Shoal Research Hub
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The Chainlink Endgame: Integrating the World Into the Tokenized Asset Economy

> The piece lays out Chainlink’s “endgame” vision to become the all-in-one oracle and orchestration platform powering tokenized assets and institutional onchain finance.

> It explains how Chainlink connects data, interoperability, compliance, and privacy to bring global financial markets onchain at scale.👇

Source: https://blog.chain.link/chainlink-oracle-platform/
Kalshi Barred from Offering Sports Prediction Markets in Massachusetts, Judge Rules

> A Massachusetts judge on Tuesday has ruled Kalshi cannot offer sports prediction markets in the state without a gaming license and will issue a preliminary injunction.

> The decision follows claims that Kalshi’s sports event contracts violate state gambling laws despite Kalshi lawyers claiming that state gaming laws like Massachusetts' do not apply to its sports events contracts

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/kalshi-cannot-operate-sports-prediction-market-massachusetts-judge-rules-2026-01-20/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Galaxy Research: The Shape of Prediction Markets to Come

Prediction markets have crossed the chasm into mainstream awareness and capital formation, with Polymarket and Kalshi among the fastest-growing consumer finance products.

> The next phase of innovation includes leveraged markets, AI driven pricing, Borrow/lend of PM shares, and new models like impact and decision markets, expanding their role beyond speculation.

> This report covers the state of prediction markets, key innovations driving their growth, and why the next phase is likely to blur the boundaries between event markets and derivatives. 👇

Source: https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/prediction-markets-leverage-ai-agents-defi
OpenAI Rolls Out Age Prediction on ChatGPT to Apply Teen Safeguards

> OpenAI is rolling out age prediction on ChatGPT to help determine when an account likely belongs to someone under 18, so they can apply the right experience and safeguards for teens.

Source: https://openai.com/index/our-approach-to-age-prediction/
Claude Adds Secure Health Data Integrations

> Four new integrations now available in beta: Apple Health (iOS), Health Connect (Android), HealthEx, and Function Health.

> When connected, Claude can summarize your medical history, explain test results, detect patterns across fitness metrics, and more.

Source: https://x.com/claudeai/status/2013754136265621952
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a16z: 11 AI x Crypto Crossovers

> 11 use cases at the intersection of crypto & AI to help kickstart conversations about what’s possible, what challenges are left to solve, and more.👇

Source: https://x.com/a16zcrypto/status/2013763172143088005
Nansen Launches Trading Solution with Low Fees and Agentic Execution on Solana and Base

Agentic trading on mobile, terminal trading on web

0.25% fee for Free users, 0.10% for Pro users

Analytics and trading, all in one product.


Source: https://x.com/nansen_ai/status/2013870819248873833
Solayer Launches $35M Ecosystem Fund to Back High-Throughput, Revenue-Driven Projects on infiniSVM

> Solayer is announcing a $35 Million strategic investment initiative to back projects building directly on infiniSVM, targeting high-throughput, real-time onchain apps with clear revenue models, strong fundamentals & deep technical foundations.

Source: https://x.com/solayer_labs/status/2013659311365673111
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Keyrock x Dune: Prediction markets - The Next Frontier of Financial Markets

> This report explores prediction markets as a new financial primitive, tracing their evolution, current landscape, and examining their growing role in hedging, forecasting, and retail participation.

> It outlines the 4 forces driving their next phase: liquidity, retention, regulation, and integration👇

x.com/keyrock/status/2013975917954011177

Source: keyrock.com/prediction-markets-report/
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Shoal Research Hub
Keyrock x Dune: Prediction markets - The Next Frontier of Financial Markets > This report explores prediction markets as a new financial primitive, tracing their evolution, current landscape, and examining their growing role in hedging, forecasting, and retail…
Some Key Insights from the Report

> Since early 2024, monthly notional volume on prediction markets has surged from under $100M to over $13B, a 130x increase.

> In 2025 volume & open interest growth is being led by non-sports categories, with Economics and Tech & Science driving volume and open interest gains.

> On Kalshi, Politics, Elections, and Economics combined hold 2.5x the open interest of Sports, while on Polymarket, Politics outpaced Sports by 400% in 2025

> Prediction markets act as real-time macro indicators, repricing faster and with 4.3x less volatility than traditional models like FedNow.

> Polymarket outperforms +85% of crypto protocols on user retention across a sample of over 275 projects, and more👇

Source: https://keyrock.com/prediction-markets-report/
Circle Gateway is Now Available on Solana

> Devs can enable instant chain-abstracted USDC for DeFi, payments, treasury rebalancing, and more

Source: https://x.com/circle/status/2013974991424118908
Kalshi Records All-Time High With $474.2 Million in Spot Trading Volume on Saturday

Source: https://x.com/artemis/status/2013265256399696174
Ondo Global Markets Launches on Solana

> The launch brings 200+ tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs with the liquidity of TradFi to Solana.

Source: https://ondo.finance/blog/global-markets-live-on-solana
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Neynar to Acquire Farcaster

> Neynar is acquiring Farcaster and will take over ownership of its protocol contracts, code repositories, app, and Clanker.

Source: https://farcaster.xyz/dwr/0x72aab3a5
59 New Major Stablecoins Launched in 2025, According to Stablewatch Data

Source: https://x.com/stablewatchHQ/status/2013643599783829690
Trump Announces Framework Deal With NATO on Greenland and Arctic, Halts Planned Tariffs

> “We have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region”

> “Based upon this understanding, I will not be imposing the Tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on February 1st”

> VP JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and others will be responsible for negotiations.

Source: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115934734335579278
Pricing the Revenue: Effective Revenue Multipliers

> The Effective Revenue Multiplier (ERM) is a metric that accounts only for the cashflow received by tokens that are eligible to receive it.

> It calculates how expensive a token is relative to the cashflow it actually captures by revenue eligible token holders, not just protocol revenue.

> This piece explains why traditional P/S or P/F ratios misprice crypto assets, and shows how ERM adjusts for token design features like buybacks, veTokenomics, & selective revenue distribution👇

Source: https://app.valueverse.ai/research/pricing-the-revenue-effective-revenue-multipliers