☀️ Weekly market outlook
▪️what data to look for?
▪️What are the key drivers?
▪️What is the sentiment?
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▪️what data to look for?
▪️What are the key drivers?
▪️What is the sentiment?
🆔️ STBprovider
🌐 STBbrokers
☀️ Switzerland CPI
▪️The month over month CPI came in at 0.0%, below the forecast of +0.2%, marking the second consecutive month of no price growth.
▪️Year over year inflation also eased to 0.0%, down from 0.3% in March, highlighting continued disinflationary pressure in the Swiss economy.
▪️The weaker than expected data has led to a slight uptick in USD/CHF, as markets adjust expectations regarding future actions by the Swiss National Bank. With inflation at zero, the SNB may consider additional monetary easing in upcoming meetings.
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▪️The month over month CPI came in at 0.0%, below the forecast of +0.2%, marking the second consecutive month of no price growth.
▪️Year over year inflation also eased to 0.0%, down from 0.3% in March, highlighting continued disinflationary pressure in the Swiss economy.
▪️The weaker than expected data has led to a slight uptick in USD/CHF, as markets adjust expectations regarding future actions by the Swiss National Bank. With inflation at zero, the SNB may consider additional monetary easing in upcoming meetings.
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☀️ US ISM Services PMI
▪️The dervices PMI for April came in at 51.6, indicating modest expansion in the US services sector.
▪️This is higher than both the previous month's reading of 50.8 and economists’ expectations of 50.2.
▪️New orders Rose to 52.3, showing improving demand.
▪️Input prices jumped to 65.1, the highest since January 2023, signaling rising cost pressures.
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▪️The dervices PMI for April came in at 51.6, indicating modest expansion in the US services sector.
▪️This is higher than both the previous month's reading of 50.8 and economists’ expectations of 50.2.
▪️New orders Rose to 52.3, showing improving demand.
▪️Input prices jumped to 65.1, the highest since January 2023, signaling rising cost pressures.
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☀️ New Zealand Employment Data
▪️Employment changed +0.1%, in line with expectations, reversing the previous quarter’s -0.2%.
▪️Unemployment rate steady at 5.1%, better than forecasts of 5.3%.
▪️Wage growth in private sector labor costs rose 0.4%, down from 0.6% in the prior quarter.
▪️Stable unemployment and slowing wage growth suggest job losses have stabilized, but strong recovery signs are still lacking.
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▪️Employment changed +0.1%, in line with expectations, reversing the previous quarter’s -0.2%.
▪️Unemployment rate steady at 5.1%, better than forecasts of 5.3%.
▪️Wage growth in private sector labor costs rose 0.4%, down from 0.6% in the prior quarter.
▪️Stable unemployment and slowing wage growth suggest job losses have stabilized, but strong recovery signs are still lacking.
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☀️ Fed interest rates
▪️The US Federal Reserve left interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the third straight meeting, resisting pressure from President Trump to cut rates.
▪️Economy continues to grow at a solid pace and GDP projection is unchanged after trade tensions.
▪️Inflation remains above target.Fed stays focused on 2% goal.
▪️Labor market strong, but risks from trade tensions rising.
▪️Powell said “We remain data dependent and cautious.”
▪️Despite April’s strong job data and a dip in inflation to 2.4%, the Fed is not ready to pivot.
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▪️The US Federal Reserve left interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the third straight meeting, resisting pressure from President Trump to cut rates.
▪️Economy continues to grow at a solid pace and GDP projection is unchanged after trade tensions.
▪️Inflation remains above target.Fed stays focused on 2% goal.
▪️Labor market strong, but risks from trade tensions rising.
▪️Powell said “We remain data dependent and cautious.”
▪️Despite April’s strong job data and a dip in inflation to 2.4%, the Fed is not ready to pivot.
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☀️ BoE Interest Rate
▪️The Bank of England cut its base interest rate by 0.25% to 4.25% today. This is the fourth cut since August 2024, as policymakers respond to slowing global growth and rising economic risks.
▪️In voting, 4 in favor of the cut. Two members wanted a larger 0.5% cut, and two voted to keep rates unchanged.
▪️Weaker global demand, including new US tariffs, is expected to reduce UK output by 0.3% over the next 3 years.
▪️GDP growth for 2025 revised up to 1%, but 2026 forecast lowered to 1.25% due to trade concerns.
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▪️The Bank of England cut its base interest rate by 0.25% to 4.25% today. This is the fourth cut since August 2024, as policymakers respond to slowing global growth and rising economic risks.
▪️In voting, 4 in favor of the cut. Two members wanted a larger 0.5% cut, and two voted to keep rates unchanged.
▪️Weaker global demand, including new US tariffs, is expected to reduce UK output by 0.3% over the next 3 years.
▪️GDP growth for 2025 revised up to 1%, but 2026 forecast lowered to 1.25% due to trade concerns.
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☀️ US unemployment Claims
▪️Initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 228,000 last week, matching expectations of 229,000.
▪️This follows a spike to 241,000 the previous week due to temporary layoffs in New York.
▪️Continuing claims dropped by 29,000 to 1.88 million, indicating employers are still retaining workers.
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▪️Initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 228,000 last week, matching expectations of 229,000.
▪️This follows a spike to 241,000 the previous week due to temporary layoffs in New York.
▪️Continuing claims dropped by 29,000 to 1.88 million, indicating employers are still retaining workers.
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☀️ UK Claimant Count Report
▪️The UK claimant report shows a modest increase in the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits.
▪️The number of claimants rose by 5,200.
▪️Total Claimants reached to 1.726 million in April 2025
▪️Unemployment rate is estimated at 4.5%
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▪️The UK claimant report shows a modest increase in the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits.
▪️The number of claimants rose by 5,200.
▪️Total Claimants reached to 1.726 million in April 2025
▪️Unemployment rate is estimated at 4.5%
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☀️ US CPI Report
▪️Monthly CPI ross +0.2%
Annual CPI rose 2.3% but the lowest since Feb 2021.
▪️Core CPI (excluding food & energy) rose 0.2% in line with expectations.
▪️Shelter cost increased 0.3% Month over Month (over half of April’s CPI rise)
▪️Energy rose +0.7%
▪️Food decreased -0.1%
▪️Inflation is showing signs of cooling, but economist warns about upcoming tariffs.
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▪️Monthly CPI ross +0.2%
Annual CPI rose 2.3% but the lowest since Feb 2021.
▪️Core CPI (excluding food & energy) rose 0.2% in line with expectations.
▪️Shelter cost increased 0.3% Month over Month (over half of April’s CPI rise)
▪️Energy rose +0.7%
▪️Food decreased -0.1%
▪️Inflation is showing signs of cooling, but economist warns about upcoming tariffs.
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☀️ BoE governor Bailey speech
▪️Introduction of Repo Based Reserves System:
Bailey announced the Bank of England's shift to a reserves system based on repurchase agreements (repos).
▪️This move is designed to be more profitable and less burdensome for public finances compared to the previous bond buying programme initiated during the 2008 financial crisis.
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▪️Introduction of Repo Based Reserves System:
Bailey announced the Bank of England's shift to a reserves system based on repurchase agreements (repos).
▪️This move is designed to be more profitable and less burdensome for public finances compared to the previous bond buying programme initiated during the 2008 financial crisis.
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☀️ Australia employment data
▪️Australia's unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in April 2025.
▪️Employment rose by 89,000 people, significantly above expectations of a 20,000 increase.
▪️The participation rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 67.1%, showing more people entering the labor market.
▪️The data reflects a strong and resilient labor market, despite the steady unemployment rate.
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▪️Australia's unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in April 2025.
▪️Employment rose by 89,000 people, significantly above expectations of a 20,000 increase.
▪️The participation rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 67.1%, showing more people entering the labor market.
▪️The data reflects a strong and resilient labor market, despite the steady unemployment rate.
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☀️ UK GDP report
▪️The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, the strongest quarterly growth since early 2023 and above economists' expectations.
▪️Monthly GDP Growth was0.2% in March 2025, supported by a 0.4% rise in services and a 0.5% increase in construction, while production fell by 0.7%.
▪️Analysts warn that growth may slow in the second half of 2025 due to tax hikes and global trade uncertainties.
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▪️The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, the strongest quarterly growth since early 2023 and above economists' expectations.
▪️Monthly GDP Growth was0.2% in March 2025, supported by a 0.4% rise in services and a 0.5% increase in construction, while production fell by 0.7%.
▪️Analysts warn that growth may slow in the second half of 2025 due to tax hikes and global trade uncertainties.
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☀️ US Economic Data
▪️Retail sales rose +0.1% MoM as expected. This indicates slower growth after strong March due to tariff driven buying.
▪️PPI dropped -0.5% MoM vs +0.2% expected and rose +2.4% YoY vs +2.5% expected
▪️Initial Jobless Claims was
229K unchanged from last week. Labor market remains stable.
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▪️Retail sales rose +0.1% MoM as expected. This indicates slower growth after strong March due to tariff driven buying.
▪️PPI dropped -0.5% MoM vs +0.2% expected and rose +2.4% YoY vs +2.5% expected
▪️Initial Jobless Claims was
229K unchanged from last week. Labor market remains stable.
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☀️ Fed Chair Powell Speech
▪️Powell emphasized the need to reconsider the Fed's approach to both employment and inflation targets, acknowledging that recent inflation experiences and potential for more frequent supply shocks necessitate a reevaluation of strategy.
▪️He noted that the US may be entering a period of more frequent and persistent supply shocks, leading to volatile inflation and economic conditions.
▪️Powell highlighted that tight labor markets do not necessarily lead to higher inflation, suggesting a shift in the Fed's understanding of the employment-inflation relationship.
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▪️Powell emphasized the need to reconsider the Fed's approach to both employment and inflation targets, acknowledging that recent inflation experiences and potential for more frequent supply shocks necessitate a reevaluation of strategy.
▪️He noted that the US may be entering a period of more frequent and persistent supply shocks, leading to volatile inflation and economic conditions.
▪️Powell highlighted that tight labor markets do not necessarily lead to higher inflation, suggesting a shift in the Fed's understanding of the employment-inflation relationship.
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☀️ US consumer sentiment
▪️The Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 50.8 in May from 52.2 in April, marking its second lowest level on record. This decline reflects growing concerns among consumers about the economy.
▪️Year ahead inflation expectations surged to 7.3% in May, up from 6.5% in April, reaching the highest level since 1981.
▪️Long run inflation expectations also rose to 4.6% from 4.4% the previous month.
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▪️The Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 50.8 in May from 52.2 in April, marking its second lowest level on record. This decline reflects growing concerns among consumers about the economy.
▪️Year ahead inflation expectations surged to 7.3% in May, up from 6.5% in April, reaching the highest level since 1981.
▪️Long run inflation expectations also rose to 4.6% from 4.4% the previous month.
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☀️ Weekly market outlook
▪️what data to look for?
▪️What are the key drivers?
▪️What is the sentiment?
🆔 STBprovider
🌐 STBbrokers
▪️what data to look for?
▪️What are the key drivers?
▪️What is the sentiment?
🆔 STBprovider
🌐 STBbrokers
☀️ Australia cash rates
▪️The RBA has cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking the second rate cut this year. This is the first time the rate has fallen below 4% since 2023.
▪️Headline inflation has dropped to 2.4%, and trimmed mean inflation to 2.9%, both within the RBA’s 2–3% target band.
▪️The RBA lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1% and household consumption growth to 1.9%, citing global economic uncertainties.
▪️Lower rates are expected to reduce mortgage repayments and stimulate borrowing, potentially pushing up housing demand and prices.
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▪️The RBA has cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking the second rate cut this year. This is the first time the rate has fallen below 4% since 2023.
▪️Headline inflation has dropped to 2.4%, and trimmed mean inflation to 2.9%, both within the RBA’s 2–3% target band.
▪️The RBA lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1% and household consumption growth to 1.9%, citing global economic uncertainties.
▪️Lower rates are expected to reduce mortgage repayments and stimulate borrowing, potentially pushing up housing demand and prices.
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☀️ Canada CPI data
▪️Annual inflation rate is 1.7% , down from 2.3% in March. Monthly Change was -0.1%
CPI Median: 3.2%
CPI Trim: 3.1%
Both core measures reached 13 month highs
▪️key contributors:
-Energy prices -12.7%
-Gasoline -18.1%
-Natural gas -14.1%
-Grocery prices +3.8%
-Fresh or frozen beef +16.2%
-Coffee and tea +13.4%
-Travel tour prices +6.7%
▪️Canadian dollar appreciated modestly post release
Odds of a Bank of Canada rate cut on June 4 decreased from 65% to 48%
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▪️Annual inflation rate is 1.7% , down from 2.3% in March. Monthly Change was -0.1%
CPI Median: 3.2%
CPI Trim: 3.1%
Both core measures reached 13 month highs
▪️key contributors:
-Energy prices -12.7%
-Gasoline -18.1%
-Natural gas -14.1%
-Grocery prices +3.8%
-Fresh or frozen beef +16.2%
-Coffee and tea +13.4%
-Travel tour prices +6.7%
▪️Canadian dollar appreciated modestly post release
Odds of a Bank of Canada rate cut on June 4 decreased from 65% to 48%
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