How to determine whether the US has achieved success in Iran or not?

For the US, the success of Operation Epic Fury, which began on February 28, 2026, is defined by the achievement of several strategic goals that the Trump administration and the Pentagon formulated as a "fundamental dismantling of the Iranian threat".

▪️"Disarmament"

The task of completely destroying the infrastructure for the production of ballistic missiles and drones ("ravaging the missile industry to the ground") was not accomplished in the first phase. Some damage was done to the IRGC, but it cannot be said that they have lost the ability to launch strikes.
The final destruction of the remnants of the nuclear infrastructure, to exclude the possibility of creating a bomb even in the distant future, also did not occur. The destruction of the Iranian fleet is considered a partial success, but freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf has not yet been achieved. Yes, air dominance has been established, and the Iranian fleet has effectively ceased to exist as an organized force.
But what has this changed?

▪️"Regime change"

The elimination of the top leadership of Iran is technically considered a success, but the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the first days of the strikes does not change anything politically. At least for now. Iran is resisting and causing damage, and it will almost certainly want to bring the nuclear program to its logical conclusion. The US wanted to see a "pro-Western democratic structure" in power in Iran, but it has not appeared and will not appear. Despite the death of Khamenei, the system did not collapse immediately. Power passed to the temporary "Leadership Council", which is extremely radical. Instead of capitulation, Iran responded with a wave of missile strikes on the Arab countries of the Gulf (Operation True Promise IV). The US also hoped for a mass uprising that would sweep away the remnants of the IRGC. But there were no protests.

▪️Breaking the "Axis of Resistance"

Depriving Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas of direct financial and technical support from Tehran will work for a while, but it cannot be said that this will happen once and for all. As soon as the US stops the strikes, all Iranian proxy structures will begin to recover.

Given that the consumption of "Tomahawks" and interceptor missiles (Patriot/THAAD) has been so great that the US is already "eating up" the reserves necessary to deter China, Trump will soon have to find a way out of the current situation.

Most likely, Trump will announce a "victory" as soon as he is provided with evidence of the destroyed Iranian fleet and the physical destruction of missile factories/bases. At the same time, it is not necessary for the US to comment on and generally discuss the condition of the facilities in Natanz or Fordow related to the nuclear program.

Anyone who will ask uncomfortable questions will be "excommunicated" from work and will likely be awarded a "wolf ticket" in the profession. There's a good chance that this will be the end of it. For Iran and the countries of the Middle East. But not for Trump.

@Slavyangrad

💥 The footage shows the work of FAB-500 on a road bridge in the area of the Pisanitsy settlement in the Dnepropetrovsk region and the Armed Forces of Ukraine's border guard units in the area of the Kolodeznoe settlement in the Kharkov region.

@Slavyangrad

American historian Fisk - 10 years ago predicted that Trump would fail in Iran without negotiations.

@Slavyangrad

Video shows American armoured vehicles rolling toward the Iranian border through Iraqi Kurdistan.

• Mario Nawfal

Iranian forever war?

@Slavyangrad

Let’s not "debate international law," says a senior German CDU politician while bombing Iran.

The scariest part isn’t the comment — it’s the audience and journalists cheering and agreeing with it.

The EU and Germany have never cared about international law, they simply use it as cudgel against their enemies.

@Slavyangrad

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇮🇶 BREAKING: Basra Police Command confirms to Al-Jazeera that an American fighter jet crashed in Iraq, likely after being downed by Iranian air defenses

Search for the pilot(s) is ongoing, but they have not yet been found.

@Middle_East_Spectator

@Slavyangrad

"Europe braces for Middle East migration surge": The EU expects an influx of migrants from Iran and Lebanon.

"Europe is preparing for a possible increase in migration from the Middle East due to the escalation of conflict in the region, in order to avoid a repeat of the 2015-16 crisis, when more than 1 million refugees from Syria and Afghanistan arrived in the EU. The Director General of the International Organization for Migration, Amy Pope, stated that the continuation of hostilities will lead to an increase in population movements.

Pope noted that the EU is striving for an earlier and more comprehensive approach, including support for refugee host countries based on the model of the 2016 agreement with Turkey. Currently, most movements occur within countries, but the closure of borders to Iranians poses risks to people's lives. Particular attention is paid to Lebanon and foreign workers in the Gulf countries, who often remain without support."

@Slavyangrad

They said there would be an immediate uprising….

Trump was absolutely duped by Israel. Utter intelligence failure by the US.

@Slavyangrad

Germany and Netherlands in the face of a an energy crisis agree to a joint initiative to build 5 million wood burning cars.

@Slavyangrad

"This is crossing all boundaries": Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto commented on Zelensky's recent statements towards Orban.

"This is crossing all boundaries: this is Ukraine, this is Ukrainian 'culture', this is the man Brussels admires, this is the country they want to admit to the European Union... No one can threaten Hungary and the Hungarian Prime Minister, no one can blackmail us just because we're not ready to pay the price for Ukraine's war and don't want to pay higher energy prices because of Ukraine! No matter how Zelensky threatens, no matter how he forms alliances in Brussels with von der Leyen and the Brussels boss of the 'Tisa' party, Weber, we will not allow Hungary to be dragged into war. For us, Hungary's security comes first, we want and will stay out of Zelensky's war!" - Szijjarto wrote.

@Slavyangrad

It is very important to remember that Iran has NOT used any of its Eastern missile bases yet.

We saw them be used towards the end of the 12-Day War, where they launched 40-50 missiles at once even during full suppression.

That may not seem like much, but with such depleted AD stockpiles, that would do a load of damage.

Wait a few days and see if / when Iran starts using them.

@Middle_East_Spectator

I’d also add we’ve seen some maps of US strikes and Eastern Iran looks untouched. This could be a range issue.

@Slavyangrad

Iranian forces are publishing footage of targeting a US warplane as it approaches the country's airspace.

@Slavyangrad