SND Geopolitics
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I've kinda never believed anything was gonna happen because World Leaders all play the same game of staying in power through dynamics, but I think especially this years theres been a serious degradation of world stability especially the current World Order to the point, that leaders across the world are seriously splitting and we're seeing less and less diplomacy being used.
Russia reportedly plans to produce around 10,000 Dan-T cruise missiles in 2027 for strikes on Ukraine, according to Ukrainian veteran and analyst kriegsforscher. He says the missile has a range of 500 km and carries a 135 kg warhead. As of August, it can be launched from ground platforms as well as Su-25SM3, Su-30SM, Su-34 and Su-57 aircraft and the Mi-28 helicopter. Russia is reportedly considering replacing the S8000 Banderol with the Dan-T, which is around 35% cheaper.
Forwarded from Kalibrated (Scott)
There has been significant noise surrounding the recent visit by CIA director John Ratcliffe to Moscow which was presented as a warning to Russian leadership. According to numerous sources the U.S. received viable intelligence confirming a political shift within the Kremlin allowing for more escalatory and Kinetic action against NATO members who are directly supporting the war in Ukraine. Many people have been downplaying this as a political move by Washington which is always a possibility but I have a different perspective on it which has been partially influenced by private conversations with a source inside the Russian MOD. The recent public acknowledgment of Russian intelligence being used by Iran to conduct more effective strikes against US targets in the region was the first step in this shift to a more aggressive approach. With the U.S. now overextended in the ME the timing window for Russia is open. The idea is not an invasion of NATO territory but rather minimal antagonistic action which reaches and potentially crosses the line for NATO articles to be triggered. The U.S. is in no position to intervene and this opens up the opportunity to sow disillusion within the outer NATO states, much like we’ve seen with the gulf states. As soon as that first infringement by Russia is ignored or downplayed the gates open and the entire idea behind NATO is destroyed. I would be looking for more aggressive, cruise missile pathing, potentially drone strikes on areas within NATO nations directly on the border with Ukraine, who are supporting military actions, greater sabotage operations in NATO nations and more aggressive action to defend Russias “shadow fleet” in international waters.

The time has now come for compensatory action by Russia and to use its position of leverage against a distracted hegemon.
Forwarded from Tabz - Live News (Rayden Skahyv)
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🇰🇷 — A test launch of two South Korean Shahed-like suicide drones resulted in failure, with the two drones crashing in the sea right after being launched.
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Forwarded from AMK Mapping
Yes. It’s a deterrence strategy against America’s illegal war of aggression against an independent state. The ships can choose not to traverse the strait if there’s a risk.
Forwarded from AMK Mapping
"It's only an act of aggression if someone other than us does it"
🇺🇸/🇮🇷 IRGC Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi:

‘We expected to achieve victory against the United States, because God is with us and we are confident in his promise and support.

But honestly, we did not think it would be this easy.’

@Middle_East_Spectator
🇺🇸/🇮🇷 IRGC Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi:

‘Our assessment of the capabilities of the U.S. armed forces was greater than what turned out to be the case. They greatly exaggerated their capabilities.

The image we had of the United States has now collapsed, and it has become clear that the aircraft carriers and fighter jets turned out not to be that important.’

@Middle_East_Spectator
👏1
Forwarded from AMK Mapping
Here's a clearer map showing how small the remaining 3% of the "liveable" parts of Donbas, with continued day-to-day civilian life, is.

This area includes the majority of the cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, the towns of Novodonetske, Cherkaske, and Oleksandrivka, and various smaller villages.
Forwarded from AMK Mapping
Current zones of mandatory evacuation for civilian families in the remaining parts of Donetsk Oblast under Ukrainian control:

The evacuation zones (yellow) in areas under Ukrainian control cover an area of approximately 2,520 km² out of ~4,130 km² of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Oblast, which equates to about 61% of the territory.

Just 1,610 km² of Donetsk Oblast remain in an area with only recommended evacuation orders, rather than mandatory. That means that approximately 94% of the region is either under Russian control or under mandatory evacuations (effectively meaning they are "dead" areas).

This equates to about 97% of the total area of Donbas being either under Russian control, or "dead" areas, with only around 3% of Donbas being liveable areas under Ukrainian control.

Additionally, approximately 30% of Slovyansk city and 10% of Kramatorsk city are part of these evacuation zones, which include the most dangerous streets and neighbourhoods.

A total of 92,932 civilians remain in Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Oblast, and 0 in Ukrainian-controlled Luhansk Oblast. This number has more than halved since January 2026, when it was reported at 192,600. It has decreased by nearly 40,000 in just the last 2 months.

In the coming months, the final areas of Donetsk Oblast will be declared areas of mandatory evacuation, and the region will become the second in Ukraine (other than Crimea) after Luhansk to officially be either fully occupied, or "dead".

The end of 2026 may finally mark the end of Donbas as an area of Ukrainian society, after nearly 13 years of war.
And with that comes the new round of negotiations and Putin's ordered ceasefire yesterday FYI
❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: We now know what the target of yesterday’s launches was; Iran targeted a U.S. aircraft carrier with anti-ship ballistic missiles for the first time

Until now, Iran had refrained from using this high-end weapon (likely the Khalij-e-Fars ASBM) due to fear it would provoke a massive American retaliation.

No hits on the carrier were recorded, but CENTCOM admitted that the USS George Washington was forced to perform evasive maneuvers.

@Middle_East_Spectator
— NOTE: During the Red Sea crisis, in what the United States called ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’, several Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles managed to get so close to the USS Truman aircraft carrier that it was forced to perform sharp turns, resulting in an F/A-18 ‘Hornet’ falling overboard

Anti-ship ballistic missiles, contrary to ordinary anti-ship cruise missiles or drones, pose a real significant threat to U.S. Navy vessels, and their usage by Iran marks a significant escalation.

@Middle_East_Spectator
❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiyaa Central Command warns that if the U.S. naval blockade remains and the U.S. continues to target Iranian civilian ships, Iran will increase its targeting of U.S. Navy vessels and expand the scope of naval warfare

@Middle_East_Spectator
Btw the reason i dont post much here for days
I forget the channel exist ☠️
❗️🇸🇦/🇾🇪 NEW: Ansarallah (the Houthis) have taken control of the strategic heights of Al-Kudha, cutting off the connection between Taizz and Yemen’s western coast

Ansarallah is attempting to gain control over Jabal Habashi, which would give it fire control over all remaining roads into Taiz.

In the Al-Khokha direction, fierce battles are taking place over the strategic intersection town of Hays.

@Middle_East_Spectator
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🇺🇸/🇮🇷 WATCH: For the first time, Iran has released footage showing the IRGC Navy targeting violating oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz

@Middle_East_Spectator
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❗️🇾🇪/🇸🇦 NEW: Yemeni ballistic missiles impact the city of Taizz, controlled by Saudi-backed PLC forces

NOTE: Authenticity of the video cannot be determined, but the besieged city is for sure under attack.

@Middle_East_Spectator