Credit Suisse, Nomura Tumble as Banks Tally Archegos Damage (1)
By Takashi Nakamichi, Cathy Chan and Sridhar Natarajan
Goldman sees immaterial impact after massive margin call
Unwinding of Archegos trades has roiled shares including Baidu
(Bloomberg) --
Nomura Holdings Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG both plunged more than 14% after saying they face potentially “significant” losses as some of the world’s biggest banks tally their exposure to wrong-way bets by Archegos Capital Management.
Lenders to Bill Hwang’s New York-based family office have been racing to contain the fallout after Archegos failed to meet margin calls last week. The forced liquidation of more than $20 billion of positions linked to Archegos has roiled stocks from Baidu Inc. to ViacomCBS Inc. and cast a spotlight on the opaque world of leveraged trading strategies facilitated by some of the biggest names on Wall Street.
While the turmoil has so far had only a limited impact on broader financial markets, banks and people familiar with the matter indicated the unwinding of of Archegos-related bets may have further to go. Credit Suisse and other lenders were still in the process of exiting positions, the bank said in a statement on Monday that didn’t mention Archegos by name. Morgan Stanley was shopping a large block of ViacomCBS shares on Sunday, people familiar said.
The saga has captivated much of the financial industry, swathes of which have been piling on leverage in recent years amid historically low interest rates and one of the strongest equity bull markets on record.
Much about Hwang’s trades remains unclear, but market participants estimate that his assets had grown to anywhere from $5 billion to $10 billion and total positions may have topped $50 billion.
A large portion of the leverage was provided by the banks through swaps, according to people with direct knowledge of the deals. That meant that Archegos didn’t have to disclose its holdings in regulatory filings, since the positions were on the banks’ balance sheets.
Nomura, whose shares tumbled by a record 16% in Tokyo on Monday, said in a statement that the estimated amount of its claim against an unnamed U.S. client was about $2 billion. That client is Archegos, according to people familiar with the matter.
Credit Suisse said that while it was premature to quantify the size of its loss, it may be “highly significant and material to our first quarter results.”
Shares of the Swiss lender, which has also been embroiled in a scandal over the collapse of Lex Greensill’s trade finance empire, sank as much as 14% on Monday. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index was little changed, while futures on the S&P 500 Index slipped 0.5% after the U.S. equity benchmark closed at an all-time high on Friday.
Goldman Sachs is telling shareholders and clients that any losses it faces from Archegos are likely to be immaterial, a person familiar with the matter said.
Read more:Goldman U-Turn on Hwang Put Bank at Nexus of Margin Call MayhemOnce High-Flying Tiger Cub Stumbles Again on Leveraged BetsTraders Are ‘Glued to Their Screens’ and Set for Volatile Open
The New York-based bank’s loans to Archegos were fully collateralized and Goldman was among the first to begin reducing its exposure, the person said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. The bank has exited most of its Archegos-related positions, the person added. A media representative at Goldman declined to comment.
Morgan Stanley is also a prime broker to Archegos and was among the banks managing block trades that jolted markets on Friday, according to people familiar with the matter. Deutsche Bank AG and UBS Group AG also transacted with the fund. It’s unclear whether the banks face losses. Morgan Stanley, Deutsche and UBS declined to comment.
(Updates with context and shares from third paragraph.)
Related tickers:
8604 JP (Nomura Holdings Inc)
CSGN SW (Credit Suisse Group AG)
GS US (Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The)
MS US (Morgan Stanley)
--With assistance from Dale Crofts, Marion Halftermeyer, Lulu Yilun Chen, Steven A
By Takashi Nakamichi, Cathy Chan and Sridhar Natarajan
Goldman sees immaterial impact after massive margin call
Unwinding of Archegos trades has roiled shares including Baidu
(Bloomberg) --
Nomura Holdings Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG both plunged more than 14% after saying they face potentially “significant” losses as some of the world’s biggest banks tally their exposure to wrong-way bets by Archegos Capital Management.
Lenders to Bill Hwang’s New York-based family office have been racing to contain the fallout after Archegos failed to meet margin calls last week. The forced liquidation of more than $20 billion of positions linked to Archegos has roiled stocks from Baidu Inc. to ViacomCBS Inc. and cast a spotlight on the opaque world of leveraged trading strategies facilitated by some of the biggest names on Wall Street.
While the turmoil has so far had only a limited impact on broader financial markets, banks and people familiar with the matter indicated the unwinding of of Archegos-related bets may have further to go. Credit Suisse and other lenders were still in the process of exiting positions, the bank said in a statement on Monday that didn’t mention Archegos by name. Morgan Stanley was shopping a large block of ViacomCBS shares on Sunday, people familiar said.
The saga has captivated much of the financial industry, swathes of which have been piling on leverage in recent years amid historically low interest rates and one of the strongest equity bull markets on record.
Much about Hwang’s trades remains unclear, but market participants estimate that his assets had grown to anywhere from $5 billion to $10 billion and total positions may have topped $50 billion.
A large portion of the leverage was provided by the banks through swaps, according to people with direct knowledge of the deals. That meant that Archegos didn’t have to disclose its holdings in regulatory filings, since the positions were on the banks’ balance sheets.
Nomura, whose shares tumbled by a record 16% in Tokyo on Monday, said in a statement that the estimated amount of its claim against an unnamed U.S. client was about $2 billion. That client is Archegos, according to people familiar with the matter.
Credit Suisse said that while it was premature to quantify the size of its loss, it may be “highly significant and material to our first quarter results.”
Shares of the Swiss lender, which has also been embroiled in a scandal over the collapse of Lex Greensill’s trade finance empire, sank as much as 14% on Monday. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index was little changed, while futures on the S&P 500 Index slipped 0.5% after the U.S. equity benchmark closed at an all-time high on Friday.
Goldman Sachs is telling shareholders and clients that any losses it faces from Archegos are likely to be immaterial, a person familiar with the matter said.
Read more:Goldman U-Turn on Hwang Put Bank at Nexus of Margin Call MayhemOnce High-Flying Tiger Cub Stumbles Again on Leveraged BetsTraders Are ‘Glued to Their Screens’ and Set for Volatile Open
The New York-based bank’s loans to Archegos were fully collateralized and Goldman was among the first to begin reducing its exposure, the person said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. The bank has exited most of its Archegos-related positions, the person added. A media representative at Goldman declined to comment.
Morgan Stanley is also a prime broker to Archegos and was among the banks managing block trades that jolted markets on Friday, according to people familiar with the matter. Deutsche Bank AG and UBS Group AG also transacted with the fund. It’s unclear whether the banks face losses. Morgan Stanley, Deutsche and UBS declined to comment.
(Updates with context and shares from third paragraph.)
Related tickers:
8604 JP (Nomura Holdings Inc)
CSGN SW (Credit Suisse Group AG)
GS US (Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The)
MS US (Morgan Stanley)
--With assistance from Dale Crofts, Marion Halftermeyer, Lulu Yilun Chen, Steven A
•CS의 2020년12월31일 포트폴리오
현재 CS는 10% 급락으로 시작했습니다.
[Archegos 블록딜 업데이트2]
Nomura, CS가 손실을 오픈했으니 이제 GS, MS 정도가 남았네요. GS, MS는 중개만 하고 실제 익스포져를 갖지 않았을 수도 있습니다. 한국만해도 아시는 것처럼 CFD영업을 압도적으로 하고 있는 IB가 CS입니다.
CS의 2020년12월31일 포트폴리오를 보면, Archegos관련 종목을 Nomura의 그것보다 약 1.7~1.8배 정도 많이 보유하고 있었습니다. 그래서 노무라가 $2b 손실이니 CS는 대략 $4b정도 손실이 날 것이라고 보는 것 같습니다.
ViacomCBS를 보면 노무라는 작년말 기준 약 약0.2억주 신고했고, CS는 약0.36억주를 신고했습니다. ViacomCBS의 총 발행주식수는 약 5.5억주 입니다. 물론 노무라, CS 보유 ViacomCBS가 전부 Archegos의 포지션은 아니겠지만, 이미 작년말 기준으로 ViacomCBS의 지분을 10%육박하게 가지고 있었던 것으로 추정할 수 있습니다.
문제는 ViacomCBS의 주가가 본격적으로 상승하기 시작한 것이 올해 1월 부터였다는 것입니다. 금요일에 골드만이 블록딜한 ViacomCBS의 규모는 약 $3.9b였습니다. 현재 ViacomCBS의 시가총액은 $29b입니다. 대략 지분율기준 13% 수준입니다.
만약 Archegos가 보유한 ViacomCBS전체를 블락딜 한 것이라면, IB하우스의 추가적인 손실발표는 제한적일 것으로 예측해볼 수 있습니다. 그러나 알려진바에 따르면 Archegos는 아직 정리되지 못한 북이 $22b ~ $30b 정도가 남아있다고 합니다. 미국 시장을 유심히 지켜볼 필요가 있겠습니다. 만약 ViacomCBS의 추가블락딜이나 장중급락(장중대규모매도)이 나온다면, 이는 바꿔말하면 추가적인 IB의 대규모 손실발표가 있을 수 있음을 의미합니다.
물론 다른종목에서 주요IB들의 추가손실이 발생할 수도 있습니다.
SMART한 주식투자
https://t.me/frankinvest
현재 CS는 10% 급락으로 시작했습니다.
[Archegos 블록딜 업데이트2]
Nomura, CS가 손실을 오픈했으니 이제 GS, MS 정도가 남았네요. GS, MS는 중개만 하고 실제 익스포져를 갖지 않았을 수도 있습니다. 한국만해도 아시는 것처럼 CFD영업을 압도적으로 하고 있는 IB가 CS입니다.
CS의 2020년12월31일 포트폴리오를 보면, Archegos관련 종목을 Nomura의 그것보다 약 1.7~1.8배 정도 많이 보유하고 있었습니다. 그래서 노무라가 $2b 손실이니 CS는 대략 $4b정도 손실이 날 것이라고 보는 것 같습니다.
ViacomCBS를 보면 노무라는 작년말 기준 약 약0.2억주 신고했고, CS는 약0.36억주를 신고했습니다. ViacomCBS의 총 발행주식수는 약 5.5억주 입니다. 물론 노무라, CS 보유 ViacomCBS가 전부 Archegos의 포지션은 아니겠지만, 이미 작년말 기준으로 ViacomCBS의 지분을 10%육박하게 가지고 있었던 것으로 추정할 수 있습니다.
문제는 ViacomCBS의 주가가 본격적으로 상승하기 시작한 것이 올해 1월 부터였다는 것입니다. 금요일에 골드만이 블록딜한 ViacomCBS의 규모는 약 $3.9b였습니다. 현재 ViacomCBS의 시가총액은 $29b입니다. 대략 지분율기준 13% 수준입니다.
만약 Archegos가 보유한 ViacomCBS전체를 블락딜 한 것이라면, IB하우스의 추가적인 손실발표는 제한적일 것으로 예측해볼 수 있습니다. 그러나 알려진바에 따르면 Archegos는 아직 정리되지 못한 북이 $22b ~ $30b 정도가 남아있다고 합니다. 미국 시장을 유심히 지켜볼 필요가 있겠습니다. 만약 ViacomCBS의 추가블락딜이나 장중급락(장중대규모매도)이 나온다면, 이는 바꿔말하면 추가적인 IB의 대규모 손실발표가 있을 수 있음을 의미합니다.
물론 다른종목에서 주요IB들의 추가손실이 발생할 수도 있습니다.
SMART한 주식투자
https://t.me/frankinvest
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*모든 컨텐츠에는 실수나 오류가 있을 수 있습니다. 동 채널은 종목을 추천하거나 투자를 권유하는 것이 절대 아닙니다. 동 채널의 모든 컨텐츠는 무료이며, 어떤 경우에도 투자판단의 근거가 될 수 없으며, 따라서 투자에 대한 모든 책임은 투자자 본인에게 있습니다. 채널 관계자는 채널에 언급되는 모든 종목을 이미 매수하여 보유하고 있을 수 있고, 언제든 매도할 수 있습니다.
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화이자·모더나 백신 1번만 맞아도 80% 예방
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