we go up only from here on BTC.
On shorter time frames, the corrective phase we entered in spring should be coming to a close. However, is 50k the end of the 'C' wave impulse? Could be anyone's guess. Preferably,I'd like to see bullish divergence before we march higher
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/hFGwCEmm-Weekly-Outlook-Aug12-19-BTC/
#ETH chart looks quite awful. I'd avoid until we have weekly closes back above resistance.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSDT/hMyxfzVC-Weekly-Outlook-Aug12-19-ETH/
TradingView
Weekly Outlook SPY Aug12-19 for OANDA:SPX500USD by SolenyaResearch — TradingView
SPY is still showing signs of a corrective phase - which is not a bad thing. We had a retest of 200 D MA last week. But a continuation of the correction can bring us to 4800. Labor market and CPI data will play a big factor on whether 200 D MA is broken or…
SolenyaResearch
Which Alt coin charts would you like to see?
TradingView
$CLORE Nearing accumulation zone for MEXC:CLOREUSDT by SolenyaResearch — TradingView
$CLORE AI is approaching an accumulation zone but no guarantees this doesnt go to 0. Hold spot if you really believe in the project - otherwise stay away. Disclaimer: I dont have any background knowledge of this company.
SolenyaResearch
📊 Weekly Outlook Aug 12-19: News/Sentiment: - Market caution towards jobless claims, retail sales, CPI etc. - Expectation of continuation of disinflation on CPI on Wednesday but more emphasis on labor market data instead of inflationary data - Broad concerns…
📊 Weekly Outlook August 19-23:
Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
News/Sentiment: 📊
• Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
• Global PMI data release on Thursday hints at global economic health
• Citi expects 25bps in September and 25bps in November
• Fed minutes from July FOMC to be released on Wednesday
• Labor market data is higher priority than inflation data to determine Fed rate cuts
Events This Week: 📅
Mon:
• 🇪🇺EUR: CPI, German PPI
• 💸 Earnings: Palo Alto ($PANW), Estee Lauder ($EL)
Tue:
• 🇨🇦CAD: CPI
• 🇯🇵JPY: Exports, trade balance
• 💸 Earnings: Lowes $LOW
Wed:
• 🇺🇸US: Fed minutes FOMC, 20-year bond auction
• 💸 Earnings: Tj Maxx $TJX, Target $TGT
Thu:
• Global PMI data
• 🇫🇷FR: Manufacturing/services PMI
• 🇩🇪GER: Manufacturing/services PMI
• 💸 Earnings: Dollar Tree $DLTR
Fri:
• 🇺🇸US: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole at 10am ET, Housing data
Risk Appetite: 😬
• Truflation: 1.42%
• Market fear/greed = 40
• Market breadth = neutral
• Put/call = greed
• Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear RiskAppetite
• AAII sentiment: 5% above historical bullish average
• Crypto fear/greed = 28 fear
• High yield bond premium = 3.29% (large decrease)
• High yield effective yield = 7.15% (large decrease)
Market Breadth: 📊
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 58% (increase from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 57% (increase from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 50% (substantial increase from last week)
• NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 38
• SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-80
• SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 68 ; Weekly 19
Other: 📊
• Fed rate monitor tool = 77% probability of 25 bps cut, 23% of 50 BPS cut
Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
News/Sentiment: 📊
• Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts
• Global PMI data release on Thursday hints at global economic health
• Citi expects 25bps in September and 25bps in November
• Fed minutes from July FOMC to be released on Wednesday
• Labor market data is higher priority than inflation data to determine Fed rate cuts
Events This Week: 📅
Mon:
• 🇪🇺EUR: CPI, German PPI
• 💸 Earnings: Palo Alto ($PANW), Estee Lauder ($EL)
Tue:
• 🇨🇦CAD: CPI
• 🇯🇵JPY: Exports, trade balance
• 💸 Earnings: Lowes $LOW
Wed:
• 🇺🇸US: Fed minutes FOMC, 20-year bond auction
• 💸 Earnings: Tj Maxx $TJX, Target $TGT
Thu:
• Global PMI data
• 🇫🇷FR: Manufacturing/services PMI
• 🇩🇪GER: Manufacturing/services PMI
• 💸 Earnings: Dollar Tree $DLTR
Fri:
• 🇺🇸US: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole at 10am ET, Housing data
Risk Appetite: 😬
• Truflation: 1.42%
• Market fear/greed = 40
• Market breadth = neutral
• Put/call = greed
• Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear RiskAppetite
• AAII sentiment: 5% above historical bullish average
• Crypto fear/greed = 28 fear
• High yield bond premium = 3.29% (large decrease)
• High yield effective yield = 7.15% (large decrease)
Market Breadth: 📊
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 58% (increase from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 57% (increase from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 50% (substantial increase from last week)
• NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 38
• SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows =-80
• SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 68 ; Weekly 19
Other: 📊
• Fed rate monitor tool = 77% probability of 25 bps cut, 23% of 50 BPS cut
SolenyaResearch pinned «📊 Weekly Outlook August 19-23: Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts News/Sentiment: 📊 • Market focused on Jackson Hole retreat on Friday for clues on rate cuts • Global PMI data release on Thursday hints at global economic…»
SolenyaResearch
📊 Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 12-19: #DXY hasnt moved much and is still in a corrective phase before more downside (likely if softening economic data continues). Target of 97 remains #SPY is still showing signs of a corrective phase - which is not a bad…
📊 Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 19-23:
#DXY still grinding lower. Nothing much has changed since last week. Global PMI data and subsequent labor market data in UK, France, Germany, USA will have an impact on fed cut expectations and by proxy risk assets including the dollar.
The Annual Jackson Hole meeting is this week as well. Surely there will be some volatility. My best guess is Powell restating the fact that the fight against inflation is almost over and focus on labor market data will be prioritized going forward to initiate the 'soft landing'
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/HQ8B2u29-Weekly-Outlook-Aug-19-23/
Within 2 weeks since the yen unwinding, we are just a couple percentage points off the highs. The vast volatility has me a bit suspicious. Since we are back above the cloud, confirms bullish continuation, however I suspect this week we might range around 5600 on #SPY due to heavy news flow this week.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500USD/lZo1AIUa-Weekly-outlook-Aug-19-23-SPY/
Seems like USOIL is closely following DXY most likely due to concerns of global economic growth.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/1T5yKIx7-Weekly-outlook-Aug-19-23-USOIL/
#BTC still lagging risk assets in tradfi markets. Not bullish again until daily closes above the cloud. Still ranging. Not particularly interested here
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/YIBd1tpM-Weekly-Outlook-Aug-19-23-BTC/
#ETH is still struggling to pass resistance. Must be patient
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSDT/xofuMnWK-Weekly-Outlook-Aug-19-23-ETH/
#DXY still grinding lower. Nothing much has changed since last week. Global PMI data and subsequent labor market data in UK, France, Germany, USA will have an impact on fed cut expectations and by proxy risk assets including the dollar.
The Annual Jackson Hole meeting is this week as well. Surely there will be some volatility. My best guess is Powell restating the fact that the fight against inflation is almost over and focus on labor market data will be prioritized going forward to initiate the 'soft landing'
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/HQ8B2u29-Weekly-Outlook-Aug-19-23/
Within 2 weeks since the yen unwinding, we are just a couple percentage points off the highs. The vast volatility has me a bit suspicious. Since we are back above the cloud, confirms bullish continuation, however I suspect this week we might range around 5600 on #SPY due to heavy news flow this week.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500USD/lZo1AIUa-Weekly-outlook-Aug-19-23-SPY/
Seems like USOIL is closely following DXY most likely due to concerns of global economic growth.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/1T5yKIx7-Weekly-outlook-Aug-19-23-USOIL/
#BTC still lagging risk assets in tradfi markets. Not bullish again until daily closes above the cloud. Still ranging. Not particularly interested here
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/YIBd1tpM-Weekly-Outlook-Aug-19-23-BTC/
#ETH is still struggling to pass resistance. Must be patient
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSDT/xofuMnWK-Weekly-Outlook-Aug-19-23-ETH/
TradingView
Weekly Outlook Aug 19-23 for TVC:DXY by SolenyaResearch — TradingView
TVC:DXY still grinding lower. Nothing much has changed since last week. Global PMI data and subsequent labor market data in UK, France, Germany, USA will have an impact on fed cut expectations and by proxy risk assets including the dollar.
The Annual Jackson…
The Annual Jackson…
SolenyaResearch pinned «📊 Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 19-23: #DXY still grinding lower. Nothing much has changed since last week. Global PMI data and subsequent labor market data in UK, France, Germany, USA will have an impact on fed cut expectations and by proxy risk assets including…»
Forwarded from Cointelegraph
Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
🇺🇸 Fed Chair Jerome Powell announces that "the time has come" and "there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2% inflation while maintaining a strong labor market."
📊 Weekly Outlook August 26-30:
Market focused on labor market data and Fed rate cuts 📊
News/Sentiment: 📊
• Uncertainty over 25 bps or 50 bps cut
• High focus on labor market (PCE data on Friday)
• Fed funds futures market is pricing in 100 BPS of cuts by EOY
• Market anticipating lower than usual expectation for NVDA earnings
Events This Week: 📅
Mon:
• 🇺🇸US: Durable Goods, Fed GDPNow
Tue:
• 🇩🇪GER: GDP
• 🇺🇸US: CB Consumer confidence, 2 year note auction
Wed:
• 🇺🇸US: 5 year note auction
• 💸 Earnings: NVDA
Thu:
• 🇺🇸US: Jobless claims, GDP
• 🇨🇳CNY: CPI
• 💸 Earnings: DG, ULTA, CPB, LULU
Fri:
• 🇪🇺EUR: CPI
• 🇺🇸US: PCE, Core PCE
Risk Appetite: 😬
• Truflation: 1.47%
• Market fear/greed = 54
• Market breadth = extreme greed
• Put/call = greed
• Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
• AAII sentiment: 1% off 1 year bullish high
• Crypto fear/greed = 55 greed
• High yield bond premium = 3.21%
• High yield effective yield = 7% (slight decrease)
Market Breadth: 📊
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 61% (increase from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 67% (increase from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 77% (increase from last week)
• NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 114
• SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows = 28
• SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 98 ; Weekly 59
Other: 📊
• Fed rate monitor tool = 30% chance of 50 BPS cut, 70% chance of 25 BPS cut
Market focused on labor market data and Fed rate cuts 📊
News/Sentiment: 📊
• Uncertainty over 25 bps or 50 bps cut
• High focus on labor market (PCE data on Friday)
• Fed funds futures market is pricing in 100 BPS of cuts by EOY
• Market anticipating lower than usual expectation for NVDA earnings
Events This Week: 📅
Mon:
• 🇺🇸US: Durable Goods, Fed GDPNow
Tue:
• 🇩🇪GER: GDP
• 🇺🇸US: CB Consumer confidence, 2 year note auction
Wed:
• 🇺🇸US: 5 year note auction
• 💸 Earnings: NVDA
Thu:
• 🇺🇸US: Jobless claims, GDP
• 🇨🇳CNY: CPI
• 💸 Earnings: DG, ULTA, CPB, LULU
Fri:
• 🇪🇺EUR: CPI
• 🇺🇸US: PCE, Core PCE
Risk Appetite: 😬
• Truflation: 1.47%
• Market fear/greed = 54
• Market breadth = extreme greed
• Put/call = greed
• Junk bond vs investment grade = extreme fear
• AAII sentiment: 1% off 1 year bullish high
• Crypto fear/greed = 55 greed
• High yield bond premium = 3.21%
• High yield effective yield = 7% (slight decrease)
Market Breadth: 📊
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 200D MA: = 61% (increase from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 50D MA: = 67% (increase from last week)
• Percentage of $SPX stocks above 20D MA: = 77% (increase from last week)
• NASDAQ new highs - new lows = 114
• SPY 52 week highs - 52 week lows = 28
• SPY New highs - New lows = Monthly 98 ; Weekly 59
Other: 📊
• Fed rate monitor tool = 30% chance of 50 BPS cut, 70% chance of 25 BPS cut
SolenyaResearch pinned «📊 Weekly Outlook August 26-30: Market focused on labor market data and Fed rate cuts 📊 News/Sentiment: 📊 • Uncertainty over 25 bps or 50 bps cut • High focus on labor market (PCE data on Friday) • Fed funds futures market is pricing in 100 BPS of cuts by…»
SolenyaResearch
📊 Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 19-23: #DXY still grinding lower. Nothing much has changed since last week. Global PMI data and subsequent labor market data in UK, France, Germany, USA will have an impact on fed cut expectations and by proxy risk assets including…
📊 Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 26-30:
We're expecting some exciting market movements this week. Here's what you need to know:
#DXY is still falling as forecasted, but a bullish divergence is forming on daily charts. Consolidation above 100 levels is possible. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/jhqlFy2L-Weekly-outlook-August-26-30-DXY 📉
#SPY pricing in Fed cuts, consolidation expected until Friday's PCE numbers. Trend still bullish, but uncertainty around Fed's move. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500USD/aJ7I4iJp-Weekly-outlook-August-26-30-SPY/ 📊
#USOIL breakout possible from ascending triangle, but depends on geopolitical tensions. If there's no escalation, $67 oil still on the table. [Weekly outlook chart for USOIL: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/4NPVpb6d-Weekly-outlook-August-26-30-USOIL/ 💡
#BTC traders should exercise caution due to mixed technical and an unfavorable Risk/Reward ratio. It's best to wait for a breakout above $70k. Consolidation may last for months, so patience is key.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/VhVnTjgg-Weekly-outlook-August-26-30-BTC/🙏
#ETH is looking more bearish, struggling to break resistance. If $BTC is rejected from $70k again, expect $ETH to test $2k or lower.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSDT/B2oBIzGM-Weekly-outlook-August-26-30-ETH 🚨
We're expecting some exciting market movements this week. Here's what you need to know:
#DXY is still falling as forecasted, but a bullish divergence is forming on daily charts. Consolidation above 100 levels is possible. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/jhqlFy2L-Weekly-outlook-August-26-30-DXY 📉
#SPY pricing in Fed cuts, consolidation expected until Friday's PCE numbers. Trend still bullish, but uncertainty around Fed's move. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500USD/aJ7I4iJp-Weekly-outlook-August-26-30-SPY/ 📊
#USOIL breakout possible from ascending triangle, but depends on geopolitical tensions. If there's no escalation, $67 oil still on the table. [Weekly outlook chart for USOIL: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/4NPVpb6d-Weekly-outlook-August-26-30-USOIL/ 💡
#BTC traders should exercise caution due to mixed technical and an unfavorable Risk/Reward ratio. It's best to wait for a breakout above $70k. Consolidation may last for months, so patience is key.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/VhVnTjgg-Weekly-outlook-August-26-30-BTC/🙏
#ETH is looking more bearish, struggling to break resistance. If $BTC is rejected from $70k again, expect $ETH to test $2k or lower.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSDT/B2oBIzGM-Weekly-outlook-August-26-30-ETH 🚨
TradingView
Weekly outlook August 26-30 $DXY for TVC:DXY by SolenyaResearch — TradingView
TVC:DXY is still falling as per the forecast. However, bullish divergence is forming on the daily. This leaves more room for consolidation above 100 levels. On the weekly, TVC:DXY is still on the downtrend
📊 Weekly Outlook: September 2-6 📊
Market News & Sentiment 📰
- BCA research warns of AI sector slowdown impacting stock market more than economy 🤖- Labor market weakness expected to continue 💼
- Fed blackout period begins after September 6 🗣️
- Market anticipating 25bps rate cut in September 📉
- Analysts forecast 2 more ECB rate cuts by year-end 📊
Events This Week 📅
- Monday: 🇬🇧 UK Manufacturing PMI 📊
- Tuesday:
🇺🇸 US Manufacturing PMI, Fed GDP Now 📊
- Wednesday:
🇪🇺 EU Composite PMI, Services PMI 📊
🇨🇦 CAD Interest Rate Decision 📈
🇺🇸 US Job Openings, Beige Book 📊
Earnings: Dollar Tree 📊
- Thursday:
🇺🇸 US Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet 📊
- Friday:
🇪🇺 EU GDP 📊
🇺🇸 US Payroll Data, Participation Rate, Unemployment 📊
Earnings: Kroger 📊
Risk Appetite 🤔
- Truflation: 1.55% 🔥
- Market Fear/Greed Index: 63 (neutral) 📊
- Market Breadth: Extreme Greed 🚀
- Put/Call Ratio: Neutral 📊
- Junk Bond vs Investment Grade: Fear 😬
- AAII Sentiment: 2% off 1-year bullish high 📈
- Crypto Fear/Greed Index: 28 (Fear) 😨
- High Yield Bond Premium: 3.15% (slight decrease) ⬇️
- High Yield Effective Yield: 7.8% (slight increase) ⬆️
Market Breadth 📈
- SPX stocks above 200D MA: 62% (increase from last week) 📈
- SPX stocks above 50D MA: 66% (increase from last week) 📈
- SPX stocks above 20D MA: 79% (substantial increase from last week) 🚀
- NASDAQ new highs - new lows: 61 📊
- SPY 52-week highs - 52-week lows: -7 📊
- SPY New highs - New lows: Monthly 114, Weekly 93 📊
Other 📊
- Fed Rate Monitor Tool: 70% probability of 25bps, 30% probability of 50bps 📊
Market News & Sentiment 📰
- BCA research warns of AI sector slowdown impacting stock market more than economy 🤖- Labor market weakness expected to continue 💼
- Fed blackout period begins after September 6 🗣️
- Market anticipating 25bps rate cut in September 📉
- Analysts forecast 2 more ECB rate cuts by year-end 📊
Events This Week 📅
- Monday: 🇬🇧 UK Manufacturing PMI 📊
- Tuesday:
🇺🇸 US Manufacturing PMI, Fed GDP Now 📊
- Wednesday:
🇪🇺 EU Composite PMI, Services PMI 📊
🇨🇦 CAD Interest Rate Decision 📈
🇺🇸 US Job Openings, Beige Book 📊
Earnings: Dollar Tree 📊
- Thursday:
🇺🇸 US Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet 📊
- Friday:
🇪🇺 EU GDP 📊
🇺🇸 US Payroll Data, Participation Rate, Unemployment 📊
Earnings: Kroger 📊
Risk Appetite 🤔
- Truflation: 1.55% 🔥
- Market Fear/Greed Index: 63 (neutral) 📊
- Market Breadth: Extreme Greed 🚀
- Put/Call Ratio: Neutral 📊
- Junk Bond vs Investment Grade: Fear 😬
- AAII Sentiment: 2% off 1-year bullish high 📈
- Crypto Fear/Greed Index: 28 (Fear) 😨
- High Yield Bond Premium: 3.15% (slight decrease) ⬇️
- High Yield Effective Yield: 7.8% (slight increase) ⬆️
Market Breadth 📈
- SPX stocks above 200D MA: 62% (increase from last week) 📈
- SPX stocks above 50D MA: 66% (increase from last week) 📈
- SPX stocks above 20D MA: 79% (substantial increase from last week) 🚀
- NASDAQ new highs - new lows: 61 📊
- SPY 52-week highs - 52-week lows: -7 📊
- SPY New highs - New lows: Monthly 114, Weekly 93 📊
Other 📊
- Fed Rate Monitor Tool: 70% probability of 25bps, 30% probability of 50bps 📊
SolenyaResearch
📊 Weekly Outlook Charts Aug 26-30: We're expecting some exciting market movements this week. Here's what you need to know: #DXY is still falling as forecasted, but a bullish divergence is forming on daily charts. Consolidation above 100 levels is possible.…
📊 Weekly Outlook Charts Sep 2-6:
🚨Market Breadth is flashing warning signs, with MMMTH, MMMFI, and MMMTW indicators suggesting a potential rotation out of risk. When combined with other indicators such as market fear/greed being neutral, AAII sentiment being 2% off its 1 year bullish high, its likely we will see a rotation out of risk such as crypto - paving a short opportunity for risky assets in crypto (political tokens, meme tokens etc)
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/MMTH/pJU7vnfN-Weekly-Outlook-Sep-2-6-Breadth-Indicators/
📉 #DXY retest of trend line on broad market pullbacks/weakness. Bearish continuation expected until EOY. Short term upside, longer term downside. 96 on DXY still on the table.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/4pTVlZWb-Weekly-Outlook-Sep-2-6-DXY/
📈 #SPY breadth is peaking on the 200, 50, and 20 D (see market breadth above)
When the market is running low on breadth, there will be some rotation or correction. Selling expensive stocks for cheaper ones (most likely cyclical's) will cause some selling pressure on the bigger names like NVDA, AAPL etc. Expect sidways choppiness for the majority of the market.
Ichimoku still indicating bullish continuation. Q4 will be good. Target at 6000 remains.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500USD/7EYdP8gZ-Weekly-Outlook-Sep-2-6-SPY/
⛽️ #USOIL staring its trend toward $61 oil as expected. It would have to be an alarming geopolitical situation to turn the course of OIL back up
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/VpcguBag-Weekly-outlook-Sep2-6-USOIL/
⚠️ #BTC bulls be very cautious here!
Bear case:
1. SPY breadth running out of steem
2. SPY seasonal weakness in September
3. BTC is below 20 W EMA, 50/200 D MA bearish cross
4. BTC Weekly close below the ichimoku cloud.
Still possible for a 70k retest at trendline, but Bear case outweighs the bull base
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/SAr8So4T-Weekly-outlook-sep-2-6-BTC/
📉 #ETH still lagging behind. Alts in general will enjoy a beating as BTC chops/declines.
2k retest is on the horizon.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSDT/dTUsNUU5-Weekly-outlook-Sep-2-6-ETH/
🚨Market Breadth is flashing warning signs, with MMMTH, MMMFI, and MMMTW indicators suggesting a potential rotation out of risk. When combined with other indicators such as market fear/greed being neutral, AAII sentiment being 2% off its 1 year bullish high, its likely we will see a rotation out of risk such as crypto - paving a short opportunity for risky assets in crypto (political tokens, meme tokens etc)
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/MMTH/pJU7vnfN-Weekly-Outlook-Sep-2-6-Breadth-Indicators/
📉 #DXY retest of trend line on broad market pullbacks/weakness. Bearish continuation expected until EOY. Short term upside, longer term downside. 96 on DXY still on the table.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/4pTVlZWb-Weekly-Outlook-Sep-2-6-DXY/
📈 #SPY breadth is peaking on the 200, 50, and 20 D (see market breadth above)
When the market is running low on breadth, there will be some rotation or correction. Selling expensive stocks for cheaper ones (most likely cyclical's) will cause some selling pressure on the bigger names like NVDA, AAPL etc. Expect sidways choppiness for the majority of the market.
Ichimoku still indicating bullish continuation. Q4 will be good. Target at 6000 remains.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500USD/7EYdP8gZ-Weekly-Outlook-Sep-2-6-SPY/
⛽️ #USOIL staring its trend toward $61 oil as expected. It would have to be an alarming geopolitical situation to turn the course of OIL back up
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/VpcguBag-Weekly-outlook-Sep2-6-USOIL/
⚠️ #BTC bulls be very cautious here!
Bear case:
1. SPY breadth running out of steem
2. SPY seasonal weakness in September
3. BTC is below 20 W EMA, 50/200 D MA bearish cross
4. BTC Weekly close below the ichimoku cloud.
Still possible for a 70k retest at trendline, but Bear case outweighs the bull base
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/SAr8So4T-Weekly-outlook-sep-2-6-BTC/
📉 #ETH still lagging behind. Alts in general will enjoy a beating as BTC chops/declines.
2k retest is on the horizon.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSDT/dTUsNUU5-Weekly-outlook-Sep-2-6-ETH/
TradingView
Weekly Outlook Sep 2-6 (Breadth Indicators) for INDEX:MMTH by SolenyaResearch — TradingView
In the top chart we have INDEX:MMTH which shows how many stocks are above their 200 D MA expressed as a percentage. When 70% or more of stocks are above their 200 D MA, it can be seen as over exuberance which can lead to a short term decline as investors…
SolenyaResearch pinned «📊 Weekly Outlook Charts Sep 2-6: 🚨Market Breadth is flashing warning signs, with MMMTH, MMMFI, and MMMTW indicators suggesting a potential rotation out of risk. When combined with other indicators such as market fear/greed being neutral, AAII sentiment being…»
📅 Weekly Outlook Sep 30 - Oct 6 📅
Stay updated with key news & events in finance and crypto! 🧵👇
---
📰 News/Sentiment:
- FED tracking econ data for rate cuts 📊
- Neutral stance, less dovish than expected 🕊️
- Eyes on Sept Jobs, ISM Manufacturing, Jobless Claims 📈
- Investors expect continued rate lowering 💸
- Goldman: Stocks pricier on ROE premium 📉
- BofA forecasts a soft landing 🌤️
---
📅 Events This Week:
Monday:
- 🇬🇧 UK: GP
- 🇩🇪 GER: CPI
- 🇺🇸 US: Powell Speaks 🎙️
Tuesday:
- 🇪🇺 EUR: Core CPI, CPI
- 🇺🇸 US: PMI, Fed GDP Now, Job Openings
- 📈 Earnings: NKE 👟
Wednesday:
- 🇪🇺 EUR: Unemployment 📉
Thursday:
- 🇺🇸 US: Jobless Claims
- 🇨🇳 CNY: CPI 🇨🇳
Friday:
- 🇺🇸 US: Labor Participation, Nonfarm Payroll, Unemployment Rate 📊
---
⚖️ Risk Appetite:
- Truflation: 1.5% 📉
- Market Fear/Greed: 75 🤑 Extreme Greed
- Market Breadth: Extreme Greed 🚀
- Put/Call: Extreme Greed
- Junk Bond vs. Investment Grade: Fear ⚠️
- AAII Sentiment: 3% off 1yr bullish 📈
- Crypto Fear/Greed: 50 Neutral 🪙
- High Yield Bond Premium: 3.68% 🔺
- High Yield Effective Yield: 7.8% 🔺
---
📊 Market Breadth:
- % of $SPX > 200D MA: 62% ↔️
- % of $SPX > 50D MA: 65% ↔️
- % of $SPX > 20D MA: 68% ↔️
- NASDAQ New Highs - Lows: 57
- SPY 52W Highs - Lows: -44
- SPY New H/L: Monthly 147; Weekly 19 📉
---
🔍 Other:
- Fed Rate Monitor: 30% chance of 50bps, 70% chance of 25bps 📉🔮
Stay updated with key news & events in finance and crypto! 🧵👇
---
📰 News/Sentiment:
- FED tracking econ data for rate cuts 📊
- Neutral stance, less dovish than expected 🕊️
- Eyes on Sept Jobs, ISM Manufacturing, Jobless Claims 📈
- Investors expect continued rate lowering 💸
- Goldman: Stocks pricier on ROE premium 📉
- BofA forecasts a soft landing 🌤️
---
📅 Events This Week:
Monday:
- 🇬🇧 UK: GP
- 🇩🇪 GER: CPI
- 🇺🇸 US: Powell Speaks 🎙️
Tuesday:
- 🇪🇺 EUR: Core CPI, CPI
- 🇺🇸 US: PMI, Fed GDP Now, Job Openings
- 📈 Earnings: NKE 👟
Wednesday:
- 🇪🇺 EUR: Unemployment 📉
Thursday:
- 🇺🇸 US: Jobless Claims
- 🇨🇳 CNY: CPI 🇨🇳
Friday:
- 🇺🇸 US: Labor Participation, Nonfarm Payroll, Unemployment Rate 📊
---
⚖️ Risk Appetite:
- Truflation: 1.5% 📉
- Market Fear/Greed: 75 🤑 Extreme Greed
- Market Breadth: Extreme Greed 🚀
- Put/Call: Extreme Greed
- Junk Bond vs. Investment Grade: Fear ⚠️
- AAII Sentiment: 3% off 1yr bullish 📈
- Crypto Fear/Greed: 50 Neutral 🪙
- High Yield Bond Premium: 3.68% 🔺
- High Yield Effective Yield: 7.8% 🔺
---
📊 Market Breadth:
- % of $SPX > 200D MA: 62% ↔️
- % of $SPX > 50D MA: 65% ↔️
- % of $SPX > 20D MA: 68% ↔️
- NASDAQ New Highs - Lows: 57
- SPY 52W Highs - Lows: -44
- SPY New H/L: Monthly 147; Weekly 19 📉
---
🔍 Other:
- Fed Rate Monitor: 30% chance of 50bps, 70% chance of 25bps 📉🔮
SolenyaResearch pinned «📅 Weekly Outlook Sep 30 - Oct 6 📅 Stay updated with key news & events in finance and crypto! 🧵👇 --- 📰 News/Sentiment: - FED tracking econ data for rate cuts 📊 - Neutral stance, less dovish than expected 🕊️ - Eyes on Sept Jobs, ISM Manufacturing,…»