It seems the bulk of Iranian attacks are concentrated on US bases in the Gulf countries, Israel has been a secondary target so far.

@Slavyangrad

Allegedly, IRIB Iranian state media has confirmed Khamenei’s death (pbuh).

We will confirm and advise.

IRIB—https://t.me/iribnews/317386

“To God we belong, and to Him we shall return.

The Leader of the Ummah, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, His Eminence Ayatollah Khamenei, has been martyred.

@iribnews”

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇰🇼/🇨🇳 NEW: Satellite imagery released by China shows at least 4 impacts at Ali Al-Salem Airbase in Kuwait as a result of Iranian ballistic missile strikes

@Middle_East_Spectator

@Slavyangrad

Well, the leader is dead.

Khamenei’s death is unlikely to be to Iran’s detriment. Nonetheless, it showcases the significant gap in deterrence and defence capability between the great and the rising/acolyte powers of the crystallizing world order.

The great powers can protect the members of the executive branch. Those below them in stature cannot easily resist the threat, even with advance warning.

The answer, unfortunately, is nuclear deterrence. The next 10-15 years will see a swathe of up-and-comers claim nuclear status. Among the first will be Iran, and the Middle East will finally fall into peace.

As for the US carriers, Iran simply does not have the range. Iran’s anti-ship missiles (with active guidance) are generally limited to a 300km range.

Ballistic missiles, with a significantly greater range, do not have active guidance and would need a miracle to hit a mobile target, such as an aircraft carrier.

The US keeps their juicy targets about 700km away from Iran’s shores.

If Iran had the capability of sinking the US fleet, it would already have been done. Dixi.

Iran will not fall. If it does, it will be atrocious for Russia. You and Yiyun can fly a kite.

Anyone else who wants to doubt the veracities of @Slavyangrad are welcome to announce themselves. Kind thanks.

Let me repost:

This morning I was asked on Boston radio about the US–Israel strikes on Iran.

Here is the strategic reality most people are missing:

Airpower alone has never produced positive regime change.

I don’t mean rarely.

I mean NEVER.

• Robert Pape, Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago, specializing in security affairs. Founding Director, Chicago Project on Security & Threats (CPOST).

Good reminder that it’s very unlikely the US achieves anything. For Iran to fall we will need to see Israel or the US go in with a large land force.

@Slavyangrad

A point has to be made—every comment (public and private) from Russian military men that I’ve seen regarding the Shahed drones points out that they are grievously behind the Russian development of their Geran offspring.

What is unfortunate is that the US got involved in the fight before the anti-US entente solidified in earnest.

That’s ok—there is still time to react, but Russia and China need to find a way to do so, faster.

To be clear: the US has no capability in the region, at present, to do any serious harm to Iran.

Neither does Iran vis-á-vis the US assets.

Without US ground troops, this is, at best, a stalemate.

Even with US ground troops, Iran is very unlikely to fall, but a lot of blood would then have been spilled.

Israel is largely irrelevant in this equation.

If Iran wants to be left alone, it should learn the Juche path of the North Koreans and split the nucleus.

That’s about it. If, as I expect, this war is over in 1-2 weeks (possibly sooner), then the cycle will just repeat itself, eventually.

Eventually, the US will come with a land force. That war will either be the ruin of the US or it will be the ruin of Iran (and with it, much of the rest of the region).

Standing together, the anti-American entente will lose immediate profits, but gain a long-term future.

Time to pick a goal.

Scenes from the operation that targeted American bases in Erbil province.

@Slavyangrad

A direct fall in Dubai.

@Slavyangrad

I will be frank—the news from IRIB confirming Khamenei’s death was deflating.

Try to imagine—if Netanyahu or Trump had been killed—the impact on their respective nations. Or Putin? Or Xi?

In Khamenei’s case, he was also the supreme religious leader, believed to be a descendant of no less than Mohammed. Ponder that for a second.

True, provisions have been made for his replacement. True, his death will have little impact on Iran’s military capability. True, it may even invigorate the Shia resistance across the Middle East.

Nonetheless, the shock and trauma involved are hard to summarily dismiss.

All those who think they are playing a Civilization game session should think a bit harder. The impact of a long-term leader’s loss is hard to calculate, even if he is “old,” a “boomer” or possessed of some other pejorative quality the gamers among us seem to be so fond of mentioning.

This is a tragedy for the nation. It could make the said nation stronger, but it will undoubtedly have a significant detrimental impact.

Do not reassure yourselves merely to be disappointed. The US is using the last of its trump cards. Let’s hope they ain’t enough.

The mysterious Tomahawk cruise missile, previously unseen in black color, was launched from a US Navy destroyer during strikes on Iran on February 28th.
According to TWZ, this is a version of the Maritime Strike Tomahawk (MST) Block V missile with a black anti-radar coating, similar to the one used on the new long-range anti-ship missiles AGM-158C Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM).

@Slavyangrad

Overview from Roman Donetsky (@donrf22), with which I largely agree:

Details of Khamenei’s assassination

1. According to the Iranians, he was killed in his office, not at his residence.

2. The secretary of the Security Council and a high-ranking commander of the IRGC were killed alongside him. This suggests that all three were in the command post, which was targeted with anti-bunker weapons. Hence the evening reports and denials by the Persians.

He was not at his residence. Everyone knew that. The president at the second command post is alive and control has not been lost.

The story of Hamas is repeating itself, where the assassination of leaders did not break the organisation, but allowed it to shift the focus away from the United States.

In Iran, they will choose a leader not from among the people of 1979, but from among the veterans of the Iran-Iraq War. That is, instead of the old Bolsheviks, they will choose Stalinists.

There are two lessons for us. First, negotiations are a path to a strike. It will not necessarily be with missiles. But it will happen. Trump is killing all his negotiating partners. If he gets lucky, there is a coup.

And second, Zelensky. One can continue to respect the law. But as the experience of Venezuela and Iran has shown, in the new world, it's either you kill or you get killed. And that's something to remember. #Iran

@Slavyangrad