Nakhryuk™ (War correspondents analyzing the fearsome Ukrainian offensive.)

Russian Airforce incoming over the LPR territory. Ready or not, here are some FABs for you, “glorious Ukrainian counteroffenders.”

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I've already written this once and I'll write it again. Just imagine what would have happened if there had been telegrams, Twitter, social networks during the Second World War? What would happen if soldiers from the front posted photos and videos for 4(!!!) years? Millions and thousands of dead soldiers, people dying of hunger. Or a video from besieged Leningrad where people cooked leather belts to survive? You would turn away from us, of course, you would say that the Russians will definitely lose, it's over, we're going our separate ways. Neither then nor now can we afford to lose and succumb to hysteria and a decadent mood. Learn to read the news without giving in to panic every time, even if something bad happened. There will still be a lot of things that will spoil our mood and upset us. But victory is not forged like that. You can't lose faith.
The enemy will be defeated, victory will be ours!

👆👆👆Waiting for Godot the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

In all seriousness, however, the “fabled Ukrainian offensive” began a week to two weeks ago. Those expecting blitzkrieg and fanfare will have to make do with what the Ukrainian army is capable of. Today’s Artyomovsk flank attacks are one of the stages—most likely Syrsky’s plan integrated into the larger design that will unfold over the weeks to come.

Neither army in the field is able to conduct sweeping operations to defeat the other. Russia—because of insufficient numbers, and Ukraine—due to lack of capability.

Both sides know that Ukraine’s (almost inevitable) failure in any attempt to conduct a blitzkrieg operation could result in the collapse of their frontlines. A classic stalemate ensues.

It can only be ultimately broken when Russia mobilizes enough men to field an army of a million—something I said was necessary last year. Until that’s done, this war will drag on, because Ukrainians are not stupid enough to do what every panic-monger claims they are about to do.

And so we wait.

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Just watching this is highly disconcerting.

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👆👆👆 Kids, please stay away from drugs.

- Sir Cheburashka

Regarding Zaluzhny, Syrsky, and Zelensky—the longer they stay in command of the ramshackle Ukrainian state and military machinery, the better for the Russian Army. You do not want them to be replaced, and replaced they would be, easily, should the need arise.

The West, fighting its war against Russia with Ukraine as the battering ram, has fallen prey to its information warfare game. Having exalted the likes of Zelensky and Zaluzhny as heroes and masterful commanders—which they clearly are not—has been forced to watch as they and their entourages plunder the Western military-financial aid and send hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers to slaughter for political benefit.

There are more than a few in the Western elite who would welcome the opportunity to dispose of the current Kiev clique, but no easy option to do so exists, as they have been sold to the Western masses as “saviours of Ukraine.” Their elimination by Russia would only open up opportunities to escalate.

Hence, I recommend you drink to their health—you would be toasting to Russia’s success.

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❗️ The Moldovan police detained a Russian peacekeeper, the military commandant of the central part of the Security Zone in the Scherpin bridgehead. The reason: a St. George's ribbon.

A Russian representative to the Joint Control Commission hopes it was a misunderstanding.

#source

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Reading the feeds of anonymous military insiders and war correspondents today, I realize that if Telegram had existed in 1812, a lot of people would have just gone crazy:

- The French are already in St. Petersburg!
- What St. Petersburg? They can't even take Moscow!
- We have no army! Cowardly Kutuzov and Barclay de Tolly are always running away and afraid to give battle to Napoleon!
- Have you seen the newest hussar Nadezhda Durova? They've run out of men, they're already mobilizing women!
- Head of Partisan PMC, Denis Davydov, writes to the emperor that Bagration is not sending him the ammunition and cannonballs he needs to hit the French in the rear.
- Moscow has been burned! What other red lines do you need in order to finally give a general battle to Bonapart!!!
- The Highlanders of the Wild Division are again sending TikToks from the third line of the front.
- General Miloradovich failed to list his estate in the Oryol region on his tax return. That's where the military budget went!

By @SonOfMonarchy

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For the sake of completeness, I must also mention the dissenting opinion of Vladislav Ugolny.

Whether it is his relative youth (compared to other commentators) or the radicalism and contrarianism that stem from said youth, he is far more optimistic than the rest. His view is that there will be no offensive by the Ukrainian army, apart from localized attacks not unlike the Russian operations during the winter 2022-23 campaign.

In particular, he is of the opinion that not only did the Ukraine never have (and never will achieve) sufficient operational capability to conduct a significant offensive, but that a lot of what had been mustered was burned through in Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) and other sectors, such as Ugledar and Avdeevka/Maryinka.

Moreover, the Russian fortifications erected along the entire length of the front (note that the flanks of Artyomovsk are not as heavily fortified or defended as, say, Zaporozhye or Kherson regions, and there is insufficient information regarding the Svatovo-Kremennaya sector) make any offensive by the Ukrainian army in its current (and future) state not feasible. A classic zugzwang ensues.

Far be it from me to suggest that this is a comprehensive or even entirely accurate representation of his views, but the above is my take on his analysis.

I, personally, fall closer to Roman Donetsky on the "waiting for Godot" spectrum than to Ugolny, but even so, the creeping stages of the Ukrainian offensive do not appear to me to be a build-up to a catastrophe... well, unless it is the Ukrainian catastrophe that we are talking about.

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PS. Also, regarding the Ukrainian operation near Mayorsk (the northwestern tip of Gorlovka, a transitway station), whatever it was, it was crushed entirely, with a complete retreat by the Ukrainian forces.

As for whatever is happening around Artyomovsk, I see no serious continuation from the Ukrainian flank attacks. The nature of this war is such that, if the attacking side is unable to break through in the first wave, whatever gains may have been made are generally rolled back over ensuing days, and this is particularly the case where the attack is foiled in an open field, without resulting in the loss of settlements. You can't hide from artillery and the airforce in open fields.

Tomorrow will bring clarity.

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Meanwhile, near Velikaya Novoselovka (roughly halfway between Ugledar and Guliay Pole), the Russian Army has entrenched itself on the outskirts of Neskuchnoye.

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As advertised earlier, the Russian Airforce has reached its targets:

The Russian Air Force is working on the rear of the Ukrainian Bakhmut grouping and the troops at the front. Explosions reported in Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.

#source

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Apti Alaudinov - Commander of the special forces "AKHMAT"
Deputy Commander of the 2nd Army Corps of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation

#source
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GB: This will continue happening with every Ukrainian offensive attempt in open field: Once they push into Russian positions, they expose themselves to an artillery and airforce firing bag. The role of Russian air superiority is hard to overestimate.

The Russian Air Force launched a night-time operation to destroy Ukrainian forces near Artyomovsk (Bakhmut):

▪️ Among other things, the strikes are carried out in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, where the Ukrainian reserves and warehouses with weapons for supplying the frontline are located.

▪️ "Russian aircraft approach the controlled territory of Donetsk region, threatening guided missiles and bomb launches on the front line, and frontline settlements!" - Ukrainian military channels are reporting with alarm.

#source

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GB: Everyone—I am addressing everyone in the pro-Russian Telegram community—please get your terminology right.

It’s not the “Ukrainian counteroffensive” (unless you are being sarcastic, to quote my recent “the glorious Ukrainian counteroffenders”). You can’t have a “counteroffensive” after months of a frontline stalemate.

It’s the anticipated “Ukrainian offensive.”

When it fails, and if Russia attacks along the entire line of the front*, that would then be called the decisive “Russian counteroffensive.”

A counteroffensive is made possible by and often succeeds precisely because of the failure of the other side’s offensive. Even the most tenuous justifications for calling the Ukrainian operations a “counteroffensive” were eviscerated by an entire winter of inaction.

Terminology is important and decisive. Get it right.

* I got overexcited here, clearly. Sweeping, penetrating attacks in a number of frontline sections, to isolate entire theatres or even key defensive points would be more accurate

I do, however, approve of the “countergrunk” neologism I saw the @LlordOfWar use recently (it combines all the things we fancy: a grunt, being drunk, the sound a hog makes, and the general Nakhryuk™ flavor of the Ukrainian attacks).

I rule thus: “countergrunk” is permitted, “counteroffensive” is not.

Let it be known. Dixi.

The soldiers of the Central Military District of the Russian Air Force showed in action a unique sound-measuring complex "Penicillin".

"The sound wave itself shakes the air, it picks up the slightest decibels that we cannot hear with our own ears and amplifies."

#source
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