GOLD resumed attempts to consolidate above $5,200 amid global relief and a pullback in oil prices. The reason: Trump's signals about a possible end to the war in Iran (manipulation?)

Geopolitical easing: Trump said the war is “almost over” (we all know Trump's maneuvers...), adding that sanctions against Russian energy could be eased.
Reaction: Oil fell sharply after rising to 3-year highs. The dollar is being sold, US stock indices are rising. The market is recovering, money is flowing into gold due to the weakening of the dollar.
However, Iran's rhetoric and production cuts in the Persian Gulf maintain the threat of a new round of oil shock. Tomorrow's CPI will be the next key trigger. Focus on key levels...

Resistance levels: 5190, 5226, 5270
Support levels: 5154, 5121, 5086

The market is holding resistance at 5190 due to uncertainty. A correction to the zones of interest 5154 - 5121 is possible before another attempt to break through the trigger and expectations of distribution due to the inflow of funds into gold (the reasons are described above). The structure will break down if the market closes below 5121 (the fundamental background changes quite often, and the market will react).

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GOLD is forming a trading range of 5150-5230 in anticipation of US CPI data. Oil is strengthening due to geopolitical reasons, while the dollar is stagnating. Pressure is being felt...

Oil prices have temporarily halted their decline amid escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The dollar has entered a consolidation phase ahead of the news, with the index stuck between 99.50 and 98.7, creating overall pressure on the metals market.
CPI data (February) is expected to remain unchanged, but the actual data could be a strong driver: confirmation of slowing inflation will support expectations of a Fed rate cut and strengthen gold.
The reaction to CPI may be short-lived if geopolitics or oil come to the fore again.
Technically, gold is trading within 5154-5230, and there is a fairly high probability of a retest of 5154-5121 before a possible rise.

Resistance levels: 5190, 5226, 5269
Support levels: 5154, 5121, 5086

The price is breaking the local trend line, and the rise in oil and consolidation of the dollar are putting pressure on gold. The ideal scenario, ahead of the news, would be a retest of the 5154 - 5121 liquidity zone, which the market is likely to form before attempting to strengthen towards 5230 - 5270

The dollar has stalled at 99.00 ahead of the key inflation report (CPI). After a week of chaos (oil, war, mixed signals), the market is waiting for a trigger.

CPI news ahead. Possible scenario:

Forecast: 2.4% y/y (unchanged since January).
Above 2.4% → will push back expectations of rate cuts → strengthen the dollar → pressure on risk assets.
Below 2.4% → opposite effect.

The data comes amid a cooling labor market.
The Fed meets on March 18 (a pause is expected), but the tone of the statements is no less important than the decisions.

News ahead. High volatility possible!
Focus on CPI!

Ideas For #XAUUSD / #GOLD

GOLD is completing a local correction, which provides additional opportunities for potential growth amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. The market situation is tense, with traders awaiting economic data

The IEA and the US have announced the release of 400 million barrels from reserves, and the correction in oil prices may give gold a chance. The dollar is stagnating at this time.
Markets are anticipating a prolonged pause in the Fed's rate cuts (February's CPI matched the forecast but did not take into account the oil shock).
Despite pressure on gold, demand for purchases at the bottom remains strong thanks to its status as a safe-haven asset.
The market is caught between geopolitical support and macro pressure (inflation, rates). As long as oil rises, the dollar and yields will hold back growth. To break above $5,200, either oil needs to reverse (correct) or the Fed needs to signal its readiness to ease despite inflation...

Resistance levels: 5190, 5226, 5279
Support levels: 5171, 5140, 5121

Technically, gold is coming out of a correction within the current range and testing an intermediate resistance level, a break of which will open the way to the upper limit of the flat. A close above 5190 would be a good signal. However, before rising, the price may test the nearest support level in search of liquidity.

Ideas For #XAUUSD #GOLD

GOLD is testing an interim low of 5055 against the backdrop of a weak dollar and oil. The main reason is the oil shock. Geopolitics is being offset by a hawkish shift in expectations for Fed rates

Iran's new leader has announced the continuation of the blockade as a means of pressure. Oil is becoming more expensive (+8% over the week), accelerating inflation expectations. The dollar is strengthening as a safe-haven currency and “oil currency.”
Rising inflation expectations are forcing markets to revise their forecasts for Fed rate cuts (possibly ruling out any cuts this year).
Today: revision of GDP and PCE for January.
The data is outdated and will not reflect the oil shock, so it is unlikely to influence the Fed.
As long as oil pushes inflation up, the dollar and rate expectations will weigh on gold, despite geopolitics. For a sustained reversal, either an oil pullback or a signal from the Fed that it is ready to ease is needed.

Resistance levels: 5106, 5125
Support levels: 5081, 5067, 5016

Focus on the current flat range of 5067-5125. The capture of liquidity from below is forming a reversal setup, and against the backdrop of a local correction in the dollar and oil, gold may strengthen after the Asian rally and test the zone of interest 5100-5125 before falling due to market pressure.