More broadly, the very minute details and observances by planewatchers, shortwave listeners, and hobbyists alike are extremely early indicators of some kind of strategic event. These observances are at the very bleeding edge of what is possible to perceive within the open source world, and must be weighted accordingly. It is impossible to make decisions based on so little data, so right now all of this is just evidence supporting the hunch that strategic moves are being made. The CIA Director flying to Moscow at the same time 5x "Doomsday" communications planes are active in the US, and the Russians are more active on their own strategic radio frequencies...is all extremely coincidental to be nothing. Much more analysis will be needed to maybe determine what's going on but as it stands, high-level diplomatic and strategic moves continue behind the scenes, as both the war in Ukraine and Iran remain in the balance.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z August 27, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CAR BOMB KILLS COLONEL IN RUSSIA. IRAN STRIKES TANKER IN HORMUZ. LARGE-SCALE CYBERATTACKS TARGET AMERICAN GOVERNMENT AGENCIES.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-
Middle East: Overnight, Iran struck another tanker vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel has been identified as the M/T AL SALAM II, a Kuwaiti-owned tanker attempting to exit the Gulf.
Analyst Comment: Claims are circulating that Iran conducted this strike using underwater drones, similarly to claims that were made last week regarding Iran using underwater drones to conduct attacks. There is no way to verify this either way, but if true, this would be the second such attack on a vessel this month.
Russia: This morning an assassination was carried out in St. Petersburg, which took the form of an IED exploding inside the vehicle of a Russian Air Force Lieutenant Colonel. The man (who has not yet been identified) was killed instantly, and his wife remains in critical condition following the blast.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Within the United States, various federal databases have been hacked by malign actors, including the systems used by high-level government agencies. The DoJ alleged that the Nanjing Xinjiuwei Network Technology Company was responsible for compromising the systems used by the Federal Reserve, three different National Laboratories, the National Institute of Health, and several other unnamed agencies. On the same day, the ATF also disclosed that systems related to their gun registries were breached. The Chinese hacking group Qilin posted the ransomware disclosure on their website, claiming to have a trove of unspecified documents that they stole from the ATF.
These confirmed cyberattacks continue the trend that has been building over the past few weeks. From the cyberattacks on water treatment facilities a couple of weeks ago, to federal agencies being hacked in undisclosed ways, the war on the cyber front is palpable. This cyberwarfare has not been confined to the United States either; at the exact same time that unknown hackers were taking out the water infrastructure in Minnesota, the United Kingdom reported that one of their power plants was hacked and taken offline for a total of four days. This afternoon, Manchester Airport Group announced that another major cyberattack has breached the data of over 8.7 million customers who traveled through three airports in the U.K.
As the United States and Iran continue their latest stage of the war, and Russia and Ukraine continue their war, these cyberattacks are probably going to get a lot worse, both in the scale of what systems are affected, but also the types of targets selected. So far, none of the groups engaging in cyberattacks have demonstrated any hesitancy to avoid targeting civilian targets...these groups on all sides will exploit any vulnerability they find, particularly to target a civilian populace. As civilian critical infrastructure around the world remains vastly more vulnerable than government networks...when those government networks themselves are constantly proven to not be safe, much softer targets are very likely to be impacted more severely as global tensions continue.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z August 28, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TARGETING CONTINUES IN UKRAINE. WAR IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS AS BEFORE. ANOTHER COMMUNICATIONS INCIDENT REPORTED INVOLVING MARINE ONE IN WASHINGTON D.C.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Europe: Following yesterday's assassination in St. Petersburg, long-range Russian and Ukrainian drone attacks continued. Several more warehouses and logistical hubs were hit within Ukraine, and this morning Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Tu-95 Bear H parked on the apron at Engels Airbase in Saratov.

United Kingdom: This morning a large fire was reported at an industrial warehouse in London, near Wembley Stadium. Local authorities state that this facility was a waste processing facility located next to an Amazon warehouse (which was evacuated due to the fire). The cause of the fire is not known at this time.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - This morning an incident was reported aboard the Presidential MARINE ONE helicopter, while President Trump was onboard. The tower at Reagan National experienced communications issues with MARINE ONE, which involved radio transmissions being dropped between the helicopter and the tower.

Analyst Comment: As the protection and transportation of the President is a zero-fail mission, what would ordinarily be a minor issue becomes a mission-critical failure. Ordinarily, today's incident would be a minor issue for any other aircraft, as it's not uncommon for minor comms issues to be present within the world of aviation and not being able to contact the tower for a few seconds is hardly groundbreaking news in most other circumstances. However, little mistakes become big ones in D.C, especially considering the wider implications.

If the most important aircraft in the country has to relay comms to the tower via other aircraft, that is a national security concern. If this were an isolated incident it would be nothing more than something to mention at a turnover briefing for the day, but Washington Tower has a long history of major incidents: From fistfights in tower last year, to the deaths of 67x people during the AA5342 disaster, and even the incidents involving MARINE ONE just a few weeks ago, the management of the personnel and communications systems at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport have been persistent issues that present very real risks to the National Capitol Region.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, the situation remains much the same as before, with a brief lull in the targeting efforts being undertaken overnight by Iran. This lull came to an end this afternoon, after another vessel was targeted in the Strait of Hormuz, with unknown success. On the American side, there's lots of rumor and talk behind the scenes regarding the overall strategic plan, most of which is only a loose indicator of how the war is going. This morning Axios leaked details pertaining to several Foreign Ministers around the Middle East being told by SECSTATE Marco Rubio, that the US is probably not going to resume kinetic targeting until at least after the midterms. While the sourcing of this is dubious at best, this does make sense based on how things have gone over the past month. Months ago, the war lasting until next year (at minimum) sounded laughably unlikely, but at this stage, this timeline seems realistic. The one determining factor is the underlying energy crisis, and what happens when a global maritime choke point remains in the conflict zone for this long. Uncharted territory is ahead, and in terms of the tactical situation on the ground, no indicators are present that suggest the conflict will reach a point of conclusion anytime soon.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's Intel Update is out! Increasingly more serious wars overseas have brought about homeland concerns this week, and the information war on all sides makes finding the truth much more difficult. https://youtu.be/zSBxhBoDtZg

//The Wire//2300Z August 31, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR REIGNITES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AFTER AMERICAN STRIKES REPORTED IN IRAN. RETALIATORY STRIKES REPORTED IN JORDAN AND THE UAE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Over the weekend, the war resumed it's more kinetic phase as the United States carried out strikes on Iran. Larak Island was the primary target, with strikes taking place to target Iranian rocket launchers that were preparing to launch rockets suspected of carrying sea mines. Locals report that two launchers were struck, killing two soldiers.

In retaliation, Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles, all targeting US bases in the region. Jordan and the UAE reported strikes targeting airbases used by the United States, but the success rate is unknown. Initial imagery obtained via the Sentinel-2 sensors indicates a hanger and a barracks building might have been hit at Muwwafaq al Salti. Footage provided by locals indicates that at least two Iranian ballistic missiles were successfully intercepted, but it's likely that at least several got through missile defenses to strike at least two bases in Jordan.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Once more into the breach, so it seems. The grand question now is whether or not the weekend strikes will continue to escalate. The White House has stated that the US will respond to Iran's counterattack with a counter-counterattack, and as it stands, more targeting is likely. More broadly, the weekend targeting confirms several different lingering theories. For one, diplomacy is completely off of the table for now. Many people theorized that the past month of essentially very little fighting was a prelude to an exit strategy. However, conducting strikes during a lull in the fighting is not indicative of any kind of diplomatic intent to end the war.

Secondly, conducting strikes targeting sea mine launchers also directly confirms that Iran has this capability. For years, it has been widely known that Iran has the ability to lay mines in the Strait via rockets (without ever sending boats out), but how effective they are at such has been hotly debated over the years. The fact that the US hit these launcher sites confirms that this capability and threat is genuine enough to warrant kinetic action.

Also of note, President Trump posted two AI-generated videos on his Truth Social account last night, depicting the United States blowing up Kharg Island. As of this morning, Kharg Island (which is at the opposite end of the Gulf) has not been targeted during this latest round of strikes. The intent of posting AI-generated videos regarding kinetic targeting is not clear. This could be a classically flamboyant Trump post, or it could be intended to deceive people who might not understand that they are not real videos. Even more concerningly, President Trump himself might believe it to be a genuine video (or an AI approximation of a real-world event). One might think that this would be preposterous (because the videos are obviously AI), but the precedent has already been set in Congress....AI-generated content that claims to be real footage has already been used by members of Congress on the House floor several times over the past year. AI models are already blurring the line between fiction and reality, and now the line is blurred even further, if the White House is going to start providing AI-generated content of airstrikes that never happened. When it comes to corroborating what has been targeted via other governmental agencies, the picture is not so clear either: The CENTCOM social media page on X did not disclose the fact that strikes took place. However, CENTCOM did issue one of their infamous "fact check" posts, which indirectly confirms that they did conduct strikes in Iran (though they did not confirm the exact location of those strikes). Where we go from here is anyone's guess, but the truth of what's going on on the ground is getting harder to discern.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 1, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNITED STATES LAUNCHES NEW WAVES OF ATTACKS IN MIDDLE EAST. IRAN RETALIATES BY STRIKING AMERICAN AIRBASES AND MULTIPLE TANKERS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. RUSSIA CONFIRMS MATERIEL SUPPORT FOR IRAN. SECRETARY OF THE ARMY RESIGNS IN WASHINGTON. IEDS DISCOVERED AT ELECTRICAL SUBSTATION IN GERMANY.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-
Middle East: Overnight, Iranian targeting of merchant shipping continued, with a total of 3-4x vessels being struck since the targeting in the Strait of Hormuz re-ignited over the weekend. At least two of these targeting efforts involved VLCC tankers being struck as they attempted to exit the gulf. The M/T SIDR and the M/T SENEGAL PROSPERITY were hit by unidentified munitions (one of these ships was hit three times), with the effect of the targeting being a halt of their transit through the Strait.
This afternoon, the United States conducted larger-scale attacks on Iran, continuing the strikes that kicked off the fighting again over the weekend. The United States struck targets on Qeshm Island, Sirik Island, the port of Chabarhar, and several other targets along the Iranian coastline. After these strikes took place, Iran launched more missiles at American bases throughout the region (mostly in Jordan and Kuwait). As of this report over 20x Iranian ballistic missiles have been launched, with the launches continuing into the evening.
Europe: Over the past few days, the war in Ukraine has become increasingly more serious, as Russian and Ukrainian attacks on each others' infrastructure have intensified. Over the past two days, large-scale waves of drone and missile attacks have been reported, with Russia and Ukraine focusing on targeting Kiev and St. Petersburg respectively. Several dozen smaller cities on both sides have also reported missile and drone impacts within the past 48 hours.
Germany: This morning several explosive devices were discovered near a electrical substation at the Jänschwalde Power Plant southeast of Berlin. Several IEDs were discovered at this location by workers, though the exact number and composition of the devices has not yet been disclosed.
Analyst Comment: Details of what actually happened at this substation are very hard to come by. Initial reports suggested that workers found IEDs at the site, but throughout the afternoon other reports emerged indicating that these were actually warheads from improvised mortars/rockets, which landed at the substation and failed to explode and/or had a different purpose altogether. Some reports from local sources in the community claim that rockets were found that contained "conductive material" which were fired over the top of electrical transmission lines at this location. This undescribed conductive material caused an electrical short on two transmission lines, which took out the power for a few hours. If these details are accurate, this would be a deliberate infrastructure attack, though the culprits could be anyone from climate groups, to foreign nationstates. More details are expected as the situation develops.
Kyrgyzstan: As part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian for a series of press conferences and brief talks. During the media events, President Putin directly stated that Russia is providing resources to Iran to help circumvent the effects of the American blockade on Iranian ports.
Analyst Comment: While this is certainly no big secret, Putin saying this openly is a message to the United States, which is probably a tit-for-tat response to the global west arming Ukraine for years. Though it is largely forgotten, Iran actually does share a border with Russia, but it's not by land...it's via the Caspian Sea. Russian boats can easily transfer large amounts of cargo to Iranian ports on the northern coast of Iran, in addition to the large-scale railway projects in the northern districts, which serve as vital logistical lines to Russia and China.
-HomeFront-

Mississippi: Yesterday afternoon, a major fire was reported at an industrial facility in Laurel, which began after a truck caught fire near a paint locker at the Howard Industries facility which produces electrical transformers. The initial fire sparked a much larger blaze that consumed much of the main factory complex as well as the storage yard for large transformers.
Analyst Comment: The U.S. imports about 80% of the electrical transformers needed to keep the electrical grid functioning, and as recently as May of this year, the industry was facing a dire shortage of transformers (a shortage which has been problematic for years). Howard Industries is a major domestic US producer of transformers, producing over 10 million transformers that are still in service around the nation. This company has a total of 14 different factories around the state, but even just one facility being offline (and the stored transformers being lost in the fire) will probably negatively impact the nationwide shortage of these critically-needed components.
Washington D.C. - Last night Dan Driscoll, the Secretary of the Army, reportedly tendered his resignation to President Trump. Dave Fitzgerald, the Deputy Undersecretary of the Army is also expected to resign sometime this week.
Analyst Comment: These resignations are extremely important, and very significant during a time of war. Normally, the resignation of the Secretary of the Army during an active conflict is something that is a major indicator of things not going well in upper management circles, however the terms of Driscoll's resignation also add more fuel to the fire. Allegedly, Driscoll resigned due to clashes with SECWAR Hegseth regarding the operational readiness of the Army. Officially, Driscoll's resignation has not been confirmed from official sources, and he himself has not commented on the reasons for his departure, so until he does, it could be for any number of reasons. However, the timing of the resignation the day after the war reignites (and indications are growing of shaping operations being prepared), is quite coincidental for this to be unrelated.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: It will take a few more days before the dust settles and proper assessments of battle damage can be conducted regarding the latest rounds of targeting both in the Middle East and in Ukraine. As it stands right now, the war in Ukraine remains very hot and very active, and the war in the Middle East has ebbed and flowed as the United States adopts more of a "mowing the lawn" approach to the conflict (or at least, that seems to be the motivation for the latest round of strikes).

Separately, time is running out on the petroleum front, and the attempts to mitigate the energy crisis have not been as effective as hoped for. The American operation to shuttle tankers back-and-forth through the Strait, to play a grand shell game of shuttling oil from ship-to-ship once in the Gulf of Oman has had some positive impact. How much impact is hard to say, because how the data is being counted can be framed in many different ways to support various contradictory arguments, but right now (as per Kpler) the bottom-line figure for how much oil is exiting the Gulf via the Strait is 8.6 million bbl/day (or at least it was during the lull over the past month). Since Kpler did not factor in the Saudi East-West pipeline for this figure, we have to add that critical resource to the overall total. However Kpler also confirmed that as of July, these two pipelines that are supposedly rated for allowing around 7 million barrels per day to bypass the Strait...were only resulting in a total export of 1 million barrels, a fraction of what the ecosystem is rated for. The reason for this, is the bottleneck at the ports. Even loading oil onto ships as fast as humanly possible, they can only manage to get 1 million barrels out per day. It doesn't matter how fast the oil flows through a pipeline, if it cannot flow onto ships at the same rate, and right now, the oil terminals on the Saudi coastline are the weakest link in the chain. These bottlenecks, combined with the Houthi attacks on the Jazan refinery, have sharply reduced the main alternative method for bypassing the Strait with at least some petroleum product.
Around the region more optimistic reports indicate that, all total, as much as half of the world's pre-war needs have been met by the efforts to get oil out of the Gulf region. Even with all of the tricks we've tried (and factoring in Omani-shuttle operations AND the Saudi bypass pipeline), we're only reaching "half of normal", at best.
As this 8.6 million bbl/day figure is the absolute maximum theoretical figure (due to much of this oil being secretly transferred between ships as part of the shell game), there is variance in the data. Regardless of how it's counted, 8.6 million barrels is most assuredly welcome, but it's still nowhere near enough to prevent the civilization-level energy crisis that the entire planet is experiencing at present. Now that the tit-for-tat strikes have resumed over the past few days, this absolute-best-case-scenario figure of 9 million barrels per day is likely to be reduced quite a bit.
Looking forward over the next few weeks, this crisis will probably be complicated even further by a decline in demand; most major prediction models project a decline in demand due to the petroleum shortage going on for so long now. Also, the American Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) will be running dry soon, to the point that tank-bottom will be approaching within a couple of weeks, if the current rates of release continue. Now that the war has resumed somewhat (and oil prices are spiking), solutions do not look very likely for the time being.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z September 2, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SABOTAGE ATTACK TARGETS SECOND GERMAN ELECTRICAL SUBSTATION. SHOOTING REPORTED BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AGENCIES IN UKRAINE. IRANIAN ATTACKS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, TARGETING AMERICAN BASES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Last night's attacks by Iran were somewhat successful, with strikes being reported at the airport in Erbil. An Iranian Shahed-type drone also took out the Persistent Threat Detection System (PTDS) balloon at this location, in addition to striking the fuel point. In Bahrain, several Shahed-type drones targeted the former headquarters of 5th Fleet in Manama and Sheikh Isa Airbase to the south. Several locations were also targeted in Kuwait, with unknown success. As of this report, the United States has not yet responded to the round of Iranian targeting conducted overnight.

Ukraine: Overnight a small arms skirmish was reported in Kiev, which reportedly involved two different Ukrainian governmental agencies engaging each other in the street. Allegedly, the Security Service of Ukraine (the SBU, which is like a uniformed and militarized version of the FBI) detained Stepan Kaplunov who was the deputy commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps, a unit of ethnic Russians fighting on Ukraine's side during the war. Kaplunov was staying at a residential building in Kiev for Independence Day celebrations last week, when he was reportedly abducted for unknown reasons. After this kidnapping, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (the GUR, or the main military intelligence unit) launched an investigation into why the SBU took him, which resulted in a scuffle and subsequent shootout at the scene of the earlier abduction. One GUR officer is dead, and several others were wounded during the initial engagement.

Analyst Comment: As one might expect, Ukrainian sources are downplaying this incident, and Russian sources are trying to amplify it, so determining the truth is challenging. However the incident did take place, and the small arms engagement in the street between these two agencies was captured on film.

As it stands, video evidence from the time of the shooting indicates that tensions were high between the SBU and the GUR right before shots were fired. Both agencies were arguing with each other, with the SBU refusing to allow the GUR into the crime scene, and a standoff situation emerged. As the agencies continued arguing and fighting with each other, eventually the altercation became physical, and devolved into a shooting. After the shooting, the standoff situation continued throughout the night and the next morning. Eventually, the SBU ended up releasing Kaplunov, ending the incident. Several prominent Ukrainian leaders have called for an investigation into what happened, and for more details to be made public.

Germany: Yesterday afternoon, another electrical substation was targeted by malign actors conducting sabotage operations. Locals observed an explosion and arcing at the Bergheim Power Station in western Germany, shortly before the power went out. Local authorities state that 6x rocket launch sites were located in a field near the second substation that was attacked, continuing the same attack vector as witnessed at a different power station yesterday.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Germany, the attacks on electrical substations over the past two days have been substantial. In short, these attacks were probably not carried out by amateurs. Locals report that upwards of twenty separate rockets were launched over the top of the substation near Berlin. These rockets were not fireworks, but specifically constructed devices built for the task. These rockets were also trailing thin copper wire, which was intended to cause electrical shorts.

This is not entirely a new tactic, after all the United States pioneered this tactic of taking out enemy substations with "blackout bombs" that operate very similarly. Cruise missiles were used to deploy such devices over Baghdad during the initial invasion of Iraq in 2003, with thin graphite wires being trailed over the top of exposed substation transformers and electrical connectors. More recently, an unidentified malign actor also attempted to target an electrical substation in Pennsylvania back in 2020, which resulted in widespread media coverage at the time.

Malign actors using almost thirty rockets to achieve the same effect in Germany is a substantial escalation that is not likely to have been undertaken by non-state actors. Germany is infamous for having some of the more serious ecoterrorists around the world, who have conducted IED attacks, train derailings, and other similar attacks on electrical infrastructure. However, since no ecoterrorist organization has claimed credit yet, right now the leading theory is that these sabotage operations could be sleeper cells conducting attacks around the German countryside.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z September 3, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SABOTAGE ATTACKS CONTINUE IN GERMANY AND POLAND. IRANIAN ATTACKS CONTINUE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. MASS SHOOTING REPORTED AT RESIDENTIAL BUILDING IN MINNEAPOLIS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Overnight, Iran conducted another round of drone and missile strikes, mostly targeting American bases in Kuwait. Satellite imagery of the American bases in Jordan also indicate that some Iranian missiles evaded defenses to strike their targets, but full battle damage assessments will take some time, as high resolution imagery is not yet available. This afternoon, reports of more Iranian missile launches have emerged, and the situation continues to develop by the hour.

Germany: This morning the sabotage attacks continued throughout the country. Two Bulgarian nationals were arrested in Munich after throwing a Molotov incendiary device at the headquarters for Rohde and Schwarz, a major defense contractor of communications and radar equipment.

Poland: Local authorities have announced that they are treating an industrial fire that tool place over the weekend as a potential act of state-sponsored terrorism. The WB Electronics factory in Skarzysko-Kamienna reported a fire at their facility a few days ago, which is assessed by Polish authorities to be an act of sabotage caried out by foreign intelligence services.

-HomeFront-

Minnesota: Yesterday evening a shooting was reported at an apartment building, which resulted in multiple fatalities. Local authorities initially responded to reports of shots fired on an upper floor of Loring Towers, a Section 8 residential housing facility. Upon arrival, police were immediately engaged with small arms by at least one shooter. A total of three fatalities were reported as a result of the engagement, including the shooter and two unidentified individuals. Three officers were also severely wounded during the engagement. The suspect has been identified as Carlton Johnson II, who had a long history of threatening residents in this building with firearms.


-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The shadow war throughout Europe has remained hot this week, and very few people seem to realize the severity of the situation. To be sure, there is a solid argument for thinking that at least some of the attacks in Europe might be false-flag attacks intended to draw the global west further into the war. However, just because an incident might be a false-flag attack, doesn't mean it isn't a genuine threat....At the end of the day, if you step on an IED while walking your dog in the German countryside, it doesn't matter who planted it there, the result to the victim is the same. Right now, the lines are blurred to the point that attributing cause or culprit is nearly impossible for most attacks, but the explosions continue nonetheless. Daily attacks/incidents in Germany (and now Poland) are probably going to continue for the time being, and regardless of who's actually behind the attacks.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 4, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ENERGY CRISIS CONTINUES TO WORSEN AS GAS PRICES REACH ALL-TIME HIGHS. ANOTHER SABOTAGE ATTACK REPORTED IN GERMANY. RUSSIA AND UKRAINE CONTINUE TO ESCALATE TARGETING EFFORTS. IRANIAN TARGETING CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-
Middle East: This afternoon Iran conducted more strikes around the region, allegedly targeting American bases in Jordan. The United States has disputed these specific launches, however locals have provided videos of the missiles in the air. Battle damage reports are expected by morning, when new satellite imagery products become available.
Yemen: Clashes between the Houthis and Saudi-backed Yemeni forces escalated as both sides conducted strikes on each other overnight. Fighting has being reported in western regions of the country and several missile launches have been reported throughout the night, though most missiles appear to have targeted locations inside Yemen.
Germany: Yesterday evening another possible sabotage attack on an electrical substation was reported in Dormagen-Gohr. Local authorities responded to reports of at least one rocket launcher being emplaced near a substation, complete with copper wire and a timer mechanism. Separately, German police in Cologne stated that they received a letter from Vulkangruppe claiming credit for at least one of the attacks this week.
Analyst Comment: Vulkangruppe is an infamous ecoterrorist organization that is well known for conducting sabotage attacks on critical infrastructure around the country. Whether or not this group actually is the culprit, will be a part of the investigation. Homemade rocket launchers trailing copper wire set up on timers is a level of sophistication that would be a big leap from what Vulkangruppe has conducted in the past, so they might just be taking credit for attacks that were committed by somebody else. Nevertheless, if it is ecoterrorists trying to conduct attacks, these incidents are taking place at a time of maximum pressure within Germany.
Russia/Ukraine: Attacks continue to escalate by both sides, with Ukraine intensifying attacks on the Russian port of Sochi. Ukrainian drone boats carried out strikes targeting Russian shipping in the port, with at least one boat being intercepted. In the city of Adler to the south, Ukrainian drones successfully struck a Russian SAM system near the local airport.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: On the energy crisis front, the situation continues to deteriorate further. This morning the national average for diesel climbed to the all-time high of $5.85 per gallon. During the month of August, the national average for gasoline reached a high point never before seen in history, with the national average remaining over $4.00 per gallon every single day of the month. Spikes in gas prices due to sporadic targeting and market speculation notwithstanding, the energy crisis has crept into more serious territory as the war in the Middle East doesn't just continue, but continues to escalate.

Over the past few days, the White House has touted the recent deal with Venezuela to take control of a portion of their oil industry, and provide access to 17 different oil fields, which are assessed to contain roughly 65 million barrels of crude. The main concern, is that it will take many years to actually get that oil out of the ground. Right now, Venezuela is assessed to be providing an absolute maximum of 1.25 million barrels of crude per day, all total. Due to the earthquake and the recent political upheaval in the wake of the capture of Maduro, investments in Venezuela have been rather tepid, with most American oil companies not being enthusiastic about ramping up operations during a time of uncertainly. Just from purely a numbers game, if Venezuela were to increase their output by ten times they would be able to make up a little more than half of the oil that transited through the Strait of Hormuz each day, before the war. At this point, every single barrel that can be reliably provided each day is valued greatly, but it's going to be several more years before Venezuela is able to even put a dent in the daily American demand for oil.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! This week, the war reignites in the Middle East, and the Hybrid War is escalating in Europe. With the targeting becoming more substantial on both fronts, serious developments are on the horizon: https://youtu.be/VZaKIjyxZHg

//The Wire//2300Z September 7, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNITED STATES ANNOUNCES EYE-FOR-AN-EYE TARGETING STRATEGY OF MERCHANT SHIPPING IN THE MIDDLE EAST. UKRAINE CONTINUES TARGETING OF MERCHANT SHIPPING IN MEDITERRANEAN SEA. PLANE CRASH OBSERVED AT MIAMI AIRPORT, MULTIPLE FATALITIES REPORTED.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-
Middle East: Over the weekend, the general situation remained as before. This morning, Iranian forces reportedly launched two cruise missiles toward a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, with unknown success. Otherwise, CENTCOM announced that the M/T KYLO has sunk at undisclosed coordinates in the Gulf of Oman. In Saudi Arabia, Houthi attacks from this morning targeted the Jazan Refinery once again, with locals observing large smoke plumes in the vicinity of the facility.
Analyst Comment: Jazan had just come back online after making repairs due to the latest round of Houthi strikes. Less than a week after the refinery was due to come back online, the Houthis hit it again.
Lebanon: Israeli attacks have intensified with a new series of attacks being reported over the weekend. Significant bombing runs were reported throughout Nabatiyeh, mostly focusing on striking residential structures in the town of Kfar Rumman.
Mediterranean: Overnight Ukrainian forces targeted a Russian cargo ship off the coast of Crete. The M/V LADY MARIIA was struck by Ukrainian drones while reportedly carrying a cargo of Iranian weapons, which Iran was allegedly attempting to export to Russia.
-HomeFront-
Florida: Yesterday evening a plane crash was reported at Miami International Airport, after a cargo aircraft overran the runway. Prime Air Flight 7598 (an Amazon cargo plane) made a rough landing on Runway 30, touching down farther down the runway than usual. The aircraft also possibly had issues with their left landing gear, as indicated by video evidence of the landing. The aircraft failed to stop in the allotted distance, and either overran or missed the Engineered Materials Arresting System (EMAS). Once off the runway, the aircraft skidded across NW 67th Avenue, striking multiple vehicles that were on the road. A total of 5x fatalities were reported, and several others wounded.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Following the intensification of airstrikes on commercial shipping over the weekend, the United States has altered the Commander's Intent with regards to the American targeting of commercial shipping. Per Secretary of War Hegseth, the United States will target Iranian noncombatant civilian ships for every attempt by Iran to strike an American warship.
In terms of targeting doctrine, conducting kinetic strikes on civilian ships can be interpreted in several ways. Kinetically targeting a ship so as to disable it's movement due to noncompliance with boarding procedures in one's own territorial waters is normally considered acceptable under current international maritime norms. However, verbally stating that random noncombatants will be sunk for no other purpose than for revenge, is generally not in keeping with the Department of Defense Law of War Manual, which states on page 200 that "Combatants may make military objectives the object of attack, but may not direct attacks against civilians, civilian objects, or other protected persons and objects."
The deliberate targeting of random civilian ships purely for reasons of revenge/reprisal and NOT for reasons of self-defense or due to Hostile Intent or Hostile Action, is a new milestone, and the public statements by Admiral Brad Cooper and SECWAR Hegseth don't leave much room for interpretation. Regardless of how anyone spins it, in every wartime publication that has been written thus far, this conflict has now transitioned into a state of Unrestricted Warfare, and the follow-on effects of this will probably result in very bad things happening in the very near future, as it becomes common to blur the lines between civilians and military targets.

From Ukraine and Russia striking civilian ships in the Black Sea, to Iran and the United States striking civilian ships in the Middle East...in many cases civilians are no longer protected by the general norms of what it means to be a noncombatant. Of course, Iran has been striking civilian merchants this entire war, so this new policy from the Pentagon does not excuse their behavior. But, the overall impact of the United States engaging in an eye-for-an-eye targeting doctrine is going to be made worse, because Iran has already stated that they will be retaliating in kind.
Reflecting back on what prompted this new targeting milestone, the theories have been circulating for a few days. Over the weekend however, both the Iranian government and CENTCOM have added some context for why the United States struck the three tankers on Friday. Cutting through the narratives on both sides, the most likely explanation is that the Iranians conducted a live-fire operational test of a new missile...and it got way too close for comfort for the U.S. Navy. CENTCOM confirmed that the USS GEORGE WASHINGTON (CVN 73) had to take evasive action to avoid the missile, which is a startling admission that is not normally disclosed publicly, as it is a major indicator that the missile penetrated the Aegis missile defense screen, and possibly entered the aircraft carrier's Terminal Defense Zone...which means it got really close. The missile that was tested has not been named by official sources, but the most likely candidate is the Qasem Basir Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM), which was unveiled in March of last year. As to whether or not the Iranians were engaging in "testing" as they claim, or if that "test" was also intended to actually target the Washington, that would be something only confirmable with the radar track of the projectile itself. Regardless of what the intent was, this effort (and the American retaliation) will keep escalating the war at a time when the energy crisis is reaching new heights.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1300Z September 8, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR REIGNITES BETWEEN SAUDI ARABIA AND THE HOUTHIS, WITH SEVERAL STRIKES REPORTED ON SAUDI POWER PLANTS AND REFINERIES OVERNIGHT. SABOTAGE ATTACKS ON SUBSTATIONS IN GERMANY CONTINUE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Saudi Arabia: Overnight, major escalations occurred between the Saudis and the Houthis, after a few days of fighting snowballed into a wider conflict. After several days of staging forces near Yemeni government sites, the Houthis caught wind of the Saudis preparing for a larger campaign, prompting the Houthis to launch major strikes overnight. The Jazan Refinery was struck again, with abnormal thermal hotspots being observed (which are not normal gas flaring) at much of the facility. To the south, the entire Jazan Bulk Plant remains on fire, and there is a large thermal hotspot near the airport. To the north, the Abha Bulk Plant was hit and remains on fire, and the Asir Power Plant was struck as well.

Germany: More sabotage attacks were reported over the weekend, with more rocket launch sites being located near the Weisweiler Power Plant, the same power plant where the initial rocket tubes were found last week. Separately, German authorities announced the arrest of one suspect who they claim is the only individual suspected of being linked to the series of sabotage attacks on power infrastructure. The suspect has not been identified, and authorities are still investigating whether or not the suspect acted alone.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The Houthi strikes in Saudi Arabia were no-joke, and these are the largest attacks conducted by the Houthis in a long time (possible ever). As a result it is almost certain that the Saudis will have to shut down a significant portion of their oil production due to the damage from the strikes. This will compound the energy crisis, and possibly erase much of the mitigating efforts that have been undertaken to use the Saudi pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. As a reminder, in July Saudi west coast exports dropped below 1 million bbl/day (a fraction of their rated output), which was caused by a combination of export bottlenecks at the ports, and the Houthi strikes causing several major facilities to shut down. The Jazan refinery itself has minimal effect on the export market (it mostly serves domestic Saudi markets), but this many strikes targeting multiple facilities...to include power plants...is a sharp escalation that is going to have wider impact than might be noticeable at first. Since the Yemeni Civil War appears to be ramping up again, this is another front to be concerned about, since the Houthis have confirmed that they can hit the oil terminals at Yanbu and if they so desire, bring Saudi exports nearly to zero.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1300Z September 9, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: INTENSE FIGHTING REPORTED IN MIDDLE EAST. IRAN CAPTURES HIGHLY CLASSIFIED AMERICAN DRONE SUBMARINE. UNITED STATES TARGETS 5X MORE TANKERS IN GULF.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-
Middle East: Major escalations were reported around the region, as the fighting on both sides has intensified back to levels not seen since the height of the war in April. From the United States, attacks on merchant shipping have continued. Overnight, a total of 5x civilian tanker vessels were targeted, some of which were sunk. As of this morning, the full list of ships struck by the United States since yesterday evening is as follows:
M/T RIESCO (IMO: 9251822) - Sunk, Gulf of Oman
M/T DERYA (IMO: 9569700) - Disabled, Kharg Island
M/T HORIZON 1 (IMO: 9130456) - Disabled
M/T KAVIZ (IMO: 9282041) - Disabled
M/T CHARMINAR (IMO: 9318022) - Disabled
From the Iranian side, attacks also escalated sharply overnight, targeting merchant shipping and American bases around the region. These attacks occurred in multiple waves, with the initial waves of missiles being intended to soak up missile interceptors before the most significant second and third waves. As a result of this coordination, substantial missile strikes were reported at Muwaffaq al Salti Airbase, many of which were confirmed to have hit the base. Video evidence from locals confirms that a total of 4x ballistic missile warheads impacted the base. Prince Hassan Airbase was also targeted in a similar manner.
Aside from the targeting of American bases, Iran has claimed to have attacked over 20x commercial vessels in the region overnight. The IRGC-N also claims to have targeted two American Destroyers, the USS JOHN PAUL JONES (DDG-53) and the USS DELBERT D. BLACK (DDG-119). CENTCOM denies that either vessel was hit, but did confirm that evasive action was required, and the United States struck more civilian ships in retaliation.
Within the Gulf, Iranian forces also posted photo and video evidence confirming that Iran has captured a highly classified Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV). One American Dive-LD drone submarine was captured intact by Iran, which was likely being used by the United States to conduct highly precise scans of the seafloor throughout the region, probably in conjunction with mine clearance operations in the Gulf. This platform is one of the most capable submersibles used by the U.S. Navy, and was originally unveiled by Anduril last year.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: A full-blown return to the war is probably already underway throughout the Middle East, and all indicators support a widening and/or intensification of the fighting (at least for the time being, as the Tanker War continues). Last night's targeting efforts on all sides were the most significant seen since the height of the war a few months ago. During the attacks in Jordan, the Iranians appear to have used cluster munitions, though the type is not known (these could have been dozens of bomblets, or these could have been inert devices intended to soak up interceptor missiles so that the actual munition penetrates defenses). The last time this type of munition was used was during the targeting of Israeli military bases during the opening days of the war.

Based on the footage observed overnight, dozens of PAC-2 missiles were spent attempting to intercept Iranian missiles, with just one night of fighting probably expending more munitions than have been used over the past 2-3 months. Locals report that by the time the final waves of Iranian missiles arrived in Jordan, zero interceptors were even launched. As a reminder, based on the recent reports of munitions stockpiles, the US has largely expended most of the newer PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot system, and have been down to mostly the older PAC-2 missiles for several months. The PAC-2 missile is physically larger than the PAC-3, so each PAC-2 battery can hold fewer missiles than one equipped with PAC-3 canisters. The standard Launching Station holds four missile canisters, which can hold either 4x PAC-2 missiles...or 16x PAC-3 CRI missiles. This means that a Patriot system that has been depleted of the PAC-3 missiles, has to mostly rely on a mix of PAC-2 missiles, which reduces the overall total number of interceptors that could be launched during an engagement. This major logistical detail appears to have worked in Iran's favor during last night's attacks, as locals report that over one hundred PAC-2/3 missiles were fired to intercept the dozens of Iranian missiles that targeted American bases throughout Jordan.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z September 10, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: HOUTHIS MAKE MAJOR TERRITORIAL GAINS AS SAUDI-BACKED FORCES COLLAPSE OVERNIGHT. TRUMP AND NETANYAHU BEGIN INCREASING STATEMENTS REGARDING IRANIAN NUCLEAR AMBITIONS. DAMAGE REPORTS EMERGE AFTER THE ESCALATION OF TARGETING THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST YESTERDAY.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Following the large-scale missile strikes in Jordan, a more clear picture of the damage caused by Iran has emerged. MSM reporters with access to closed-sources stated that a total 8x F-15 fighter aircraft were damaged, most of which have been returned to service since the strikes. One additional A-10 ground attack aircraft sustained damage during the strikes, and was damaged beyond repair. In the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian forces have posted a video of the destruction of an American Saildrone Explorer Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV), with the video evidence confirming that the vessel caught fire as a result of the attack.

Yemen: The Houthis have continued their advance on Yemeni government positions, after the Saudi-backed government forces attempted to kick off a renewed ground offensive a few days ago. Houthi forces conducted an attack of their own, which has resulted in major gains being made by Houthi forces over the past 24 hours. The Houthis made advances of several hundred kilometers (in some cases), which concluded with the capture of the city of Mocha. The mass surrender and disbandment of several pro-Saudi factions has been reported as Houthis forces have made some of the most significant advances of the past few years.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - President Trump stated that if the Republicans win both the House and the Senate in midterms, he plans to issue a $5,000 payment to every American.

Separately, Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran is once again attempting to build nuclear weapons, which President Trump also alluded to by recent statements regarding Pickaxe Mountain, where digging and possibly fortification activity has allegedly been observed.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Even though the war in Yemen has been largely classified as a tribal conflict that most people have not cared about for years, the developments in Yemen over the past week have been rather important when viewed in conjunction with the Gulf War. Time and time again, an extremely complicated series of interconnected geopolitical developments can be boiled down to rocks on the beach. In other words, geography and weather are nearly always the most important aspects of any military efforts that are undertaken. If both features can be read correctly, success can be obtained. If analyzed incorrectly (or if ignored altogether) geography can humble the strongest military in the world.

Saudi Arabia (much like the United States) is learning this lesson the hard way right now.

The town of Mocha was previously contested, but mostly held by Yemeni government forces, which were still clinging to the notion that they (not the Houthis) controlled Yemen, despite the Houthis controlling most major cities and the capital. Most importantly, it is a coastal port city, which allowed Saudi Arabia to land supplies to fight the Houthis. As of this morning, this city appears to be in Houthi control. Whether or not they can hold it after they advanced into the town, is anyone's guess. Controlling the port facilities themselves, while a very small port, is still a major loss of cargo offloading capability that the Saudis were counting on to wage their war against the Houthis. In hindsight, it was probably unwise for the Saudis to bomb dirt next to a runway in Sana'a two weeks ago, because it has snowballed into them losing their main foothold in Yemen on the Red Sea. Even worse, some reports emerged this morning indicating that Houthi forces have captured Zuqar Island, in the southern Red Sea.